How Scared Should We Be That Trump Won the Iowa Caucus?

TOPICS DISCUSSED

  • Iowa Caucus Results

  • Outside Politics: Snow Days and Winter Weather

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TRANSCRIPT

Sarah [00:00:09] This is Sarah Stewart Holland.  

Beth [00:00:10] And this is Beth Silvers. Thank you for joining us for Pantsuit Politics.  

[00:00:14] Music Interlude.  

Sarah [00:00:34] Thank you for joining us. Today, we're talking about the results of the Iowa caucus. The very expected results still feel very hard to take. So we're going to be processing that here together today. And as winter has arrived across almost all of the United States; Outside of Politics, we're going to talk about snow.  

Beth [00:00:50] Just being cold. It's awful. Okay. We are fully in the swing of the presidential election cycle now, and we would very much like to be a valuable resource and support system for you over the next few months. We take it seriously when we say we take a different approach to the news here. So we would love to just walk through this election season with you, which we know can be very stressful in normal times. And these don't feel all that normal. It's our job to help you stay informed without burning out. So we would love for you to be here for every episode and share the show with your friends to continue to help us build the Pantsuit Politics community. We absolutely love hearing when you're talking about the show in real life with your people, so thank you for sharing those stories with us and for sharing our work with them.  

Sarah [00:01:33] Up next, the 2024 presidential cycle has officially begun, with the voters of Iowa making their voices heard in the Iowa caucus.  

[00:01:42] Music Interlude.  

[00:02:00] Beth, first, I would like to level set with some numbers because it is a big deal. So the Iowa caucus, it's the first time Americans are officially voting (or something adjacent) in the Republican primary. I also voted in the Democratic primary in the Iowa caucus. They're just not going to reveal those results until Super Tuesday. But it's official we've begun. However, we're talking about 110,000 Republican voters across the great state of Iowa. Not a lot of people. And of those 110,000, a definitive majority, 57,000 voted for former President Donald J. Trump to be the Republican nominee for president. I Just want to say that one more time, 57,000 people. That's what we're talking about today, 57,000 people.  

Beth [00:02:56] I, too, have repeated that number to myself numerous times this morning, and was the first thing I said. I walked into an exercise class, the instructor said, "I would like to talk with you about politics today." And I said, yes. And I just keep reminding myself, this is not a lot of people. And if you hear the stories coming out of Iowa and you think, well, that's weird, that they put the ballots in like a popcorn bucket. It's also important to remember the caucuses are run by the parties. Primaries are run by states. So it's just a different scene all around. Also noteworthy that it was like -22 degrees and snowing and just treacherous to be out and about in Iowa yesterday. So I think that this comes with a lot of asterisks. And at the same time, I think the undeniable truth is that Republican primary voters want their nominee, by and large, to be former President Donald Trump, and that that is the reality that we are cruising toward.  

Sarah [00:03:57] Well, I think what I'm coming around to is I just don't think there is a Republican primary voter, at least not one you can speak of as a group. I mean, yeah, he got a majority. But if you put the people who voted for Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley together, they're just shy of one. I mean, that's still a big group of people who don't want him to be the nominee. I don't think it's enough, unfortunately. At least it wasn't in Iowa. We'll see what happens in New Hampshire. But I just have to remind myself too, like, I just think the Republican Party is so splintered. It's so broken up at this point.  

Beth [00:04:32] I think the trouble is, you don't get to put the DeSantis and Haley voters together. Because for many of the DeSantis voters, Trump is their second choice. And for many of the Haley voters, Trump could be their second choice. I have no idea. The people who are splintering off from Trump cannot reasonably be called Never Trump. That's a teeny teeny percentage of people voting in these primaries. And, unfortunately, it looks like the general election is likely to be Trump versus Biden, which means that to defeat Trump, you can't-- like people aren't persuadable in that matchup. You just have to build the biggest anti-Trump coalition that you can. And that is just not something that anyone feels a lot of enthusiasm for as we're sitting here in January, but maybe that will change.  

Sarah [00:05:22] Yeah. I want to stay with the Republican Party for a minute, because I agree with you, we don't know who so many of those voters second choices are. And I can be of two minds about that. I can hear people say, "I think it's time for a new generation." Or "I just think he is so divisive, but I'm a Republican." And I think, should that be encouraging to me or discouraging to me? I don't really know the answer to that. It is frustrating to me, obviously, as a person here in 2024 that people don't look at Donald Trump and say, absolutely not. In my heart of heart, I believe there is a majority of Americans who say absolutely not to him, particularly as his criminal indictments continue and those trials continue, and he becomes more prominent in people's conscious, as we've sort of talked about here. But this is so frustrating to me that identity is so strong. Even Kim Reynolds was like, well, yeah, I'll still vote for him. I'm a Republican. The governor of Iowa.  

