Donald Trump: Master Politician?
TOPICS DISCUSSED
The 2024 Trump Coalition
What to expect from the second Trump Adminsitration
Outside of Politics: Common Ground Pilgrimages
Episode Resources
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A SECOND TRUMP ADMINISTRATION
Opinion | The Democratic Blind Spot That Wrecked 2024 (The New York Times)
Who Trump has picked for key administration positions so far (AP News)
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TRANSCRIPT
Sarah [00:00:07] This is Sarah Stewart Holland.
Beth [00:00:09] This is Beth Silvers.
Sarah [00:00:10] You're listening to Pantsuit Politics.
Beth [00:00:12] Where we take a different approach to the news.
[00:00:14] Music Interlude.
[00:00:29] Thank you so much for being here with us. It has been a week since the election and we're still receiving results and processing them together. Today, we're going to share more of how we're thinking about the landscape post-election, as well as some initial things we're hearing from the Trump camp as they plan the transition. Outside of Politics, we have a super exciting announcement to share with you. We're going to take a group to Switzerland next year with common ground pilgrimages, and we'd love to invite you to come along. We just went on one of common grounds pilgrimages this weekend. So we're going to tell you about that experience and what we are planning. We also have an exciting announcement to share. Sarah, you want to tell the people?
Sarah [00:01:04] Yes. Today is our first episode with our new network, Lemonada. Lemonada has been impressively changing the podcast game for several years now. I've always been so impressed by not only their work, but the values that are clearly backing up the work they do. If you got tired of me talking about Wiser Than Me with Julia Louis-Dreyfus, that a Lemonada podcast. They're just doing really incredible work. And listen, it doesn't affect you guys at all; just except that we're hopefully going to have fewer and better ads. So that's the only hopefully thing that you're going to notice from this change as listeners. But we're just really excited to be joining the team over there and we wanted to share that with you.
Beth [00:01:51] You might see the Lemonada media logo added to our podcast logo. We're really pumped to join forces with them. But everything we said in our episode about the state of the podcast is still true. We own the show. Lemonada is not going to tell us what to make or how to make it. They are just enthusiastically supportive of what we're doing here and we of what they're doing. And we think they are so excited to have this audience join their larger audience as well. So Huray for change and fresh starts and new beginnings. The other thing we want to share is that we know it's time to get serious about the holidays. I'm getting very serious about the holidays. We were gone all weekend and approximately all of the Christmas presents that I ordered came in while we were out. And my dining room table is just a sea of boxes and packages now. We know that some of you would like suggestions on what to buy for the Pantsuit Politics listener and your life and we're here to serve. We want to make it super easy for you to be able to share our show and everything that we have to offer with your loved ones or friends or for you to treat yourself. So we will link the Pantsuit Politics Ultimate Listeners Gift Guide in our notes, or you can find it on our website: pantsuitpoliticsshow.com. Next up, let's talk more about the election.
[00:03:01] Music Interlude.
[00:03:09] What strikes me today, Sarah, that we did not know fully the last time we recorded an episode, is that it looks like the American public has given Republicans the keys to the entire car. We know that Republicans have taken control of the Senate. They'll have probably 53 seats in the Senate. We know that Trump received 312 Electoral College votes to Harris's 226 and has won the popular vote. That margin is unclear because they're still counting ballots. Right now it looks like about 3.6 million. Probably will be a little less than that when all is said and done, but who knows? The House is still not called. There are 16 races left to count, but Republicans have 214 seats and they need 218 for a majority. So that's what it looks like as we sit down to record today.
Sarah [00:03:53] Yeah, there are some real heartbreakers among those who have lost particularly in the Senate. I'm sad to see John Tester go. I'm sad to see Sherrod Brown go. I'm not all the way ready to call Pennsylvania yet, but it looks unlikely that Bob Casey Junior will win. And same in the House. And I agree, I think that it is likely that it will be a trifecta. Not by a lot. It's not a mandate. This is not a massive margin, which I think that the Trump administration and the Republicans in Congress will interpret it as. And we can talk about what that means I suppose in a minute.
Beth [00:04:29] I wanted to spend a second on why we don't have all those House races counted yet. Most of these races that we're still waiting on are in California, where every single voter receives a ballot by mail. And California will count those ballots as long as they were postmarked by Election Day. So the process is designed to go slower. And then when you receive a mail in ballot, there's like a lot of stuff to check. There are security envelopes. There are all kinds of procedures to make sure that voting by mail is safe. And if you messed up any of that, California will give you a chance to cure it. So California counties have 30 days from Election Day to finalize their results. That's just very different than other states. It's fine. As you can see, life is moving forward based on what we know today, and there's nothing nefarious about it. It's just built into California's process to be a little bit slower.
