What You Need to Know About the Trump Conviction
Last week, American history was made when former president Donald Trump became the first former president convicted of a felony - 34 of them, in fact. Today, Sarah and Beth get into the details of what this conviction means, what may happen next, and the responses to the conviction from people across the political spectrum.
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TRANSCRIPT
Sarah [00:00:07] This is Sarah Stewart Holland.
Beth [00:00:09] This is Beth Silvers.
Sarah [00:00:10] You're listening to Pantsuit Politics.
Beth [00:00:12] Where we take a different approach to the news.
[00:00:14] Music Interlude.
[00:00:30] We are so glad that you're here with us today. We have had a little bit of time now to process the fact that former President Trump was convicted of 34 felonies in the state of New York. We have received many questions and thoughts from all of you. So today we are going to really dig into that topic. We're going to talk about what you need to know, how we're thinking about this, where we are personally going from here and where societally we might be going from here. Now, Sarah, this is probably a bit of a surprise because for weeks we have told people on Fridays beginning in June, they would hear episodes of The Nuanced Life. But our motto is always pivot when we need to pivot. And so, here we are pivoting.
Sarah [00:01:12] Yes. And it's still happening. We have nearly all the episodes recorded and planned to kick off the series next Friday instead. That said, we are also committing to hold all content plans loosely this summer, particularly as we look ahead in the next few weeks to impending Supreme Court decisions and the first presidential debate. Now, you guys, we asked you one time to fill out a listener survey. Our goal was to get 375 responses. And drumroll, please. We already have over 1000. Guys, that is too much. That's too much with the end of May and the beginning of summer, you're overachieving. Everybody go take a nap. That's too much. Tripling the goal as school is ending and summer is beginning. That's some real eldest daughter energy, guys.
Beth [00:02:01] And thank you for it. We love you for it. We're so incredibly grateful. Listen, this is especially meaningful because surveys are aggravating. I hate a survey. I just hate a survey.
Sarah [00:02:11] Yeah, and we don't want to talk about them anymore either.
Beth [00:02:13] Surveys are so aggravating. And it's also just another piece, like we told you that the ad revenue piece of our business has basically crashed and burned at the beginning of this year, and that's been really hard. And we have survived only because listeners pay for our premium podcast and pay above and beyond what we charge for our premium podcast to keep this podcast working. And so, to be able to come to you all (many of the same people who are paying for the show to be made) and say, "Can you just help us in another way?" And then you quickly rise to the occasion like this, we just appreciate it so much.
Sarah [00:02:52] Decimated the goal. That's what happened, just destroyed it in one of the busiest times of the year. We love you. I mean, I am delighted, but not surprised. That's the truth. You guys are the best. That's why we love you so much. I wish I could find new and interesting ways to say we couldn't do this without you, but there's only one way to say it. We can do this without you. That's the long and short of it.
Beth [00:03:15] And, hopefully, the other way to say it is by having conversations that are really valuable to you. So, let's hit it. Let's try to have a really valuable conversation about the conviction of former President Donald Trump.
[00:03:26] Music Interlude.
Sarah [00:03:35] Beth, in my house we play this game; it's called remember. I really like to do it when something recently happened, like, every single day after we went to the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade for at least two weeks, I would just go, "Remember when we were in the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade?" And Nicholas would smile in real size and he's like, "Yeah, I remember. That's awesome." And I'm still in that space with the conviction. So, you remember? Remember when Donald Trump was convicted of 34 felonies?
Beth [00:04:00] I do remember. I do remember, and lots of you all remember. Maggie has been collecting questions for us, and you have many. And they're fair. They're good questions. So, we're going to go through those. And I tried to organize them sort of chronologically, but we're also going to get to some, "How do I talk to my people about these questions?" Because there's a range here. So, let's just start with what is the crime here and why is it a felony. Which we've talked about before, but I do think it's kind of hard to understand.
Sarah [00:04:33] Yeah, it's very complicated. That's very complicated. I think actually the first one to start with, what is the crime here? Is this a state crime or a federal crime? Because people seem super confused about that.
Beth [00:04:47] It is a state crime.
Sarah [00:04:50] State. Not the Department of Justice. Let's say that one more time for the people in the back of the room. This is a state crime. This is the state of New York's business. This has almost nothing to do with the Department of Justice.
Beth [00:05:02] So, as we talked about when we discussed the civil fraud case in New York against Donald Trump, New York has very serious laws about doing business truthfully because they have the financial center of the world inside their state. And so, New York has passed a lot of laws saying you cannot cook your books here. You just can't. You can't lie in business here. Because too much business happens here for us to tolerate that in our markets. And so, the crimes he was charged with were business record crimes, that his business records were false. And that is typically a misdemeanor. What takes it to a felony is when you falsify your business records in order to do another crime. And what made this case challenging? And the reason you probably heard a lot of commentators, maybe including me at the beginning, saying, "I don't know about this, guys," is that the prosecution did not really tell us in the indictment what those other crimes might be.
[00:06:12] This is a difference, again, in the federal system versus the state system. In the federal charges against Donald Trump, we have gotten what are called speaking indictments, where the prosecutor writes the indictment for the public to know exactly what their theory of the case is, the kind of evidence they have. They really tell us a story. The state indictment didn't do that because it didn't have to. It just said, these are the charges, and we'll tell you what we have to say about them in court. And so, at the beginning of this case, Donald Trump said to the court, I don't think there is another crime here. You have to prove to make this a felony, that I falsified my records in furtherance of other crime. And I don't think there's a real other crime that counts.
[00:06:56] And the prosecution came back and said, well, actually, there are several other crimes that count. Breaking tax law is one. Breaking New York state election law is one. Breaking federal election law is one. And then the judge said to the jury in their instructions, you have to find another crime, but you don't have to be unanimous on which one of those crimes it was. And that's probably an issue that we'll see again on appeal. But that's what happened here. The crime is falsifying the records in furtherance of another crime, and you can pick your poison on which of several possibilities that other crime is.