Beth [00:06:28] Nikki Haley said it. Nikki Haley said she would still vote for him.  

Sarah [00:06:32] And to me that's indicative of how we got here. Not just within the Republican Party, but in the general populace. I think we're all frustrated by the fact that this seems like what the matchup is going to be. And there's a part of me that's like, well, what did we expect? What did we expect when we've treated politics like this for decades, even for the last 10 years where we were just at each other's throats, acting like our fellow citizens were a threat to the Republic. There's a part of me that's like we are reaping what we've sown. But then sometimes I get in this space where I'm like, the division here is not between Democrats and Republicans. The issue is not the people who say, "I'm a Republican. I'll vote for him anyway." For me, when I listen to focus groups or just exit poll interviews, the division is still between the people who pay close attention and the people who barely pay attention. And I just can't decide where to put my attention.  

Beth [00:07:28] One hundred percent. I listened to an excellent episode of the focus group podcast, Sarah Longwell Show, and she had Ann Selzer, who runs the Gold-standard Iowa poll, on to talk about this race. And this was before the caucus, of course. And Ann Selzer was saying, in Iowa, to win the Iowa caucus, you have to expand the group of people who show up to caucus. That is the whole ball of wax, especially with Donald Trump. You will not eat into his supporters. But there are so many people who don't show up. And so the chance that you have is to go get them. And that's what team DeSantis said they were going to do. They put all this money into Iowa and they had this huge ground operation, and they said they were going to go get new people to come show up for Ron DeSantis. And it just didn't happen. And I am no fan of Ron DeSantis at all. I think he has some legitimate complaints about how this has been covered, as so inevitable. I don't think this was rigged, but I do think it's bad that in a caucus setting, everybody goes at the same time. It was being called for Trump before people were finished with that process. I think that's silly and wrong and contributes to this overall malaise that probably kept a lot of people in Iowa at home, along with the weather yesterday.  

Sarah [00:08:51] Yeah, it's the malaise that I think is bothering me because I hear people say, "Is this the best we've got? Is this what it's going to be?" I don't hear anybody saying, "So this is what I'm going to do about it. This is who I'm volunteering for. This is where I'm going to go work."  

Beth [00:09:05] Right.  

Sarah [00:09:05] It's the sense that politics is the same and corrupt and inevitable on both sides is why we have this matchup that nobody's happy with. But unless you personally are doing something to disrupt this matchup, then I don't see how that doesn't contribute to the malaise. Because we have built this environment largely because our political system works well to maintain the status quo we've all built our lives on, that allows us to sort of criticize but not do anything right. We can just say, "Ugh." That seems to be the overall emotion, right? But what does "ugh" get you? Where does that take us? Ugh, is discouraging people from running for office, so there's not a deep bench of other options. Ugh, is the same 110,000 people that always show up, showing up and steering the results. I would like to hear more from inside the DeSantis camp. I think it sounds like a good strategy. It sounds like they didn't execute it for a lot of complicated reasons, because I think when you have a ground game and if it works, it works.  

Beth [00:10:19] It's also true that Trump had a ground game this time. He didn't personally go to the dinners and the pizza parlors and all the things, but he had a team in place. It was a totally different situation for him than in 2016. He had a very professional operation. They had a precinct captain everywhere. They had special hats for the precinct captains. They were white with gold letters, so they stood out among the other MAGA hats. This version of Trump running is not the off the cuff, I'm a good businessman, people know my name, so I'm going to win. This is a professional political operation. He is the establishment of the party now. And so, in addition to all the structural advantages that team has built through working with state and local parties to change rules, they also have the personnel on the ground. They are staffed up.  

Sarah [00:11:11] Now, that part is concerning to me for sure. I mean, because so much of beating Donald Trump is just depending on him never missing an opportunity to miss an opportunity, and that will still be true. The fact that he has the momentum from Iowa that he is taking to New Hampshire is going to be disrupted by a side trip to New York City so that he can face a second defamation hearing with E. Jean Carroll, because he won't keep his mouth shut is key and important. But I think acknowledging the reality that this ground game will be there for the people who are never going to vote Democrat, ever, is concerning to me. It is worrisome. And I don't want to ignore those concerns just because I think Donald Trump still is facing 91 criminal indictments and that's going to be harder and harder for the voters to ignore. I do, in my heart of hearts, believe there is an anti MAGA majority. I think the midterm show that, I think the previous presidential show that. I think we get third party candidates like RFK in, it will deflect from Trump more than Biden. But I don't know. I get in my own head about how much am I just wanting to see what I want to see. I had a friend text and say, like, how scared should I be? And I didn't respond because I don't know the answer. I don't know the answer to how scared we should be.  