Sarah [00:05:20] I'm wondering how you're interpreting the early voting mirage, as some people have called it, or the mail-in voting where we didn't have a massive turnout. We thought we were going to. Lots of people stayed home. Also, an important factor when determining whether or not you have a mandate. Just for the record. But I think it was interesting to feel like you were just seeing picture after picture after picture of long lines, long lines, and then there not to be massive turnout. I remember reading on X one point that was like, this will be the highest turnout since the 19th century. And that turned out not to be true. We're watching this process in California just take forever. Like if the mail-in voting doesn't increase turnout, all it does is stretch out the process, I don't know. Maybe I have some questions.
Beth [00:06:10] I think it's a time for lots of questions. Part of what we heard in the really disappointing performance of ranked choice voting in this election, is that people like simplicity. People want to know the election results quickly. They want the voting process to be as simple as possible. They do not love this stretched out process, even though I would say that these are pro-democracy measures. I would love for everybody to get a mail-in ballot. I think you should have until Election Day to return it. I think counting the ballots slowly is a way to make sure that our elections are fair, safer and more secure. That just does not seem to be the mood of the American public. I'm surprised that the turnout is ending up much, much smaller than we anticipated.
[00:06:54] I think it reinforces something you and I have been talking about for a long time. That people who are into politics are really into it, and the people who aren't really, really aren't. When I think in my own community about how many people, including me, waited in very long lines to vote on those early voting days, I think that's because we were all really enthusiastic and there were people who just slid in on Election Day and maybe could have stayed home because they aren't so enthusiastic. And that is a dynamic that continues to increase. I will also say I think that Republicans can fairly interpret this as a mandate. I think if Democrats got this result, they would. I think if the numbers were reversed, Democrats would say the country is clearly with us; we have all of the levers of government and we are going to use them. We're going to expend this capital.
Sarah [00:07:42] I disagree with you so hard on that.
Beth [00:07:44] You don't think Democrats would say they had a mandate if they got this kind of result?
Sarah [00:07:47] Yeah. Ezra just wrote a great column about like that's a mistake. Listen, let me be clear. Yeah, the Republicans have a mandate. I want them to lean all the way in and make all the mistakes because they don't have one. Doesn't matter whether you think you do. Winning is not a mandate in our current political environment. That's not a mandate. I think that the 2022 election made Democrats falsely feel that they had this strong anti-Trump coalition, which they did not have. They had high propensity voters. They had people who pay attention to politics. They had them firmly. But that's not a mandate. And having a 1 to 2 point majority of low-propensity voters is not a mandate either. But look, again, yes, if Donald Trump was sitting here, I'd be like, you have the biggest mandate. Do your worst. Because that's a mistake Democratic presidents have made. It's they think they have a mandate from the voting public. And I think Joe Biden did this to a certain extent. That was an exquisitely close election. And he decided that we could go to the left on a lot of things because people were done with Donald Trump. I have a reminder hanging on my wall every day that we were the podcast to get you through post-Trump America, of where we should all have humility in interpreting election results especially as mandates.
Beth [00:09:13] Maybe what we're saying is that it's hard to have a mandate in America 2024. I think that's probably the truest thing. But I also believe that he won as decisively as you win in a closely divided America. And he moved a lot of places to the right, and those places are diverse. This is not the heartland versus the coast. Across the country we saw a shift rightward. And so I'm not going to be surprised if they get in and start doing it, because I think that if you win an election you got to go in and spend your political capital. This is something that I really agreed with Tim Waltz about. You don't win an election to keep your powder dry. And I think they won't. And I think that's a fair interpretation of these results.
Sarah [00:10:01] I think it's really hard. There's so many layers to this. Absolutely the states that swung the hardest to Trump were blue states. California and New York, they swung hard. I mean, like 10 points in Native American lands. These are just not the expectations that people had. And so I think absolutely I don't worry about this coming Republican era. That we're just stuck here now in 20-30 years of Republican rule. I've been there before in my life when America was less divided than it is now. Did not turn out to be true. So the tough part is, yeah, I hear Tim Waltz. I get it. I get the inherent logic of that. But if we're ever going to get out of this spiral your turn, your turn, your turn and build any stability into our policies that can actually make a difference in American's lives and around the world, then maybe the political capital is used building more political capital for the next term. Because I'm just wondering, like, are we going to have a two term president in a row? I guess maybe I'll just trade off like this. You take your first term. I'll take my first term. You take your second term. I'll take my second term. I don't know if that's going to build the best policies for America.