Sarah [00:07:35] I read a lot of reporting about Alvin Bragg, that he was sort of known for this. He's sort of known for the deep pursuit of legal theories, legislative readings, like he went after this multiple prong approach. To the in furtherance of another crime. He was like, we're going to throw everything at it. Let's find a bunch of different ways that he could have been breaking laws by falsifying these business records. And I think, ultimately, depending on what happens on appeal, this has been shown to be an effective strategy, and.
Beth [00:08:10] It is not as novel as people are talking about it. Norm Eisen, who we had on the show, recently wrote a whole book where he examined how often are these types of crimes charged and in what context? And it is not totally new to charge felony crimes related to falsifying business records. There are other cases like this that have been brought in New York. There have been convictions from those cases. And so, I think what really got this case off on the wrong foot, in terms of the story being told in national media, is the fact that we had speaking indictments in other cases, and this one was a little murkier based on the initial charging document.
Sarah [00:08:50] So the next question we got a lot of was, so what happens now? We did write a book, Now What? I guess it's a fair question. So now what? Now that we have the conviction, what is the next step in the process? And so, the next step in the process in the state of New York for Donald Trump, a convicted felon, is that he will be interviewed by the court’s probation department. And then based on that interview, that department will draw up a recommendation for Judge Merchan, as far as what they believe is a fair, right, appropriate, applicable to this particular defendant sentence.
Beth [00:09:30] And then there'll be a sentencing hearing on July 11th. And that will be kind of a scene, because the prosecution will make arguments about what they think the sentence should be. Trump will have a chance to say whatever he wants in that hearing, and judge Merchan will take the defense arguments, Trump's statement, the prosecution's arguments, everything into account and make a decision. And then once there is a sentence that starts the clock for Trump to appeal this verdict. And he will. He has 30 days to file the notice of appeal. And then his attorneys will submit a brief to the appellate court. And they've signaled that they are going to ask for the sentence to be postponed during the appeal, and that they have multiple avenues that they want to pursue on appeal. And we'll talk more about that in a second. But first, Sarah, people really want to know what is the sentence going to be?
Sarah [00:10:19] Well, I think anybody that tells you they know the answer to that question is blowing smoke.
Beth [00:10:22] Absolutely.
Sarah [00:10:25] I had a relative call and say, "Someone tell me there's no way he's going to jail and they're a judge." And I'm like, well, I'm glad they're a judge. But unless they're Judge Merchan and he's told your friend that, then you don't know. There are so many possibilities that to say, absolutely he's going to jail or absolutely he's not going to jail, speaks to a to a level of certainty that I certainly don't possess, and I don't really think anybody does.
Beth [00:10:55] So, let's talk about what those possibilities are. Each of these felony counts is punishable by up to a $5,000 fine and up to four years in prison. Now, can I just take a second and put on my criminal justice needs reform hat to say the fact that we think $5,000 and four years in prison are equivalent to each other or belong in the same sentence, is bananas.
Sarah [00:11:17] Bananas.
Beth [00:11:17] Absolutely bananas. But that's the situation. There is no mandatory minimum here. So, he could receive probation. He could get a conditional discharge. He could get home detention, community service, all kinds of possibilities other than being sentenced. I totally expect him to receive the full amount of the fine possible, based on the responses to the violation of the gag order. Judge Merchant said when he found Trump in contempt, that he was going to find him the maximum amount and the maximum amount here doesn't really contemplate the wealth that Trump has access to. So, I do expect the full fine to be on the table for Trump. Beyond that, I do not know. Most experts say that if he got the prison time, he would probably have to serve it concurrently. So, four years in prison on the upper end of what might happen here. Again, not a guarantee. Nobody knows. But that's kind of the consensus that I've read.
Sarah [00:12:17] And there's been a ton of reporting that he's a first-time offender and first-time offenders don't get prison time. And that perhaps is true, but he's not the average first time offender. Let's put it that way. I think there's this balancing act that Judge Rashawn has to do between saying you are a citizen subject to the rule of law, and also you are different. And I think he did a pretty good job of that in the trial. And I expect to see that same carefulness with the sentencing.
Beth [00:12:42] So, again, normalizing who's looked at all of this carefully, looked at comparable cases and found that about 10% of cases based on felony of falsifying business records have resulted in imprisonment. But it's really hard to draw conclusions because these cases are so unique and fact specific. What we know about George Merchan from the trial is that he constantly talked about balancing exactly as you said, Sarah, the need for no one to be above the law, for justice to be done fairly and without prejudice. And also, the fact that this is a person who's running for president and it is important to protect his rights to speech, to run, and for the American people to get to make their decisions. So, I think on balance, I will be surprised if there is an incarceration penalty imposed here, but I don't think it's off the table. That's where I land. Do you think he should go to jail for this?
Sarah [00:13:38] Do I think someone should go to jail for falsifying business records? No. Do I think someone should go to jail, depending on what crime they were pursuing in falsifying those business records? Yes. And so, I think that's the tough part, because we don't have this unanimous jury instruction of what they feel like the felony act was. But do I think someone should go to jail for falsifying business records, for making this hush money payment to defraud American voters of the information relevant to their decision of who's going to be the next president of the United States. Yeah, I do.
Beth [00:14:21] Yeah, I was interested in your answer because I feel like I can't fairly evaluate this because I just mostly don't believe in jail. And so, I've never had a desire to see Trump in jail because I don't have a desire to see people in jail. I couldn't be a judge that has to impose criminal sentences because I struggle so much with this. I do think this is a serious act that he has been convicted of doing. I followed this case from the beginning. I've read every order that Judge Merchan has entered, and I do appreciate the balancing act that he has tried to achieve. I know that no one will ever give him credit for that, but I feel like he's tried to achieve it. And no one is not fair, because I do think a lot of people have praised his handling of the case as the best you can do under terrible circumstances. Okay, so a couple of really specific questions came in. If he gets probation in New York, what do we do about the fact that he's a Florida resident? I had to look this up, Sarah.