Beth [00:12:27] I don't know what to say in my own mind right now about the fact that even 57,000 people still showed up on a bitterly cold night to caucus for Trump. I get most upset when I think about that professional political operation, when I watch people like Marco Rubio endorsing him at this stage, when there are other candidates, when you could be a Kim Reynolds who tried at least. I can't stand Ron DeSantis, but I appreciate that Kim Reynolds tried in Iowa to make a difference here.  

Sarah [00:12:54] I do, too.  

Beth [00:12:54]  We know so clearly what he is, who he is, what he's about. The track record is so obvious that I'm not even upset with him as a person anymore. It's just like, how are all of these people, all of these people falling in line? And then I read stories that include journalists talking about it as though it's inevitable. he's going to win. They had to endorse him. They feel like they don't have a choice but to be on Team Trump at this point. Mike Lee over the weekend tweeting out, well, it's a binary choice. It's Trump or Biden. Well, it's not yet. It's not a binary choice yet. And you are supposed to be a leader in this party. And that's where I just feel totally unmoored, because it seems so clear to me that he's an unacceptable option. Be a Republican before a Republican. Think Joe Biden is the worst. Hold whatever you think of as conservative values. I can understand and respect all of that. I just can't understand the institutional support at every level for someone who doesn't even care about this party and has told everybody so every way he knows how.  

Sarah [00:14:07] That's what's so frustrating to me, and that's why I think this is a malaise that we perpetuated. As long as the most important political fact about you is your party identification, I don't know how we get out of here. Short of him dying, I just don't. Because that's what ends up being the determinative factor. If we can't say like Liz Cheney who's trying desperately to remind us what we stand for, to say, "No, what draws us together as Americans? What matters to us as Americans? What are we here doing?" Then I don't know. I'm just going to live my life and I'm going to vote the way I've always voted. And there's just this default that we fall to in American politics. And I think that default is how we got to an election that isn't about the future, isn't about what we want the country to be. It's only about Democrats versus Republicans, the sort of standard-bearer and Joe Biden the standard-bearer, and Donald Trump, because that's what our politics is. It's not a politics of ideas. It's a politics of partisanship. That's how we got here. 

Beth [00:15:28] And I don't know that his death even is enough to disrupt that. Were that to happen, were either of these people to die before the election, I don't think it disrupts that partisanship. I think that existed before him. He capitalized it, he supercharged it, and it follows after him. I think that as I listen to more focus group-oriented podcasts, read more pieces like the one we discussed in our last episode from the New York Times, it is just so deeply ingrained that we don't trust each other. There are a lot of quotes coming out right now where people are saying things like, yeah, you know what I'm sorry to say, but maybe the United States does need a dictator. Well, that is indicative of a lack of trust in your fellow citizens. That's all that is, right? We need a dictator because the left has gone so far. Because people are too woke. Because whatever test of morality or religious purity you're imposing is not being met. That is just an indicator that we do not trust each other.  

Sarah [00:16:29] But how am I supposed to trust someone who wants that?  

Beth [00:16:30]  I know.  

Sarah [00:16:32] That's the problem. How am I supposed to trust fellow citizens who have super anti-democratic principles and ideas? I just don't know where this ends. I don't know how we break free. I am encouraged by how many of our listeners are trying to understand. What I hear from our community is not they're the worst? What I hear from our community is I am trying to understand. I'm really, really trying. And I think that has to be the first step. That has to be the first step, because I really don't know how we get out of this when it's just as simple as your partisan identity is the center point of American politics. I just think that's how we got here. And, look, I'm not trying to say that they are the same. They're not. Joe Biden is not Donald Trump. I don't care how old he is. But the overall sense of malaise is an overall sense. It is present on both sides. It is present with Republicans I talk to. I've talked to Republicans who are like, really? It really feels like we're in this game of chicken and I don't understand it. I don't understand where neither side will blink and say, if we pick somebody else, they definitely win. If we pick somebody young and different, they definitely win. I certainly don't understand on the Republican side. I really, really, really don't.  

Beth [00:17:56] You almost wish that you could just do what you would do with kids. It'd be like, okay, one, two, three, everybody's going to blink. [Inaudible] somebody new. Because, look, if this race were Ron DeSantis versus Gretchen Whitmer or Josh Shapiro, I have no idea who would win that election. None.  

Sarah [00:18:15] Yeah, I don't either.  

Beth [00:18:16] I have no idea. If we really introduced all the people who don't pay a lot of attention to politics, to two pretty new figures for them, and we're far enough past Covid that it can't really be about that anymore, and abortion is out there, but maybe it's not top of mind at the exact moment people go vote, I don't know what happens in that election. And I think that would be very healthy for everybody to just truly not know, because then maybe people do get motivated to engage again, to go volunteer with the campaign, or work, or just get excited about this congressional race in my state or whatever. Because I think the down ballot suffers too, by the fact that everybody's like, well, it's just going to be Trump and Biden. And so people are going to turn out for them and they're just going to vote the ticket for each of them, and we'll see who gets over the hump.  