Beth [00:11:18] I don't think it's going to build the best policies either. I'm just in a real let me reckon with what is kind of place right now. A lot of media that I usually listen to and find really insightful sounds delusional to me right now. Talking about, well, here's what we should do, and here's how we should fight, and here's where it's going. And no one can know for sure what's coming. Trump is, if nothing else, unpredictable. And I would think we could all agree around that word. And no one has any control. They have one. So they're going to do what they're going to do. And I'm not sure when I look at what the public has expressed, that a whole lot of people don't care enough to vote. Okay, that's a choice, too. That is a vote in a way- to not show up. So a whole lot of people don't care enough to vote. And a whole lot of people voted knowing full well what they were voting for. And a whole lot of people are vehemently opposed to what's coming. Okay. So in that landscape, maybe the public wants it to be your turn, your turn, your turn. Maybe they don't want stable public policy. Maybe people are okay with whiplash in the way that the levers of government are exercised. I don't think they will be if it changes as dramatically as it could change under this administration. But perhaps that's a lesson that the country is going to have to take. Perhaps that's the lesson the country is asking for right now.
Sarah [00:12:48] I do struggle with the everybody knew what they were getting. I really struggle with that one. It's not the same people as 2016. Some people died. Some people voted for the first time. Some people were 18 and voted for the first time. Some people were 55 and voted for the first time. Some people, when they're low-propensity voters, actually don't know what we're talking about. That's what I'm really struggling with. I'm really trying to face who's the Trump in their head and how do I argue with that Trump? Because if it's corruption, I think that's a feature, not a bug. I think the fact that he makes money off our government and the contractors and the conflicts of interest, it's a feature, not a bug to people. Because I think people say if he gets his but he fixes it for me, I don't care.
Beth [00:13:29] Yeah, a hundred percent.
Sarah [00:13:30] So I'm not going to fire off a post about how corrupt he is because I don't think people give a shit. And I think AOC did this great thing. She was like the split ticket people, of which they were many in her district, why did you vote for him and vote for me? People did that with me when I ran in 2016. They voted for Trump and they voted for me. Why? It's an outsider. We want to challenge the status quo. And so I feel like the smartest play right now is to make them the status quo. And I think that is the smart thing of saying they won. They're in charge. They're the status quo now. You don't get to play an outsider with 312 electoral votes and the popular vote. I can tell you that much. That outsider situation is over. But he'll still do it like. Even though logically that makes sense to us, we also have to be prepared for them to still crow about how people are standing in their way because some people will stand in their way.
[00:14:27] And so I just think that's what I'm trying to think about. Like, what's a way to undercut that winning message that I'm against the status quo, I'm for you. I jokingly told you I'm going to start referring to Donald Trump as a master politician. Because people don't see him as a politician, but he is because he just won decisively. You know who wins elections? Politicians. So I really am trying to think about how do we use the success not to say anything about the American people because the American people are fickle, but to say lots of things about Donald Trump. I want to say I got lots to say about Donald Trump on the other side of this win. And it cannot be the same thing.
Beth [00:15:17] Yeah, I think some people heard our first episode post-election and were surprised that we didn't spend more time lamenting these results. And that doesn't mean that in my heart I am not deeply sad. I am. It doesn't mean I'm not concerned, but it just means that the last time he was elected, I was eight years younger than I am now. Put a lot of miles on the car since then. I want to win elections. I want people who I think are serious, smart, thoughtful people to win elections. And so I feel like our time is best spent right now not fearing what hasn't happened yet. Not doing a bunch of recriminations over what has happened. And learning some tough lessons because, to me, as a part of the large anti-Trump pro-democracy coalition, what I take away from this election is that telling people vote for the better humans doesn't work.
[00:16:25] Telling people vote for the higher ideals doesn't work. So everything is very bare knuckle right now. And I think you're right. If people hate the status quo, then how does he become the status quo in the most bare knuckle way possible? Be really interesting if they start to love the status quo and if they start to think the establishment is awesome, which could happen. Because as you said, the public is fickle and very susceptible to good marketing. But I also don't think telling people that they're dumb is a winning strategy. I don't think telling people that they have succumbed to disinformation and misinformation is a winning strategy. So I just want to figure out what are the winning strategies going forward from here?
Sarah [00:17:10] Yeah, we had a conversation with a friend and she used the phrase like nobody wants hard edges or angles in their lives. I have got such bad news and I do feel guilty because I feel like as America's political therapist and people who say we're here to process, I'm afraid we've given the impression that politics is anything but hard edges and corners, because it's not. That's what it is. That's the whole game. That's the whole situation in politics. That's why a lot of people turn away from it. I think that that is something, but the paradox is also true. That when it's good, it's great. When you can convince people and show people that we can help you, we can help each other because that's condescending too and patronizing. We can help you. There's plenty of people. This wasn't a full sweep. There are plenty of Democrats out there who one replaces Donald Trump also won who we can learn from, who we should listen to. And so I'm just trying to be clear eyed about that. I got enough to cry about in my personal life. I can't cry about politics right now. It's tough. Sometimes you lose.