[00:15:21] This is not my expertise. And state law is really specific. So, as I understand it-- and if you are listening and you know different, please email us, we'll correct ourselves. As I understand it, if he gets probation, he will have to remain in New York for some period of time so that he can make a request to his probation officer for a transfer to Florida. And New York's Office of Probation and Correctional Alternatives Interstate Compact unit in Albany would have to approve that request, which I think that they certainly would. He definitely satisfies the criteria for an interstate transfer. And then Florida would have to agree to receive him and take on supervising responsibilities. And both states could set terms and conditions for that. And then once all that's done, he could go back to Mar-A-Lago.
Sarah [00:16:08] Well, and I wonder what happens because. He might meet the conditions of an average citizen. But how do you weigh the governor of Florida saying, "I'm not going to extradite him. This is not relevant to me. I don't think it's valid." Then how does that play in your calculus if you serve on the Office of Probation and Correctional Alternatives Interstate Compact unit. Oh, my gosh.
Beth [00:16:30] Truly, I don't know how you would write probation terms for him when he's running for president. When he's going to travel all over the state and sometimes the world, I don't know how you would do that. And I think that factors like that are going to have to be in Judge Merchan's mind as he's deciding what the sentence should be here.
Sarah [00:16:49] Because probation is a bitch.
Beth [00:16:51] Yeah.
Sarah [00:16:52] So even if he doesn't get jail time, he will most certainly get some form of probation, I would think, unless I guess he directed to community service. But even community service, I mean, all of it is just enormously complicated because of who he is.
Beth [00:17:07] Yeah. How do you impose a community service sentence when the Secret Service has to be with him all the time? This is really a challenge and I do not envy Judge Merchan. Okay. So, the next question we have is will this be overturned on appeal? And relatedly, people want to know if the Supreme Court, as Mike Johnson suggested, could overturn this conviction. So, I mean, yes, straightforwardly, it could be overturned on appeal. And perhaps the United States Supreme Court could be part of that process. So, Trump is going to have to take specific issues to the appellate court. He cannot just go in and say this was horribly unfair and political persecution, you should throw it all out. He will have to say, I think the judge was biased because his daughter has a job in digital fundraising for Democrats, which she does. That is a thing. I'll have to say that.
Sarah [00:17:59] I really wish this whole your children do this and that means X, I'm ready to leave that behind on lots of levels, but whatever.
Beth [00:18:08] Yeah, I do want to say that judge Merchan consulted with the New York State Advisory Committee on judicial ethics about that complaint that Donald Trump has, and they decided that her business interests and his business interests were not directly or indirectly involved in this case. So that's why he didn't recuse himself. He did consult with a state body about that topic. Okay. So, he could raise that. He could say they let Stormy Daniels talked too much about our sexual encounter, and it was a dog whistle for rape, and that was prejudicial to me and so it should be thrown out.
[00:18:43] He will talk about one of the expert witnesses he wanted to call, and the limiting scope that Judge Merchan put on that. He'll raise questions with the jury instructions. He'll go back to whether this should have been a felony or not. There'll be all kinds of things. And then normally two courts in the state of New York would have to pass on those questions before he would even have an opportunity to ask the Supreme Court to get involved. All that said, does that prevent him from filing an emergency appeal to the US Supreme Court and them doing something totally out of the ordinary and unexpected on an emergent basis? It does not.
Sarah [00:19:23] Not this court.
Beth [00:19:24] So I don't want to say anything. I think it's just what you said about the sentence. I think anybody who tells you they know what's going to happen here is full of it, because everything is so unusual. But that's how it would normally go. It would take a very, very long time. And, again, I think it's totally within the realm of possibility that the appellate court in New York says we are going to pump the brakes on him serving any aspect of his sentence while we decide these issues. I think, frankly, that's the way it should be for pretty much everyone. If you have an appeal, I think until it gets sorted out, you shouldn't be deprived of your liberty.
[00:20:01] So I think there are years left of this case, in all probability. And a quirk of New York law is that their Appellate Division can look at the facts, not just the law. Normally, on appeal, they say we totally respect what the jury or the judge found about the facts. We're just looking at legal issues. But they call the New York Appellate Division the 13th juror. It can go in and say, "No, we have a factual beef here." So, there are lots of ways that this could get overturned.
Sarah [00:20:33] Now, there are some questions that we can't answer definitively. Can he still run for office? Yes. There is no disqualification for felons either running for president or serving as president. Now, if we would all like to have a conversation about that, that's fine. But right now, that's where it stands. He can absolutely continue to run for president. He can absolutely continue to serve as president, as a convicted felon.
Beth [00:20:56] And, look, I think that undercuts a lot of what he's out there saying. We are a country where we allow people to run from jail because we don't want to be a country where people in power just put their opponents in jail. And through that silence their political voice and political opportunities. So, in my better moments, I can defend this vigorously. We've had someone run from jail before, a minor candidate, but somebody who was a socialist. And so, if you can imagine in the McCarthy era people who were being accused of communism being put in jail and unable to run for office, that's terrible. That's not who we want to be as a nation. And so, I think it's good that he can still run despite all of this. I think it's unwise. I think it's a bad choice. I think it's really sad. But at the same time, I think in terms of our legal principles and what we're trying to do as a country, the fact that we have only three real requirements to be the president enumerated in our Constitution is right.
Sarah [00:22:01] So, now we get into the tougher stuff, which is how do we communicate about all this with people who think it was a sham trial or that Judge Merchan was a plant. That's a tougher nut to crack when you have people in your life who believe that this wasn't a fair and legit legal process, that any conviction of him is de facto proof of a scam, because that's what he's trained people to believe. What he has trained people to believe is that any election loss is a rigged election, and any legal accountability is persecution. I mean that he has spent months-- you know what rounds me up? And maybe I'm just thinking about this example because Morgan Spurlock just passed away.
Beth [00:22:51] Yeah.
Sarah [00:22:51] But I always think about that moment in Supersize Me, where the expert says, if you sat down at every meal with your children and talked about what nutrition is and how food works in their body, you would still be like 30,000 messages behind the advertising, the food industry and their advertising. That's kind of what this reminds me of. If you go up against someone who has been mainlining this message through hours of talk radio or hours online, then it's a real David and Goliath situation here. That's why we always emphasize the relationship and not the individual conversations, because you're just going to be so many messages behind what anyone who sees these proceedings that way has been hearing, seeing, reading.