Sarah [00:19:06] Well, I really hope that the down ballot provides some more energy. And I do think the analysis will change. I think we will get more and better information as people actually vote and don't just caucus. I really do. I think we'll get more and better information from New Hampshire. That doesn't mean I think Donald Trump won't be the nominee, but I do think that will be helpful and better information. And I just keep reminding myself we do not know what's going to happen. There's still a lot of time. And honestly, I have to do my old psychological trick from college where I'm like, I will blink and it will be 2028. And hopefully if we don't like Donald Trump, he doesn't shred our democracy after all. I'm trying desperately to understand people and not reject anyone. I think what you said about Kim Reynolds is important. I don't like her answer, but I respect that she endorsed Ron DeSantis and tried. And we have got to hold that. And I don't love it when someone says, "I just liked how it was under Donald Trump's presidency," because I don't understand that-- or at least I understand it, but I don't agree with it. And I don't know, we just have got to get in a place where it's not, ugh!  

[00:20:17] Music Interlude  

Beth [00:20:35] There is an energy in the world right now-- if I can just be real woo-woo for a second-- that I feel like in every way says battles are not won now. This overall malaise about this election, to the extent that it is just a battle between these two sides, nobody wins that. We all feel terrible about the fact that that's where we are. Ukraine is in a stalemate. The situation in the Middle East looks to be escalating, and no one wants it to escalate because I think everybody understands that just means prolonged battles that don't actually win anyone anything. And they just hurt a lot of people and a lot of places in the process. The more we approached Covid as a battle, the less progress we made, right? And so now we're just kind of at this place where, like, I guess a lot of people are just going to get sick a lot of times a year. And we'll like let it die down and then come back and then let it die down again. But it's just like living with it instead of actually making progress. And so I totally agree with you. I want to find places in myself where I'm not just like, well, Trump is terrible and bad for democracy, and the people who support him are against everything that I think is important. That is not helping. That is not helping, so what would? And I get a little stuck there. I'm honest about it. I just I'm getting a little stuck there, except in being willing to say I understand these pieces of policy disagreement you have, or I understand this frustration that you have with the state of things right now. I understand why you think Joe Biden is too old. I also get, from the perspective of a lot of the people in our audience who are doing this kind of work saying, I'm trying, trying, trying to understand the frustration of feeling like that is never extended in their direction. Who's trying to understand the Never Trump voter? Who's trying to understand the Democratic base? Who's trying to understand all of the people who want to get out of this prolonged battle? And that is frustrating. We wrote in a book, though, that you don't have to receive grace to give it. So I'm just trying to hang on to those principles.  

Sarah [00:22:46] Well, I think what's so heartbreaking about that is it does feel like the world is crying out for a future vision and new solutions.  

Beth [00:22:53] Yes.  

Sarah [00:22:54] And I'm not sure I see it in leadership anywhere. I'm not sure if there's a world leader right now who I look to and think, that's it. That's what everybody needs to be listening to. And maybe because we've progressed past that, maybe this sort of vision of a savior who's going to offer this FDR vision or whoever you want to fill in the blank with, is just the world is bigger and more complicated and more connected than any one person can lead us out of. Maybe that's what we're facing this sort of transition away and transformation into a different kind of not just American politics, but global politics. And we're in the messy middle. That's sure how it feels to me. It doesn't feel like a beginning and it doesn't feel like an end either. It just feels like a messy middle I don't agree with nor think it is helpful to do this sort of like end stage empire, this is America's death throes. I don't agree with that. And I think it's really, really cynical and unhelpful. But I do think we're evolving into something else. I mean, we were on Erica Mandy's show, The Newsworthy, and I talked in the interview with her that like, I'm trying to figure out what rules still apply and where we're rewriting the roles. I think for the most part, we're rewriting a lot of rules. Or we're realizing that the old rules didn't work and hadn't worked for a long time.  

[00:24:17] I have to believe that our generation and the generations younger than us, we'll have a different way. We'll have a different vision. If they're ever allowed to get their hands on the wheels of power. And they have and they are in many, many places in American civic life, in states across the nation and cities and city councils. It's just hard. I just think that the feeling that the weight of the malaise and this feeling that we get a break from that every four years. We usually get a break. We get a presidential election where we get some energy, even if it's not the kind you liked. I think a lot of reasons people are so loyal to Donald Trump is because what they felt in 2016 is what they'd been hoping for eight long years of Barack Obama, which was a new vision and an affirmation of many of the things they felt. They felt that passion, they felt the vision. Now, it was not the vision I wanted for America, but it was a vision that millions of Americans did. And so I think that once you feel that, it's hard to let it go. It's definitely hard to let the person go if they won't ever leave the actual stage of American public life. And I think we're all feeling that sort of frustration of like, this is when we kind of circle back up. And even if we're fighting, we're having a conversation about what comes next in America. And I think the sort of heartbreak and frustration of this moment is it doesn't feel like we're having that conversation.  