[00:18:30] I've been here before. It felt like the end of the world when he won in 2016. It felt like the end of the world when George W Bush won both times. And it was for all, I don't know, 200,000 Iraqis. So I'm just trying to be clear-eyed about this. So I've decided to step away from Instagram. I cannot do politics on Instagram anymore. I just can't. I cannot do it. It's holy pictures. It's esthetics. No one person is made more free by creating content for Mark Zuckerberg okay? I'm sorry. And I was thinking about why I get so mad on there. And especially with the reaction that feels so similar to 2016, that's the definition of insanity. To do the same thing and expect different results. To get in people's face and say you're a racist piece of shit. I can't do it again. I mean, I don't think it worked politically.
[00:19:34] Maybe you believe it to be morally and ethically true of all 70 million Americans that voted for Donald Trump, I don't. You do, that's fine. That's your lived experience. And that could be a moral and ethical argument I'm willing to engage in it at some point. Not now. I'm a little overwhelmed. But politically, the data we have right now is that that is not a winning argument. Politically. Otherwise, fine, let's talk about it. But like politically, because we spend a lot of time telling Jill Stein voters that this wasn't about your moral and ethics. That you needed to do the politically pragmatic thing and vote for Kamala. Did we not? I made that argument. I loved it when AOC said, "This isn't about personal expression, this isn't what you're wearing. This is a political vote. This is a pragmatic vote." So I'm just trying to be consistent. You know what I'm saying.
Beth [00:20:30] A good therapist never says all is lost. That's not why you go to therapy. What you feel is valid. That's what a good therapist says. And then a good therapist says, "How are we going to get through this? What tools do you have? What lessons can you learn? How can you put all these things together and get up tomorrow and put one foot in front of the other and keep going and create something that is closer to your ideal than what is today? And that's the ball game for me.
Sarah [00:21:02] Yeah. Emotions are relevant, but not reality. Not always, anyway.
Beth [00:21:07] I think this is a good spot for us to start thinking about where Trump is going and where he might be constrained and where he might be emboldened based on what we know so far. So we'll take a quick break and then do that.
[00:21:18] Music Interlude
[00:21:27] Sarah, we're hearing quickly from the Trump transition they got plans. They are filling seats. And I want to just spend a second sharing some observations about these appointments, if we could. If you have not gotten the download yet, most of Trump's picks so far are from Florida and New York. So Secretary of State going to be Florida Senator Marco Rubio. He was the top Republican on the Senate Intelligence Committee. He has been a senator for a while. He has run for president. Chad came in and heard Marco Rubio and went blurgh! And I said, sure, it's not Hulk Hogan. I'm good. This is a reasonable appointment from the Republican bench.
Sarah [00:22:09] That's what I said. I was afraid I was going to be like the "My Pillow guy" or Mike Flynn.
Beth [00:22:14] This is a reasonable appointment.
Sarah [00:22:15] Yeah, I think it's really interesting. I was talking about this on the News Brief, like, I don't know what loyalist means. We talk about all the time, but I think a lot of people used to hate him. So that's not really what loyalty means to me, but maybe I'm misunderstanding on purpose. Same with Elise Stefanik and the UN ambassador role. These are people that used to hate him and will join J.D. Vance as people openly criticize him. So it's like super interesting to me. But I think he uses that. I think people say, "See, he surrounds himself with people who don't always agree with him, who didn't always agree with him." While we're all talking about loyalists. That's another place I feel like we're just like talking past each other into different lived realities or different understandings of what's valuable in a position. I was delighted. I can't believe I'm using the word delighted with it when it comes to Marco Rubio, but I was really concerned that it would be out in left field. And they seem to be pretty standard picks from what you're seeing. And I think it'll be interesting to see what Marco Rubio does. I mean, Marco Rubio is a China hawk and hates to TikTok, but Donald Trump don't make everybody mad on TikTok. So I don't think it'll be really interesting to see what comes next.
Beth [00:23:26] For national security adviser, he picked Mike Waltz, Florida congressman who was in Special Forces, who's been on Armed Services, intelligence, foreign Affairs committees. Again, that's a reasonable pick. EPA is going to be Lee Zeldin, who was a representative from New York. I have no idea what his qualifications to run EPA are, but he's somebody who's been elected. I'm just happy that we're in a range of these are people who have some experience in government for whom people have previously or currently are voting. I think Kristi Noem at Homeland Security is a pretty leftfield choice. But she's a governor. At least we've got people who are somewhere in the range of normal. The other thing I notice about these picks, these people are young. They have a lot of career left after the next four years. And I think that that is going to operate in really interesting ways. So I could say, well, these are loyalists. And yes, we have seen these people be extremely transactional, very, very ambitious, willing to change their tune in service of that ambition. I don't know enough about what the universe is going to look like for the next four years to know what that's going to mean. I cannot predict what that's going to counsel them to do in these positions.