Beth [00:23:50] And so, as we emphasize the relationship, I think one way to have a real discussion about this is to begin with the things that you can concede. When people say this was political, yeah, of course it was. Every criminal prosecution is political in a way. We're in bad shape as a as a country that's trying democracy, if we think political means illegitimate. Every time you vote for a prosecutor or a judge who runs on being tough on crime or throwing the book at people or cleaning up the streets, that's political. We send messages.
[00:24:28] These are the types of things we want pursued and the way that we pursue them. It is absolutely a political process. So, people who want to say Alvin Bragg ran on prosecuting Trump, okay, that happens all the time. Doesn't feel great to admit, but it happens all the time. And it's supposed to. That's our system. Then we build a ton of checks around that. As a prosecutor, he has ethical responsibilities. The bar association is part of that. Motions to dismiss are part of that. All of the rules, the jury is part of that. The appellate process. Yes, everything is political. And then we try to build some structures to make sure it's still fair.
Sarah [00:25:07] Well, what they mean though is hypocritical. And, look, I have to own that for most of my life as a progressive, particularly since I graduated from law school, where I was taught criminal law by the former head of The Public Defender's Office in Washington DC, that prosecutorial power has been something that I have cited repeatedly as a problem with our criminal justice system. Because there aren't enough checks on prosecutors. And I'm happy to have that conversation policy-wise with someone who's feeling it from the other side for the first time with this conviction of Donald Trump. Because that is an issue. And I think when people say political, they don't mean political, they mean identity. It's not that we're having some sort of political conversation.
[00:25:51] My dad sent me this thing about Alan Dershowitz and how Alan Dershowitz thought that this was a sham, blah, blah, blah. And I'm like, "Yeah, but he's Trump's attorney." And my dad was like, "Well, he's still a Democrat." As if I'm supposed to agree with every single Democrat ever. I was super confused by this line of argument, but I think that's it. It's like this is a team situation. It's not even teams. It's like this is your tribe, and so you are responsible to agree with or excuse or argue with definitely anybody from your side. I think that's why you see this weird moment where Laura Trump's going after Larry Hogan as the head of the RNC. This person who could flip a seat. But it's really not about politics, right? It's really not about winning elections. It's about loyalty and purity to your tribe. And so, Larry Hogan in saying we should respect this conviction, crossed the line. He messed with the tribe. So, it's not really the goal of winning elections. It's the goal of protecting and staying loyal to the tribe.
Beth [00:26:59] I think another piece of what people mean when they say this was all political is like, he can't get a fair trial in New York because New York is a blue state and everybody knows New Yorkers are more liberal. But think about what we're saying when we say that. It's an extension of what you just talked about. We all agree with every single thing. Do you think that you personally couldn't be fair minded as a juror in a trial because of your party registration? I just don't think that's true of the vast majority of people. And here's the other thing, New Yorkers still count. Liberals still count. Like just as a jury in Texas still counts, a jury in New York still counts. These are people. Our whole system is premised on that.
Sarah [00:27:36] But not to the Republican Party anymore. Not to the Republican Party. They have no desire to say, I could be fair or neutral. The articulation is we will pursue you. This is war. This isn't a process, this is war. We were re-watching The Sopranos with my son. There was an episode last night where basically Doctor Melfi asked Tony Soprano, do you think you're going to hell? And he says, "No, I'm a soldier. Soldiers don't go to hell. Soldiers do what they're told." And I was like, this is it. This is where we're at. There is no right or wrong. There is no process. If you are inside the MAGA universe, this is war. And so, what is allowed? What is sanctioned in pursuit of total victory? Well, anything. Anything and everything. That's the answer.
Beth [00:28:31] So let me do a little bit more on the Judge Merchan details, because I do want to acknowledge that he donated $35 to Democrats in the 2020 elections. He sent $15 to the Biden campaign and $10 to political action groups. Was that a good idea for a judge? No. New York's code of ethics would say no. And also, it's a pretty nominal amount. And, again, I think he consulted with people and searched his soul on whether he could hear this case. And he did. Again, if you have a problem with this, I have a discussion with you about the Supreme Court.
Sarah [00:29:03] That's exactly what I was going to say. These are the same people that want this to go to the Supreme Court so they can overturn it. Cool, cool, cool.
Beth [00:29:09] Also, I would point to the judicial record on Trump. He has had many judges that he personally appointed who have ruled against him in court, because politics do not define how you see every single issue, especially when the law gets involved. So, I think that his career, Judge Merchan's career is very normal. He graduated from law school. He was a prosecutor. He was an assistant attorney general, then a family court judge. He has been doing criminal trials since 2009. He is not a Biden plant. He is not new. He was not appointed by Biden. He has nothing to do with Biden outside of a $15 campaign contribution. That's where we are. And I just feel like, again, if you are worried about this being a sham, you should look at the whole record in this trial and see that Trump won some and lost some. And ultimately a jury decided and now he'll have his chance on appeal.
[00:30:04] If we were a banana republic, none of that would be true. None of that would be true. One person asked us a very specific question and I do not want to ignore it. She said she is hearing from people in her life that Trump has been convicted and all of the Epstein people are walking the streets. And I think this also gets to that sense of hypocrisy and identity and priorities. And so, the first thing I would say is not all the Epstein people are walking the streets. Jeffrey Epstein died in a jail cell. Ghislaine Maxwell was convicted in federal court and is in prison right now for 20 years. She's got another criminal trial coming up and there are so many ongoing investigations and lawsuits. So just not true that that's not being pursued.
[00:30:47] But it also speaks to a sense that everything is zero sum, that I don't think is correct. I don't think that it makes sense to tie those things together. And I think that's a tool of distraction from the issue here, which is even if you think he shouldn't have been charged, the case shouldn't have been brought, he shouldn't do it in in New York, do you think he did these things? That to me is the salient question for voters. Do you think he did this? It's entirely consistent with his character, his history, his life. Do you think he did this? And each person is in a position to evaluate that without deciding that we want to throw our entire system away because of this guy?