Beth [00:25:46] I totally agree with that. We need some new energy. We need somebody to surge. We need, like, all of those little pieces that make it fun for political hobbyists and interesting at all to people who aren't interested about politics and we and we are not getting that. The other thing that I am trying to be open in my heart to about Donald Trump, is that he provides a weird type of comfort that is a bit of an antidote to things that people have been worried about for several years now. Donald Trump just seems uncancelable. And where you have a lot of people who have felt this sense of scarcity like, oh my gosh, all the rules are being rewritten, all the things are changing. We are in the middle of a transformation. What am I going to lose in that process? I think there is something on a very primal level in seeing Donald Trump have staying power that just feels good. It just feels affirmative. Like, well, I can hang in too because I'm not nearly as bad as he is. Even the people who love him know that they're nicer people for the most part than he is. That they don't hurt people in the way that he does. They don't have 90 felony counts. Like, if he can hang in, then I can hang in too. And there is a piece of me that can understand that. I don't know a healthier way to get that comfort out in the world, but I would like to find it as well.  

[00:27:15] It just becomes clearer to me all the time that we are really not talking about politics when we're talking about Donald Trump, we're talking about something so much more fundamental than that. But there is no one else bringing that out in people. And I think you're right that we aren't in a world anymore where there can be like an FDR or a Churchill or that kind of one person who really speaks to everybody. Everything is niche. We don't even have one TV show. Football is the closest thing to mono culture that we have. But I still think we're humans who fundamentally want to follow other humans and are inspired by big, sweeping stories. That's why people got so attached to Volodymyr Zelensky for a time. And to have a race where we aren't finding those new people is tough. Nikki Haley was looking pretty good in terms of raw numbers ahead of the Iowa caucuses. But her enthusiasm levels were very low. And there's a piece of me that's like, well, that's kind of healthy. We don't need to be so wrapped up in our political leaders that we're so gung-ho about them. But on the other side of it, motivating people to action when they're not enthusiastic about a person, it just doesn't happen in our system. So if we could get new faces and new energy in the process, even in more niche ways like where's the bearer and the succession of our politics to fire some people up?  

Sarah [00:28:36] Well, and I just wonder if it needs to be among ourselves and not waiting for some leader. And I do wonder if that will only come when people realize what's on the line. I am worried that it would take the reelection of Donald Trump for people to understand. You think you want a dictator, but you have no idea what that means. You have no idea the cost that would exact on the global stage, and how that would affect our economy, and how that would affect so many things. I think that's the case we have to make to each other, is what are we standing for? And listen, for better or for worse-- and I can say this because I'm a Democrat and I can talk about my mom if I want to. It's hard to make the case that we have something worth fighting for when the Democratic Party has spent years telling everybody how terrible America is. How racist we are, and how sexist we are, and how all the systems are broken. And we're in late stage capitalism and the empire is dying. And now we're supposed to turn around and say, fight for our democracy? For what reason? What exactly are we fighting for? And I don't think Joe Biden argues that. I think partly that's why Joe Biden won. It's because Joe Biden said there is something worth fighting for here. But do we mean that? Do we mean that? I worry. I worry sometimes that there is a fundamental weakness in that argument. I think that's why you see weakening of Democratic support among immigrant populations and the Latino population, and even the African-American population. People don't want to hear, let's fight for something that's fundamentally broken. That's not a winning argument. And also, for what it's worth. It's not true. I don't think it's true. I think America is a great country. I think we have a lot to offer our citizens and the world. I think the leadership of Joe Biden has shown that. And I know not every American agrees with me, but a free press and the rule of law and the power and sovereignty of a people to choose their own governance is worth fighting for. It's worth it.  

Beth [00:30:46] I will just say, though, that I would like to pull back from the fighting language, because while we have some people who think it's not worth fighting for, we have some people who think it is worth literally fighting for. And I don't mean that either. I'm not asking anybody to pick up a weapon, or to die, or to do what we ask of our troops all the time. I am just asking you to vote for someone who might not be your favorite. I am just asking you to vote all the way up and down the ballot, and maybe spend a few minutes on the internet before you do that finding out what those people stand for. I am asking you in so many ways not to fight, but to bring the temperature down. To say, I might not have agreed with the way that President Biden conducted the withdrawal from Afghanistan. I did not. And yet I think President Biden, if he does not receive the most votes, will concede. I think if he loses the election, he will lose the election. And right now that has to be my top priority. So it's like this weird mix of asking people to value what we have and also to value the comfort in which we can continue to have it, if only we will allow that.  