Sarah [00:24:41] Yeah, I think there's just so many X factors, pun intended, I guess, since first Buddy Elon Musk is helping with all this.
Beth [00:24:48] First buddy is incredible.
Sarah [00:24:51] It's special. Hey, both of those men are lonely. If they're being true friends to each other, I don't know. With all of these picks, there's a couple of things. One, he has not signed the ethics requirement under the new law for the transition. So I'm seeing these vaguely traditional pics and then I'm watching as they are thumbing their noses at the legal requirements. And if no one blinks, then they'll take over the government cold with no transition, which is more the behavior I was concerned about. The other thing is this idea that he's pushing the Senate majority leader, whoever that would be, to make recess appointments. I wanted to make traditional picks, but I want no requirements on those. I don't want Senate confirmation. I don't want ethics disclosures. I feel like we're robbing Peter to pay Paul here in a real way that I can't quite figure out what that's going to mean. And I don't even know how long any of these people are going to be here. Is it going to be like last time where everybody gets a good solid, I don't know, six to eight months and then we see who's next? I don't know. Are they all going to be acting for four years? Acting secretary of state? That's to me the part that I don't think we can quite suss out yet.
Beth [00:26:16] Sarah, you asked me a really interesting question while we were at breakfast over the weekend. You asked me if I could summarize the Mueller report in two sentences. And I thought that that was a really smart way to press on this issue of am I helping people understand why I care about what I care about and am I making a compelling pitch for them to care about it, too? So when you talk about those ethics requirements and disclosures, I wonder how you would say to someone who has no idea this is why I think this is important and why you should do, too.
Sarah [00:26:51] There's two pieces of this, too. The other thing I didn't mention is that they're floating some balloons out there that maybe they shouldn't have to do security clearance like everybody else. So the ethics thing is hard because, again, I'm not sure people care about corruption. I'm not sure that really gets people's attention. I think they think everyone is corrupt. They think everyone's getting their piece. And so why shouldn't these people be any different? And that's really, really poisonous. And I don't know how to get that, but I know we're not getting at it by just continuing to attack Donald Trump. I thought David French had a good thing of, like, character matters. It still matters in a president, even though it doesn't seem to matter to American voters right now. It still matters. I'm just trying to think about how to communicate that.
[00:27:38] I don't think the ethics thing would get you very far. I'm not sure how I could communicate it that it matters. You don't want people working for private industry and you at the same time? But again, I think the problem is I think everybody already does. And I think to the security clearance, I think that's easier. We're all worried about Russia and China and we're worried about the close relationships between these administrative officials and foreign governments who do not have America's best interests at heart. But, again, we did that with the Mueller report. We did that with Russia. We talked about it until we were blue in the face. And people either don't understand or are not concerned.
Beth [00:28:18] Yeah. All I can say about-- let's just take Elon Musk as an example. My first thought is to say it looks like America has just endorsed oligarchy. That looks to me like where we're going. That's a bad sentence because a lot of people super don't care about that. So what I would say is I sure hope that America's interest in Elon Musk's personal interests stay 100 percent connected. Because if they do, he is an innovative thinker, he's a smart guy, he probably does have some things to offer-- a lot of things to offer. If those interests diverge, I am sure about which one he picks. And I think Elon Musk is capitalizing on the investment he made by buying X and that he is going to continue to cash in throughout this administration. And, look, maybe people don't care about that. As long as America's interest and Elon Musk interests stay together, probably will be okay. And if they diverge, it could range from obnoxious to catastrophic. It's a big scale. I don't know what could go wrong, but I know a lot of things could.
Sarah [00:29:31] I know this feels like we were saying totally to the cynicism and the line between pragmatism and cynicism can get thin if you're not really careful. I felt myself feeling that line very profoundly when the reporting immediately came out that they were concerned with tax cuts and I felt relief. I felt relieved that these men and some women were going to occupy the field and give massive handouts of my tax dollars and your tax dollars and everybody's tax dollars to Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos. Like that was relief I felt. That's concerning to me. I can recognize that. But I'm just trying to think about how I communicate that. I think the reality is until people trust the whole system to a certain extent, or at least a critical mass of people trust that the system is working for them and not that they just need someone to cheat for them, then this is going to be a tough nut to crack. I think people will see results from so much of what Joe Biden did as the government in their lives make a difference. It's just going to take a long time. The stuff he passed has a long tail. I think that's the problem or one of the problems. [Inaudible] say the problem. Everybody knows what the problem is right now. That is the actual problem.
Beth [00:30:56] And it's going to have to actually be done. I mean, they could shut some of that down.