Sarah [00:31:24] Personally, I'm not talking about Jeffrey Epstein ever again. I'm done. I don't think it serves one millimeter of justice for the women abused and affected by Jeffrey Epstein. It is a further exploitation of the suffering that they experienced. And I'm done. I'm not going to talk about that, man. I don't want to say his name. I don't want it in my mouth. I don't want to hear other people talking about it because it has lost all meaning, all perspective. And it is massively disrespectful to the women who were abused during his time on this earth.
Beth [00:32:02] I think that's both true, and I want to give people a weigh in with the people in their lives who they feel like they can still have real conversations with. So, that's how I would respond to that piece. Last question, and they're going to take a quick break and come back and talk about some of the reactions to this verdict from elected Republicans and where things are going. People want to know (and I love this question) are the jurors going to be safe? This is another don't know. Their identities have not been disclosed publicly. If I were betting, somebody on that jury is going to talk to a reporter eventually or write a book or something. It'll just be up to them to decide if they want to come forward, and if they do, how they do it, and when they do it. And then we'll see how the public responds.
[00:32:43] Music Interlude.
[00:32:54] Sarah, on a scale of one to 10, what is your level of surprise about how elected Republicans have responded to the Trump verdict?
Sarah [00:33:02] Zero. Not surprised. I knew they would do what they have shown themselves capable and invested in doing every single time, which is legitimizing him as he becomes a bigger and bigger political liability to the party.
Beth [00:33:19] I think I would put my own--
Sarah [00:33:21] It's like they're addicted.
Beth [00:33:22] Reaction like a five. I just maintain some capacity to be surprised. And I was especially surprised by how transparent Mike Johnson was about this on Fox and Friends. Let's listen to Mike Johnson for a quick second here.
Audio playback- Mike Johnson [00:33:38] Well, there's a lot of developments yet to come, but I do believe the Supreme Court should step in. Obviously, this is totally unprecedented and it's dangerous to our system. I mean, we've all discussed this before and you all talk about it all the time. This is diminishing the American people's faith in our system of justice itself. And to maintain a republic, you have to have that. People have to believe that justice is fair, that there's equal justice under law. They don't see that right now. And I think that the justices on the court-- I know many of them personally. I think they're deeply concerned about that as we are. So, I think they'll set this straight, but it's going to take a while. You're right. The process takes a while to play out. The Democrats know that, of course, and they're dragging it down. That was the whole objective. They want to try to bankrupt Donald Trump. They want to diminish his credibility and go after his character. They wanted to keep him off the campaign trail, which they were successful in doing for many weeks. And now they want to call him the convicted felon. This will be overturned, guys. There's no question about it. It's just going to take some time to do it.
Beth [00:34:36] To just say out loud, those are our guys on the Supreme Court and we trust them to figure this out. It's pretty blatant.
Sarah [00:34:43] I appreciate his honesty and transparency.
Beth [00:34:46] Would you like to say more about that?
Sarah [00:34:48] I mean, if they're going to behave this way, I'd prefer them to just take the Donald Trump approach and say the quiet part out loud. We don't care about the American people. We're not invested in any sort of policy outcome. The only thing that matters, because the only thing that matters to Donald Trump is the only thing that matters to us, is loyalty. Mike Johnson is dependent on Democrats at this point to keep his job. I also thought all the reporting about his mentorship with John Boehner was particularly fascinating and interesting.
Beth [00:35:22] I was kind of bummed about it, too, honestly.
Sarah [00:35:24] So, I guess there was some surprise that I thought he had grown as a speaker and understood and made some hard calls and did it anyway. But I think as far as the compartmentalization that happens inside the Republican Party and Republican leadership with regards to Donald Trump, compartmentalization is probably not a big enough word. We probably need a bigger word. And I think that the more it happens, the more it happens. It has its own momentum. And then they're not just in need of an endorsement from Donald Trump. They need the fundraising. They need the media hits. They need the exposure. They need the party activist. They need the consultants and the infrastructure that supports you as a candidate and as a legislator. They need all that to do their job to be who they are. And it is all intricately tied up with Donald Trump at this point.
[00:36:24] So, I've almost gone from feeling disgusted to almost feeling pity for the way that they have to prostrate themselves to this idol. Because that's what it's like at the level we're getting to. Like, he's embracing Jesus. Jesus was the other one that was crucified on a cross. It has taken a real turn, and it reminds me of 2016. The worse he got, the worse Hillary Clinton had to get to justify a vote for him. And so, she had to murder babies and all kinds of stuff. And so, it's the same journey. They're tied up. And so, they have to just continue to justify and justify and justify.
[00:37:12] And what I'm most interested in is what happens if he loses the presidential race. Then what happens? Then what will they do? Then what is the path forward? Because it does feel like this path leads off a cliff. I think the only vision they see is a path where he wins. I guess the Republican leadership and Republican Party can be as blind to the possibility that Biden could win as so many of the party bases. But you would think people who do this for a living and who have lived through so many losses for him, either 2020 or their midterms, could see that, but maybe not. Maybe not.
Beth [00:37:51] Sometimes I wonder if they just don't want him to win. If they're all doing this and they're just happy and content to stay in a position where they're not really responsible for that much of anything. Because they've blown it in the House of Representatives. They've absolutely blown it. You won't find many people who disagree with that. Even the most hardcore conservatives are mad that they haven't gotten things done. To the more centrist members, people are retiring from all wings of the party. Like, they've blown it when they've had real responsibility. And so, maybe the hope is to not have real responsibility and to let Democrats keep the car on the road and be able to say that they're doing it wrong, and that Democrats are the ones taking us off a cliff. And to just kind of keep in this cycle where you got enough seats and enough districts and enough media share to keep the wheels spinning financially and be able to complain about everything but not have to do much.