Sarah [00:31:58] Well, I think the tougher part of this, and the thing we haven't touched on, is that democracy is being violently defended right now in parts of the world in which we are closely allied with that fight. I think the war in Ukraine and the war in Gaza, and increasingly expanding conflict in the Middle East is weighing upon people's minds. I think we think Americans don't care about foreign policy, but I don't think that's true. I think if you listen to those focus groups, it comes up pretty regularly that people understand that there is a lot of violence out in the world, and some of that violence revolves around the right of a people to define their own destiny as a nation. And I think that has to be a part of our conversation in our calculus to say, what is America's role? Because I think there is a lot of protectionism as an argument. We say that we're not arguing about ideas, but maybe that's not fair. Maybe we are as Americans. Maybe the conflict around the border is a conversation around ideas. And maybe when these focus groups bring up the fear and unsteadiness they feel because of these conflicts in Ukraine, in the Middle East, they are naming ideas about America's role in the world and what that should look like. Maybe the issue isn't that we're not talking about ideas, but maybe that we're not honoring the ideas people are articulating when they say they'd support Donald Trump.  

Beth [00:33:39] I think it has to be true that people are feeling burdened by foreign policy issues because of how frequently my kids say, "Are we about to get into another world war?" I just think that is filtering through that people are scared. I am. I don't like news that American ships are being attacked in the Red sea. That psychically weighs on me. And it psychically weighs on me to think that Vladimir Putin just rolled his troops into another sovereign nation and continues to fight for that nation to become part of his territory. That really bothers me. I think some piece of my brain said that humans had evolved past that kind of territorial behavior, and the fact that we haven't makes me very anxious. I am here for that feeling. And if I lean into that hard enough, I can have a different view on the southern border. I can at least see where people are coming from. I think all that's true. The other thing that I think is really complicated about this is a lot of what we're asking people to consider from the Democratic side is protection of anti-democratic aspects of our republic. It is true that it would be anti-democratic to remove Donald Trump from the ballot, but it would also, I think, be constitutional, because our Constitution is a balance of pure democracy with systems where small groups of people say sometimes the majority gets it wrong. Our courts are anti-democratic by design because we say sometimes the masses take rights away from individuals. Sometimes the masses say we can't trust each other, we must need a dictator. And our system is designed to say, hold up there. That might look good to you in the short term, but in the long term, you're part of something bigger than what you think is needed in this particular moment. And so that's really hard to articulate and defend and persuade people around too, especially when so much of it is exceptionally complicated.  

Sarah [00:35:52] Yeah. And that's what you hear. I just think that the depth and complication of his particular legal vulnerabilities just caused people to shut down. They just go, well, there's so much of it. Instead of saying there's so much of it, some of it must be true. It's like there's so much of it. They're just going after him. Now, I think some of this is because we're early in the process, and as the process continues and is covered more and more, and he is more and more being seen as the party nominee, I hope that changes people's calculus. I hope they see that he is weak. I hope if people didn't vote for Hillary Clinton because of one stupid press conference, then this will matter as well. And I think that's true. We're reading Democracy in America. Alexis de Tocqueville's seminal piece on American politics and the American populous. We're going to read along in our premium community. We're about to launch that. And he's spent so much time on that in the beginning. That there is a sovereignty of the people. But also from the beginning there was this sense of like, yeah, but sometimes they could get it wrong. Sometimes they get it wrong. For example, the Electoral College, which paradoxically, was set up to protect from the majority getting it wrong. How about that? And I just think that maybe that's it. Like we're stuck. We see the things that are wrong, but we don't want to change anything. I don't know if that's the malaise, if that's where we get stuck. We do realize that maybe America isn't fundamentally broken, but there are systems and processes that are desperately in need of improvement, but it involves risks to improve those processes. And it's not bad enough to take on the risk, but it is bad enough to check out of the process. We're just in a pickle. We're in a real, real pickle in American politics right now.  

Beth [00:37:41] I am also reading this textbook called The Key Texts of Political Philosophy, because I just am really searching for what are we doing here? What is all this about? What are we missing? And in the introduction, the authors spend quite a bit of time talking about the importance of leisure and how the classical definition of leisure was not just to escape, it was to talk about what really matters in life. And by that definition, we have almost no leisure at this point. I'm observing right now that more and more people are kind of apologetically saying to me that they want to talk about politics. This is what I do for a living. I'm a professional talker about politics, and people are apologizing to me when they want to bring it up. So I think the malaise begins with this idea that this is all terrible. It's too terrible to even discuss in polite company. Why would anybody want to do it? And meanwhile it simmers more and more deep in each of us. I think the fact that we both feel this pull toward Socrates and the classic texts on organizing communities of people around a common goal, means that that's out there in the universe far beyond us. And the people are searching for it, and we don't really know how to connect with each other.  