Sarah [00:31:00] Yeah.
Beth [00:31:01] One of my arguments for continuing to vote for Joe Biden when I very much did not want him to run again before the disastrous debate performance, is that all that stuff that got passed on a bipartisan basis for the most part needs to be put into place. And you got to have a competent, capable, invested, on the same page, enthusiastic government for many years to put that stuff into place and I don't think we're going to have that. And so some of what Joe Biden wanted to be his legacy will probably not be because they're not going to do it. And I can fight with that reality, but the reality is going to win. Like, this is where it is.
Sarah [00:31:42] I will say the most hopeful moment was when I agreed with Donald Trump. I saw a reporting from Axios where they were like Trump understands that this win and his success rises and falls with the inflation rate and the economic growth of the country. And I thought, me too buddy. I don't think you got what it takes. Of that I'm pretty confident. I guess I could be wrong. And that's what I'm just trying to recognize. There were things I thought I understood that I did not. And so the people who use this result to just say I knew I was right about everything, I don't know. That to me is always the most cynical take. There's always hope and curiosity. There's always hope and learning, even if it is to throw elbows and be more pragmatic, at least you see a future. To me, this confirmed everything I knew and all is lost is the most cynical take. And I'm not going to give into that.
Beth [00:32:50] Well, my expectations were profoundly disappointed with the election. I really believed that Harris was going to win. So I cannot begin from I knew everything always because I didn't think that she would lose. My expectations have already been disrupted by some of these potential cabinet appointments because I really thought we were going to see the clown car and this isn't it. These are people that I have serious disagreements with. This is not a cabinet I'm excited about. But it looks like people who are serious about their work and who will go in and try to do a good job and definitely people who are interested above all in building a name and a legacy for themselves and a potential path to the White House someday, many of them on their own. So I just want to kind of stay open to what's going to happen from here.
[00:33:38] We are getting lots and lots of questions. Is he going to do this? How would he do this? What would he mean if he did this? And I just think we don't know yet. I read every word of Project 2025. I still cannot tell you what's going to happen. There's a lot in there that's not awful. There's a lot in there that's really awful. And there's a whole bunch of things in between. But what I do know is that almost every idea in there is complex. To execute those ideas will take a tremendous amount of discipline and focus. And we'll see what they got and we'll see where they decide to put that energy. You cannot act on all of Project 2025 in 4 years. What you can do is put people in a place who are moving in that direction. And we'll see.
Sarah [00:34:22] I think the one thing I do feel pretty confident about is immigration. We saw what happened in his first term. We see that Stephen Miller, the architect of much of what he did in his first term, is back as Deputy chief of staff for his second term. And I think that there will be deportations. I think there will be raids. And I'm terrified, considering that the borders are has also exhibited some support for family separations, that they will start that policy again when some children have still not been returned to their families. So I don't want to get into the politics of it all and miss the impact because it's going to be brutal. It's going to be brutal particularly with regards to immigration. But I'm also trying to hold reporting from the Atlanta Constitutional Journal that this reporter interviewed immigrants who had illegally crossed, who were supporting Trump and said he'll be great for the economy. He doesn't mean me. He's just going to deport criminals. If the message can't reach the people most directly affected by the policy, then there are very difficult questions to ask when the stakes are this high.
Beth [00:35:28] The rubber will meet the road about immigration here because if Trump wants unmitigated economic growth, immigration has to be a component of that in our country. It has to. If they're going to start raiding places of employment, that is a real clash of interests that this administration is going to have. I heard reporting this morning that the plan is for families that have minor children who were born in the United States and have birthright citizenship to deport those children with the parents. We have some big questions to answer as a country if that starts to happen. We have some big questions to answer. And we know that Stephen Miller, who's been tapped to be deputy chief of staff, thinks we shouldn't have birthright citizenship anymore. That's a constitutional amendment that's going to force some big questions. I think that all of this will be very bad.
[00:36:20] I think there will be a lot of pain. I think a lot of people will be hurt. I think a lot of people will be deported. I think deporting a lot of people will cost a lot of money. I think that it will cost a lot of capital with other countries in the world in a way that creates a different type of pressure and pain on our foreign policy. I don't intend to sugarcoat any aspect of that. I think it's not a good look for our country that this is how we seem to feel about immigration in 2024. And I am very sad about what it says about us. And he will not have total freedom around this issue if he truly believes that his presidency rises and falls based on the success of the economy. Because immigration is foundational to our economy continuing to grow.
Sarah [00:37:04] Yeah. And to our opening discussion about a mandate, he built a winning coalition. I mean, there's really no debating that. It's still a coalition. It's still a coalition with competing interests, particularly when you start to look at the members of Congress. There are still moderates. There are still people that run in districts that Kamala Harris won. And there are still people who have spent years telling us their number one concern is the deficit. Some of those people, I believe, are telling the truth. I think even some of the most extreme members of the Freedom Caucus are concerned with government spending. So I don't know how they're going to feel about 6 billion on deportation. And I just think that maybe they'll fall in line. Maybe the loyalist is the most important component.