[00:38:51] When you listen to what people are telling us they're going to do about this, what you hear is that Republicans are now the defund the police party. Democrats had that slogan for a while, but all that we're hearing legislatively from Republicans right now is about defunding lawfare. Well, that's defunding the police. You want to take money from the FBI, they're police. They want to take money from state and federal prosecutors leading politically sensitive investigations. That's defunding the police. So that's their deal now. And then you have eight Republican senators, which it's a list that would be easy to see as people who wish they could be in high level positions in a future Trump administration saying, we're not going to do our job anymore. We're not going to vote for spending bills. We're not going to vote for judicial nominees. We're not going to vote for any legislation brought to the floor because we think this is so egregious. And these are people who understand the difference between a state prosecutor and a federal one, still trying to pin this on the white House.
[00:39:53] The White House has made a mockery of the rule of law, they say, and fundamentally altered our politics. Well, again, the White House has nothing to do with this. And I imagine that if the White House had the power and control over the Department of Justice that they are expressing, Hunter Biden would not be on trial right now by this Department of Justice. That is a federal prosecutor trying the Hunter Biden case. It is federal prosecutors charging Democratic Senator Bob Menendez and Democratic Representative Henry Cuellar. If the White House was doing everything in this banana republic capacity and keeping Merrick Garland on the shortest leash, deploying him only for political ends, I think a lot of things would be awfully different right now. I think the first lady would not be holding on to her tearful daughter in court, watching Hunter Biden's dirty laundry about his addiction and his relationships be aired for the entire country.
Sarah [00:40:49] The only thing I'm a little bit encouraged by in the way that they've reacted and amplified his message, is that in those often-infuriating articles where some major media outlet goes and interview swing voters who are still undecided, the like 10 people who have the power to sway this election, they say all kinds of things. And I'm like, where do you live and what do you read? It's like they blame Biden for the return of Roe v Wade. Or they say Biden hasn't gotten anything done, but Trump got so much done. But the one thing that they do say is they understand that if Trump wins, it will be about retribution and revenge and that he will tear it apart. That does seem to be getting across, and it's not a positive message for most wing or moderate or centrist voters. And so, the way that they continue to amplify this message of we will get our turn and we will seek revenge, and we will use the power of the federal government that you elected us to help improve your lives to destroy our enemies. That's what we will do. We're telling you as clearly as we possibly can.
Beth [00:41:53] Just a quick meanwhile a little update on the other criminal matters concerning the president. In Georgia, the racketeering lawsuit has been put on hold by a Georgia appellate court until at least October. You might remember that the prosecutor in that case, Fani Willis, had an affair with Nathan Wade, a lawyer she hired to work with her office. In the case, several defendants, including Donald Trump, moved to have her disqualified because of that relationship. The judge handling the case had a long and very dramatic hearing about it, wrote a long-considered order, the result of which was that Nathan Wade had to go from the case. The defendants who raised the disqualification issue appealed the judge managing the case, Judge McAfee, was continuing to decide motions and kind of keep that case moving toward trial. The appellate court now has said basically everything has to stop, and they have scheduled oral argument on her disqualification for October 4th. So, we're just not going to see anything before the election out of the Georgia prosecution.
Sarah [00:42:58] And then in Florida, Judge Cannon, she shuffled the schedule again. She's going to hold a June 21st hearing on whether Jack Smith was illegally appointed. She canceled a three-day hearing set for June 24th, on whether Trump should be able to access communications between prosecutors and government agencies. She might hear Trump's motion to exclude any evidence the FBI discovered when they searched Mar-A-Lago. I mean, she has passed doing a bad job. I think we have reached negligence and arguably corruption at this point. And I wouldn't throw corruption around lightly, especially considering we had a ProPublica report that all these witnesses in the criminal cases against Donald Trump have gotten raises and jobs and severance packages- basically been paid. So, I don't think the idea that that someone has reached Judge Cannon is out of the realm of possibility, because she is behaving in a way that fits no regular order or average spectrum of judicial management.
Beth [00:44:00] I struggle with how to talk about this because, again, I believe in our system and I believe our system has terrible flaws in it. And so, look, if Judge Cannon is corruptly or just incompetently managing this case. We have an appellate process for that. The appellate process cannot speed this up and get it to trial before the November election. So, that to me is the big point right now. This trial is not going to happen before the election. And if Donald Trump is elected, this trial will not happen. And those two things I am sure about. But if the case goes forward, most of this can be corrected, just not the timing.
[00:44:42] And the timing is a really big deal in this case. And so, it's tricky because our system, I believe, has lots of ways to try to get us back on track when individuals take us off track, and not everything can be remedied on the other side, and that it's hard to hold those two things together. Speaking of timing, the Supreme Court has still not ruled on the immunity argument in the D.C. prosecution related to January 6th. So, again, the timing of that changes the outcome for the country in a lot of ways. And also, we don't know what their ruling will be. So, Sarah, that's the landscape surrounding the criminality. Any final thoughts before we wrap up this conversation today?
Sarah [00:45:26] I think the conviction meant so much to me because as a person who has watched the behavior and decisions of Donald Trump for so long, I believe that he should be held accountable outside of the electoral system. I wish more Americans were on board with me. But I think I'm realizing watching the fallout that a lot aren't, that they just think they should be to the ballot box, that everything a president does should just be decided at the ballot box. And that is hard. And I hope that we don't stay in that space forever. I just think we've been in that space for so long as a country that he's testing our system because our system has never had to deal with something like this.
[00:46:12] It's not untrue that presidents have done illegal, terrible things before, but I don't understand why that means he should be allowed to, too. Maybe this is the moment where we say, yeah, that's true. And we shouldn't keep it like that because it's damaged our ideas around the office of the presidency, around our federal government, around our democracy. And it's just hard to witness that. It's hard to watch us work this stuff out live because the stakes are so high and he is so uniquely terrible. So, I'm still trying to hold on to the accountability and what it meant to me and still grieve the fact it doesn't mean the same thing to everybody.