Sarah [00:39:06] And I do think there are things that tie us together, not just our democratic principles and what we're doing here. Because, yes, a lot of times somebody will say something in these focus groups and I go, what? But often I'll be like, no, they're nailing it. A lot of people bring up the cost of housing. Yeah. They're right. who's talking about that? Who's naming that? Who's coming up with solutions to that? They'll name something like the cost of groceries, which is true and right and accurate. There's always enough there that I think I agree with that. I agree with that. I don't see a lot of leadership on this issue. And it's tough because what is the president of the United States supposed to do about the cost of housing? We've nationalized our politics in a way that now even local political issues are the president's problem, when we should have been going the other direction. And maybe we are. Maybe that is an indication that we are starting to go the other direction. I really do hope the presence of these down ballot races at least provides some texture to all this. So we're not just staring at each other going, "Biden-Trump again, huh? Wow." Like something. Anything. There's a part of me that's like at least we're moving forward. I don't know into what, but I was done with the months and months leading up to Iowa, Trump and Biden, huh? Wow. Truly to God, now that's Iowa caucus is over, we can move into a different level of analysis and a different level conversation, not just in the media, but among ourselves as citizens. And we will be here for that conversation. We love having it with each other and with all of you. Up next, we're going to talk about cold weather.  

[00:40:51] Music Interlude.  

[00:41:03] Beth, Axios reports that 1 in 10 Americans list winter as their favorite season. And when I posted that in the Patreon news brief, many, many of our listeners said, "Me too. I love winter. It's my favorite season." I'm just giving you that preamble because I have a feeling that you do not have warm things to share about the current winter season, as it has rolled in pretty strongly across the United States.  

Beth [00:41:30] Yeah, 9 in 10 of us don't have winter as our favorite season. That's what I would say back to you. Nine in ten of us don't. And you winter extremists, I love you and I want to be in community with you, but I hate this weather. I hate it, and I hate all that comes with it. My church is right now activating our emergency cold shelter. I hate that kids are standing out for the bus in the dark, freezing. Just everything that comes with this says the world needs to basically shut down for at least a month, and there's no shutting down of anything. And so I feel like it's just a fight. I feel like winter is a fight and I don't enjoy it.  

Sarah [00:42:07] Well, I just do want to say, though, people die from heat than cold. Never forget. Because heat sneaks in there and gets you in a way that cold does not. Cold announces itself pretty strongly. You walk out the door, you're like, "Oh no, I have to go back inside right now." I mean, I love it. Now, this is a little cold for me. My peak temp is 48. We are far from 48 right now, guys. We are very, very far from 48. It's like four degrees here in Paducah. But there's snow on the ground and I love it. I love snow. I love the sun as it sparkles on the snow. I love to see the snow fall. I like songs about snow. I like movies about snow. I like to read about the snow. I love snow, so I'm here for that aspect of it. I love snow days. Although, as my kids get older, it's less of a hassle. I mean, it sucks. Don't get me wrong, but they entertain themselves. As long as I just turn off all blocks on all screen time. It's fun.  

Beth [00:43:01] No, I think you're wrong about all this. I like maybe one good snow around Christmas. Lovely, magical, great. Kids could sled once. That'd be fabulous. After that, I'd be happy to open the pool again. I don't want any part of this.  

Sarah [00:43:18] Pool. Too much heat.  

Beth [00:43:18] When I walk outside and my lungs feel cold immediately. And this is too cold and we shouldn't live this way. And I recognize that I live in Kentucky. There are you guys out there in the world are living with a lot more cold than I am for a lot longer than I am, and I don't know how you do it. I chose to live here in Kentucky, to stay here in Kentucky, in part because of the mildness that we have. And I'm worried that with global warming, we're losing the mildness. It's just going to be really, really hot and really, really cold.  

Sarah [00:43:48] I would like to make a case to you, and I think I would be supported by our friends, so many of our friends who live in Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin. That is a real, real center point for Pantsuit Politic support. Okay. There is no bad weather. There is only bad gear. I think I would make the case that perhaps you say a pool because you have built all these ways to enjoy the heat. It is not pleasant to walk outside also and be sweating immediately. But you have built a lot of structures and support for enjoying hot, hot weather. So I would make the case that we need to figure out some structures and support and some good gear to also enjoy the cold, cold weather. Nicholas and I've walked every day. I just have on some like little ski overalls. I put on my winter boots and my coat get something over our face. We walk the dog, we're out in the cold. We're enjoying the cold. You just got to have better gear. We're going to go skiing. There's lots of fun winter activities. Do you see what I'm saying here, though? We build all that around summer. It's 95. Sucks. And it's 95 for like three months. So also dangerous, also terrible the second you walk outside. But you have a pool, you've built ways to enjoy the heat. See I'm saying here?  

Beth [00:45:05] I do. And I do have some good winter gear. I bought some base layers recommended by one of our listeners. I'm practically living in them right now. 