[00:37:58] But these are ambitious people. These are people that are much younger than Donald Trump with careers that I think see stretching out in front of them for decades. And so it will be a tough one. Now, I think the difference is Sussie Wiles is good at her job. We'll see how good she is when she has to stop doing the political stuff and start doing the coalition and the legislative and that real work with Congress. That'll be interesting to see. I want to say clearly I'm delighted that she is the first female chief of staff. If I believe that it's important to break those ceilings, then I believe it's important to break those ceilings all the time. And so I'm glad that there is the very first female chief of staff. It will be interesting to see not only how he navigates this, but how she manages him and this coalition in the face of all this.
Beth [00:38:59] It really will be. I have no idea what Susie Wiles believes about anything. Susie Wiles has been around a long time. So if you don't know who we're talking about, she's 67 years old, she just managed Trump's campaign along with Chris Lacivita, who I understand is going to be out in the cold unless something dramatically changes for him. She has worked with Ron DeSantis and had a big falling out with him. But she goes way back. She was on Ronald Reagan's 1980 campaign. She briefly managed Jon Huntsman's campaign in 2011. Jon Huntsman is a very, very moderate Republican who I was excited to vote for back in that primary. Now, that didn't last very long. I think it was like a January to July situation. She is deeply embedded in Republican politics and a lot of different kinds of Republican politics. So I don't know what's important to her, where she'll put her focus.
[00:39:47] Or what she'll say in meetings when they talk about mass deportations and what that will mean not only for the hard economic data inflation, growth of GDP, but people's felt experiences. You hear people complaining now about not enough help at restaurants, somebody's not at the front desk when you check into a hotel. Those day to day experiences of the labor force being compressed. Wait till they start kicking millions of people out of this country. I don't know how she'll counsel people around threading a very delicate needle in terms of satisfying the country's emotional reaction to immigration not being well controlled, versus ensuring that we continue to have a sustainable economy. I have no idea where she'll land on those issues or if she'll be persuasive enough to carry the day regardless of where she lands.
Sarah [00:40:46] Or if she'll even be there in six months.
Beth [00:40:47] That's right. If she'll even begin on Inauguration Day. This is the thing for me. I am most interested right now in the question of what Joe Biden and his administration should be doing, because they're the people who are still in office. And everything about what's going to happen next is a series of question marks to me. So we will continue to stay with what we know and be honest about what we don't know and encourage everyone else to do the same where we can. And we will try to be good political therapists for America who tell you keep going, keep getting up and doing whatever work is yours to do. Feel what you feel, be mad at who you're mad at, but keep doing the work. Do not give up on this country of ours because everything is still out there to be written.
[00:41:37] Music Interlude.
[00:41:46] We always end our episodes by talking about something Outside of Politics, and we have such fun plans next year. Sarah, I feel like you're better at announcing fun plans than I do. So why don't you share our October 2025 plans?
Sarah [00:41:59] Yes, we will be traveling with Common Ground pilgrimages to Switzerland from October 15th to October 20th in 2025 to treat Frankenstein as a sacred text. What does that mean? Beth, tell the people what that means.
Beth [00:42:17] So Vanessa Zoltan, who is so smart, so thoughtful, such a delight, and also who is an atheist chaplain, has come up with a set of practices from different religious traditions to apply to non-religious works of literature. So when you say treated as a sacred text, what I think of is just take it seriously and ask it big questions. Look at a work of art and get serious about what that work of art is saying. Both what it is saying on its own terms and then on your terms as well. And I'm really excited for us to do this with Frankenstein. I think it's going to be poignant for 2025. I think it's going to meet the moment. And I think doing it in Switzerland is going to bring geeky literary delights along with a needed moment to look at mountains that have been around forever, and look at communities that have seen all kinds of the best and worst of humanity and be together in a small group to ask big questions and talk about big ideas. And I'm really excited.
Sarah [00:43:31] So there's reading, there's class time with us, there's a lot of walking. If you go to the website, it's like readingandwalking.com, because that's what these trips are all about: reading and thinking and walking. And because we're just really thorough people, we had to do research and go on a pilgrimage to do this with Taylor Swift lyrics this weekend because we're serious people and we have to do serious research.
Beth [00:43:53] We would never lead a trip like this without having experienced a trip like this ourselves first. And so as difficult as it was, we went to Cape Cod this weekend.
Sarah [00:44:02] Enormous sacrifices had to be made to go to Cape Cod and contemplate the love triangle between Betty and August and Cardigan.