Beth [00:46:54] One of the questions that came through from you all was, "Will this matter?" And I hope that the summary of this conversation can be, yes, in a million different ways. And some of those ways will be in tension with each other. And people will make different forms of meaning of it, and ultimately it will figure into people's voting calculus in a lot of different ways. I see the post from people saying, "This has made me more MAGA than ever." Okay. And I see the posts from people saying, "I can't vote for a convicted felon." And in my heart, this is a good indicator that no one is above the law. But I also try to hold on to the fact that it could be overturned on appeal, and I need to accept that and be comfortable with it, too, because this isn't about prosecuting him because I think he was a bad president or shouldn't be the president again. It is about a test of our system, and our system needs to pass that test at every level. So, it will matter, but we just can't say all the ways in which it will matter. And we can't say that they will be in harmony with each other because we are a big, messy country.
[00:48:00] Music Interlude.
[00:48:12] We always end our show talking about what's on our minds Outside of Politics. And, Sarah, you told us about your summer plans a few weeks ago, and one of those plans was to go to a music festival. And you have now been, so tell us about your experience.
Sarah [00:48:25] I've been thinking about this a lot, and I think last summer when I jumped off 40 foot and it changed my whole life in Dublin, it set off this real change of heart, change of perspective, change of outlook. Which is for so much of my 20s and 30s, I was building this list of things I don't do, that I don't love. I don't love cold water. I don't love sports. I don't do music festivals. I don't like jam bands. All these different things that I thought, this is who I am. And since I jumped off 40 feet, which was very, very cold water and it was this like magical, spiritual, amazing experience, I thought, okay, well, what else was I wrong about?
[00:49:02] When I say I don't do heat or I don't like this or I don't love loud sounds, what else am I getting wrong? What else am I missing out on because I've told myself I'm a person that doesn't enjoy this. And I've said before on this podcast that I'm not a music festival person. I got all these messages. You got to give them another chance. Particularly because people probably correctly believe that I at least need to go to Brandy Carlile's girls just want a weekend in Mexico once because I love her so much. But I thought, well, let me try out a lower stakes music festival first. So, this started because I really wanted to see Noah Kahan, because I love Stick Season. Do you love this song?
Beth [00:49:37] Yeah, and he's great.
Sarah [00:49:38] It's such a good song. He's got lots of good songs. That's his like most famous song. And I thought, oh, I'd like to see him in concert. So, I started looking up his tour. I saw he was at this festival and then the second headliner was Chris Stapleton. I love, love deep in my heart-- you know what I mean? It's a real love, not just like I like his music.
Beth [00:49:59] Also, a rich voice he has. A really complex instrument that's--
Sarah [00:50:03] Well, he's the triple threat, right?
Beth [00:50:04] They can sing anything.
Sarah [00:50:05] Because he's also an incredible musician and a guitarist. Because we have this conversation around the music festival. This is a good question for you. So I went with our friend, Catherine, who was your freshman year roommate. There's a fun intersection. What's most important to you? Lyrics, their voice or their ability to play an instrument. These like three pieces components.
Beth [00:50:34] I'm not trying to skirt your question, but I don't think I can really answer it because I just love all of those things and I will sacrifice one for another. I appreciate Taylor Swift's music mostly because of her lyrics. I could listen to Brandi Carlile sing something that made no sense whatsoever, because I think her voice is so interesting. I love watching The Chicks because of that fiddle playing. Unbelievable, right? I mean, they have other things too. But what I'm saying is I can just hold them all together or separately or not. I just like music.
Sarah [00:51:09] Well, mine is more like if I'm putting it in a pie. If I'm dividing up the pie. Mine is probably like 20% instrumentality. Like, their ability to play an instrument very well. Probably-- okay, so how much? Let me do the math here. So, I have 80% left.
Beth [00:51:37] See, this is a hard exercise.
Sarah [00:51:39] So I'm just dividing that last bit a little more than half. So, the lyrics are going to edge out the voice, but only by 5%. So, like 45, 35? Like, just barely. Because Noah Kahan, he has a good voice but the lyrics get me. And so, I'll go see him even though I don't think he's like this incredible vocalist or like guitar player. But Chris Stapleton gets me because the lyrics are so good. And also, his voice is incredible. The voice is really important to me. When Brandi Carlile sings, when she does that warble, I told my friend it feels like my soul is being mended. Where there are tears in my spirit, it feels like her voice runs in there, like some sort of healing water and knits it back together. That's what it feels like to me. And so, Chris Stapleton it's just he's all three. I'm very impressed by his guitar playing. But I would not go see some sort of bassist and I'm just supposed to sit there for five minutes and watch the guitar playing. There was a little bit of that, but just enough for me personally.
Beth [00:52:49] But I love that, too. I mean, I just think there's something magical about all of it. And I maybe the reason I'm resisting this hierarchy is because I don't like to diminish someone. I don't like it when people are like, well, she doesn't write her own songs. Well, I don't care. She performs the hell out of them sometimes, right? And I'm not even thinking of a specific she, just these are arguments that you have. Well, this person doesn't play an instrument. Well, so what? Or maybe they don't sing well and they don't write their own stuff, but their stage presence is magical. I just think you can't always put your finger on what connects you to a performer or a performance. And that's part of what I love about music festivals. You get to sample so many different ways of making that magic, and find people that you wouldn't have found. Like you go for the headliner, but then you get introduced to all these other ways of feeling that magic.
Sarah [00:53:40] Yeah, I think it's not judgment for me. It's just observation where my emotion lies. I don't feel emotion during a guitar solo the way I feel emotion in my in my heart space. When he sings, "I saw your mom, she forgot that I existed," there's just like a whole novel right there in that line. Like, that gets me. That just that hooks me. But I think other people probably do feel that emotional reaction to a guitar solo. That's not where I'm at. But the music festival itself, it rained on us so it wasn't some perfect experience. There were lots and lots of people, but it was really great. In particular, I think for most of my 20s and 30s, I only went to concerts where I knew every word to every song. I mean, when I go to a Chick's concert, I know every word to every song. When I go to a Brandi Carlile concert, I know every word to every song.