Sarah [00:45:14] See.  

Beth [00:45:15] I still hate it. I do. Just like you don't like the summer. That's fine. I'm not going to try to convince you that 95 is grand. I'm just telling you that I personally find this time of year terrible. And my kids believe that if it's cold, they should have to do nothing. Like this morning my kids did go to school and they are devastated by it. They think it is outrageous. And I get it. Everything in my body also says watch a movie, take a nap, heat some soup.  

Sarah [00:45:41] Hibernate.  

Beth [00:45:42] That's all I want to do. Read my book maybe for a few minutes, and then maybe fall asleep with my book in my lap. That sounds fantastic.  

Sarah [00:45:49] Yeah, see, that's why I like winter.  

Beth [00:45:50] But the problem is, it is the resistance between the reality of what must occur and that fantasy of how we might live through winter. That is my problem. I think I could be okay with this if I actually were able to hibernate, but since we are fighting with it, it's a problem now.  

Sarah [00:46:07] See, I do think this is key because that's why I don't like the summer. The summer feels like enormous pressure the whole time. If it's nice outside, if it's not raining and the sun is shining, you should be out enjoying the sun. You should be outside. There's all this pressure to go outside, go outside, go outside. Whereas, if you go on a 20 minute walk and 10 degree weather, you're like, look at me, I'm done for the day. That was amazing, what I just accomplished. And I think some of this might be like schedule. Like our schedule really slows down in January and February. So there is a lot of hibernate. We have whole entire weekends with nothing to do. You need to work around that. You need to change that academic team schedule so that you don't have to go to academic teammates in the cold. That's the problem.  

Beth [00:46:46] Yeah, we ramp way up January through March because of my academic team.  

Sarah [00:46:49] See, that's not good. 

Beth [00:46:50] And I understand why they do it because a lot of other things ramp down so kids can participate.  

Sarah [00:46:55] Makes sense.  

Beth [00:46:57] We love these kids and we believe in what we're doing with them. But it is a lot of time in the cold in addition to everything else. Because our kids are musicians, so their schedule doesn't change. We're just lessons and activities and all the normal things plus, so it is an upward commitment time for us.  

Sarah [00:47:16] Yeah, I feel like our January and February in particular is super empty. We have like one thing to do this month. We have an event that Nicholas and I are going to. There's supposed to be a Boy Scout camp out. We'll see. But if it's too cold... Hibernating is really my preferred state. I've been doing the New York Times puzzles. Nicholas and I have watched like six movies. I've drank so much hot chocolate. I'm begging the fireplaces go on all day, every day. I love it. I love it so much. 

Beth [00:47:45] Well, good for you.  

Sarah [00:47:47] We need to ask our cold weather people what's the pool equivalent for cold weather? What do you have in your life, in your backyard, that allows you to enjoy the cold. I guess just what? Like a ski slope? I don't know. That's a good question for our community. We know we have many, many, many of you cold weather dwellers in the Pantsuit Politics audience, so we look forward to hearing from you. And also the rest of you. If you just miss Summer and you're sad, we'll listen to you too. We will provide a safe place.  

Beth [00:48:18] The 9 in 10 of you that feel that way. That's cool.  

Sarah [00:48:20] The 9 in 10. Hey, some of those people might be Fall, okay? They're not all summer. There could be some fall and spring in there as well. Just saying. We will be back in your ears on Friday. We hope that you will share this episode with a friend as we move further into 2024 so we can all be here together having these civic conversations. Until then, keep it nuanced y'all.  

[00:48:39] Music Interlude 

Sarah: Pantsuit Politics is produced by Studio D Podcast Production. 

Beth: Alise Napp is our managing director. Maggie Penton is our director of Community Engagement. 

Sarah: Xander Singh is the composer of our theme music with inspiration from original work by Dante Lima. 

Beth: Our show is listener-supported. Special thanks to our executive producers. 

Executive Producers: Martha Bronitsky. Ali Edwards. Janice Elliott. Sarah Greenup. Julie Haller. Tiffany Hasler. Emily Holladay. Katie Johnson. Katina Zuganelis Kasling. Barry Kaufman. Molly Kohrs. Katherine Vollmer. Laurie LaDow. Lily McClure. Linda Daniel. Emily Neesley. The Pentons. Tracey Puthoff. Sarah Ralph. Jeremy Sequoia. Katie Stigers. Karin True. Onica Ulveling. Nick and Alysa Villeli. Amy Whited. Emily Helen Olson. Lee Chaix McDonough. Morgan McHugh. Jen Ross. Sabrina Drago. Becca Dorval. Christina Quartararo. Shannon Frawley. The Lebo Family. The Adair Family. 

Sarah: Jeff Davis. Melinda Johnston. Michelle Wood. Nichole Berklas. Paula Bremer and Tim Miller. 

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