Beth [00:44:13] I think you can best describe what we did this weekend is glamping. We stayed in Airstreams at AutoCamp in Cape Cod, which was a really cool experience. The trees were absolutely gorgeous. We had a beautiful fall in Kentucky. Our trees really showed off for us. But where I am, they just as quickly decided we're done now the show is over. But they were there in Cape Cod, which was wonderful.
Sarah [00:44:37] And we were this beautiful group of about 20 people. And we would just come together and talk and share and say, "I hear this lyric and think of this. Or I hear this lyric and I think she's saying this." And it was so incredible to watch the group both individually and as a collective take the text somewhere new. It was really, really powerful and fun and exciting. And then we would just walk to the beach and then we come back and we have a really delightful dinner. In a way we had Taylor Swift karaoke. It's a really special thing that Common Ground Pilgrimages have put together. And I'm just so, so, so excited that they invited us to be a part of it.
Beth [00:45:22] My favorite part of the whole experience was the last dinner where they gave us a set of questions and bits of text to work our way through those questions with. And we just sat at a table.; Me and Sarah with two other people, Jackie and Tom, who were fantastic conversation partners. And it was really nice to have a focused discussion that took us all over the place. And I was just thinking about the way that we interact with you all through email and on Substack and at live events and all the places that conversations among our community of listeners could go. So if you are interested in learning more about this trip, there will be a link in the notes today. I don't want to rush you on a big decision like traveling to Switzerland next October. But I am going to tell you that this will sell out. It's filling up already. And so you probably do need to give this gift to yourself fast if you would like to receive it.
Sarah [00:46:24] I actually do want to rush everybody because guess what I've figured out, Beth? In about a month you could read the book over the course of time it takes place in the novel and finish right before our trip.
Beth [00:46:33] And you also figured out that that period of time is nine months.
Sarah [00:46:39] It's nine months.
Beth [00:46:39] A gestational period for humans.
Sarah [00:46:42] Mary Shelley has some things to say I think about birth and death and creation and connection and destruction. I'm trying not to give it all away. I'm sorry.
Beth [00:46:52] These are things that we love to talk about and we know that you are going to bring them alive, those of you who go on the trip with us, in an even brighter, more exciting way. So we would love for you to join us for that trip. Thank you Common Ground and Vanessa for inviting us to be faculty and for hosting us over such a lovely and truly excellently done weekend. That's the other thing I want you to know. We rolled in. Everything was easy. It was easy to check in. It was easy to check out. It was easy to eat. It was easy to get on a bus. I thought about nothing logistically for this entire period of time because this team is so good at what they do.
Sarah [00:47:29] Well, unless there was time to think about hard things then, Margaret, our faculty, was incredible. Then she was like, "Okay, it's time to think about some things. Now that we've taken care of all the stuff you don't have to think about." They really got it. They've got it worked out.
Beth [00:47:41] They have it worked out. So we would love for you to come with us. Please check that out soon. You can also check out the gift guide for other ways to be more involved with the Pantsuit Politics community. Anytime we do a live show, as we did last Thursday, it is a reminder people are smart, they're kind, they have so many different life experiences they bring to the table. It is fun to be with Pantsuit Politics people. So we would love for you to find ways to do more of that over the next year or two. We'll be back in your airs on Friday. Thank you for spending time with us. Until then, have the best week available to you.
[00:48:11] Music Interlude.
Sarah: Pantsuit Politics is produced by Studio D Podcast Production. Beth: Alise Napp is our Managing Director. Maggie Penton is our Director of Community Engagement.
Sarah: Xander Singh is the composer of our theme music with inspiration from original work by Dante Lima.
Beth: Our show is listener-supported. Special thanks to our executive producers.
Executive Producers: Martha Bronitsky. Ali Edwards. Janice Elliott. Sarah Greenup. Julie Haller. Tiffany Hasler. Emily Holladay. Katie Johnson. Emily Helen Olson. Barry Kaufman. Katherine Vollmer. Laurie LaDow. Lily McClure. Linda Daniel. The Pentons. Tracey Puthoff. Sarah Ralph. Jeremy Sequoia. Katie Stigers. Karin True. Onica Ulveling. Nick and Alysa Villeli. Amy Whited. Lee Chaix McDonough. Morgan McHugh. Jen Ross. Sabrina Drago. Becca Dorval. Christina Quartararo. Shannon Frawley. Jessica Whitehead. Samantha Chalmers. Crystal Kemp. Megan Hart. The Lebo Family. The Adair Family. Genny Francis. Leighanna Pillgram-Larsen. The Munene Family. Ashley Rene. Michelle Palacios.
Sarah: Jeff Davis. Melinda Johnston. Michelle Wood. Nichole Berklas. Paula Bremer and Tim Miller.