[00:54:38] And there was just something so special when Noah Kahan came out, we came up to the front with the masses, and we were the oldest people there by 20 years and the surrounding group of 100 people as I looked around. They were all very young. They all knew every single word. I did not know a lot of his music, but I know all of it. And I don't know, it just felt amazing. It felt so amazing to be surrounded by all these young people, just ecstatic with this artist, and the way that he was speaking to them and putting words to their experiences. It was just effervescent. I felt lighter, I felt younger, I felt it was so magical. I felt hopeful about that state of the world. It was so fantastic. Now, that was not true for Chris Stapleton in the next [inaudible]. It was a great concert.
[00:55:38] It was an older crowd. It was a more mixed crowd, but with Noah, it just felt really special to be there with all these people. Like, he's not for me, obviously, and my life experiences. And I think in like previous times I would have let that limit me. I would have let that exclude the experience. I would have told myself, it's not for me. But as I get older, I'm trying to really think instead of controlling and curating my experience, what happens if I just open myself up to something new? Because as you get older, you can tell yourself there isn't anything new available. And so, it was just really special to be there with all these kids. I'm sorry [inaudible]. All these kids surrounding me and just so, so happy to be there with this artist. It was fantastic.
Beth [00:56:37] A practice that I have really committed to avoid catastrophizing, is to let myself catastrophize for just a few minutes. And so, this thing you're describing of I can let go of "I'm not a person who." I get into that maybe once a week. When I think something really devastating could happen, I just let myself imagine that it has. Which has helped me let go of a whole lot of ideas about who I am, because I have to think who would I be without this or without that or if this all fell apart. And I do think it's really freeing. I also love to go to a concert where I know every word to every song.
[00:57:11] But I think concerts in general are just fun because of that effervescent feeling. And I think you can get it with a crowd that's a lot younger. You can definitely get it with a crowd that's a lot older. We go to a lot of concerts at Riverbend in Cincinnati, where older bands tend to play, and it is so fun to be in a crowd full of people where you're the youngest by 20 years, and people are just so excited to reconnect with this music of their youth. It's a gorgeous experience. We're going on a full 90s tour of concerts this summer, starting with Hootie & the Blowfish tonight. And then we have Foo Fighters coming up and Green Day and Sarah McLachlan with Feist. I'm so excited.
Sarah [00:57:54] I love Feist.
Beth [00:57:55] And kind of culminating we see Garth Brooks again in October in Las Vegas. So, we're just doing like a 90s tour. And most of these shows, I'm going to know every word to like five songs and the rest will kind of be familiar but not in my bones that way. And I still just-- man, I love a concert atmosphere. Any live music. Can be somebody singing while you're eating dinner over there, doing covers, all the way to music festival. I think there's something so transformative.
Sarah [00:58:29] Have y'all gone to a lot of music festivals? I know you do concerts, but I wasn't sure if you're festival people.
Beth [00:58:33] We did a couple of festivals before we had kids. We have not done a lot since. The most fun one we've done, and we did have kids actually when we went to this one, one of Chad's clients invited us to a country music festival way out in the middle of nowhere, Ohio, and we knew almost no one performing. I think the headliner was Florida Georgia Line, which is not my kind of country music. It was still just a total blast. The people watching was phenomenal. I enjoyed the music even though all of it wasn't my cup of tea. I'm always down. I'm always down for something like that.
Sarah [00:59:05] Well, now the people watching was fantastic and it did fire up some of my older predilections. I just need people to put their butt back in their pants. That's it. It's a simple request. I'm not trying to shame. I just would like the butts to go back in the pants. I think we've apparently decided they don't have to be in pants and I disagree. That's just where I'm at as a human. I disagree with the idea that your butt doesn't have to go in your pants. I think it does. That was my only sort of negative experience with the music festival. I would like the butts back in the pants.
Beth [00:59:39] Well, let's mark it down now and come back in a couple of years and see if you have an experience that transforms you into a person who doesn't feel that way.
Sarah [00:59:45] If I shift on the butts in the pants, then I have experienced a real like scale from the eyes, life-transforming moment, because I feel pretty firm in that.
Beth [00:59:59] Look, stranger things have happened and I applaud the ability to remain open in the world.
Sarah [01:00:02] Fair enough.
Beth [01:00:03] Thank you all so much for joining us today. We're going to be back with you on Tuesday with our different approach to the news, including a conversation with Doris Kearns Goodwin, who is a real celebrity to a certain kind of person. And I hope that you all are those people and that you will really enjoy that as much as we did. Next Friday, loosely hold the idea that you'll hear an episode of The Nuanced Life. We hope that you will, but we'll see. We're very excited about all the things we have planned for you this summer, and about going with the flow for the things we don't have planned. Thank you again for all of your generous support and encouragement. Everybody, has the best weekend available to you.
[01:00:36] Music Interlude.
Sarah: Pantsuit Politics is produced by Studio D Podcast Production. Beth: Alise Napp is our managing director. Maggie Penton is our director of Community Engagement.
Sarah: Xander Singh is the composer of our theme music with inspiration from original work by Dante Lima.
Beth: Our show is listener-supported. Special thanks to our executive producers.
Executive Producers: Martha Bronitsky. Ali Edwards. Janice Elliott. Sarah Greenup. Julie Haller. Tiffany Hasler. Emily Holladay. Katie Johnson. Katina Zuganelis Kasling. Barry Kaufman. Katherine Vollmer. Laurie LaDow. Lily McClure. Linda Daniel. The Pentons. Tracey Puthoff. Sarah Ralph. Jeremy Sequoia. Katie Stigers. Karin True. Onica Ulveling. Nick and Alysa Villeli. Amy Whited. Emily Helen Olson. Lee Chaix McDonough. Morgan McHugh. Jen Ross. Sabrina Drago. Becca Dorval. Christina Quartararo. Shannon Frawley. Jessica Whitehead. Samantha Chalmers. Crystal Kemp. Megan Hart. The Lebo Family. The Adair Family.
Sarah: Jeff Davis. Melinda Johnston. Michelle Wood. Nichole Berklas. Paula Bremer and Tim Miller.