Primary Season Approaches with Sarah Longwell

TOPICS DISCUSSED

  • Presidential Primary Season Approaches with Sarah Longwell

  • Outside of Politics: Busy Family Schedules

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TRANSCRIPT

Sarah [00:00:07] This is Sarah Stewart Holland.  

Beth [00:00:08] And this is Beth Silvers.  

Sarah [00:00:10] Thank you for joining us for Pantsuit Politics. Welcome to Pantsuit Politics. We are so excited today to be sharing a conversation with Sarah Longwell of the Bulwark. Now, if you are like Alise, our managing director, and you live for the horse race of presidential primaries you're going to love this conversation. Sarah talked with us about how the primary race may be shaping up, particularly on the Republican side of the aisle. And at the end of the show, we'll share what's on our minds Outside Politics. In particular we're going to talk about busyness and kids schedules, which is a evergreen topic at this stage of life.  

Beth [00:00:57] Before we start, we want to share with you that we are so excited to be hosting a live show in Orlando, Florida, on Wednesday, April 5th. Florida, as you will hear in our discussion with Sarah Longwell today, is a perfect venue to be talking about modern politics. Tickets are on sale now. You can get them from the link in our show notes. And this event is going to be very different than any event we've done before. Our kids and families are going to be involved. I think you're going to walk away feeling like you know us better from this conversation. I think it's going to be so much fun. So Wednesday, April 5th, Orlando, Florida. We hope you'll join us.  

Sarah [00:01:30] Up next, Sarah Longwell.  

Beth [00:01:42] Welcome back to Pantsuit Politics, Sarah. We're so glad that you're here.  

Sarah Longwell [00:01:45] Yeah, thanks for having me.  

Beth [00:01:46] I'm excited to talk to you because we're in this strange in-between where 2024 is looming over everything, but we're just waiting for people to make their announcements. So I wanted to talk to you about what's happening in the in-between. What are people who are considering a run doing right now?  

Sarah Longwell [00:02:04] First of all, there's a lot of them and different people are doing different things. So if you're one of the governors, if you're DeSantis or you're Youngkin, you're Sununu, you are in your legislative session and you are trying to think-- assuming especially like  DeSantis, but maybe Youngkin and you're trying to think about how you use that legislative session to continue to foment the kind of controversies that build your brand. So you're seeing that with the DeSantis right now with some of the university staff. He's trying to keep his name in the news. He's trying to use his perch as governor to elevate both his brand and his style. And then there's the group that doesn't have anything going on right now because they're not holding office. And that's your Nikki Haley, your Mike Pompeos, your Mike Pences. And we saw today it looks like Nikki Haley is going to announce on February 15th, the day after Valentine's Day-- I don't know why I feel the need to mention that, but that's just what the 15th sounds like to me. And I got to say, that's what I've been doing all day, is fielding calls from reporters being like why do you think Nikki Haley is doing this? And I got to say, one of the calculations that everybody's trying to make is when do they get in? Later there are going to have to make a calculation about when do they get out. We can talk about that later, but right now it's when do you get in? And I have some respect for Nikki Haley getting in right now because here's the advantages. You get a first mover advantage. Right now she's got the news cycle order herself for what looks like 15 days, maybe 30 days. And everybody else now is going to be an also ran. So that's the upside. But the downside is now your toe to toe with Trump. He's been kind of pathetically hanging out, not doing anything, in part probably because he doesn't have that much to shoot at. And so now Nikki Haley's decided to make herself the first target. It'll be interesting to see how she navigates. She worked for Trump. She's my favorite, maybe Trumper, because sometimes she's in on him, sometimes she's out on him.  

Sarah [00:03:55] They're all maybe Trumpers at this point.  

Sarah Longwell [00:03:56] Well, that's right. That's right. And she's been a real disappointment in how she's handled herself, especially when she said at one point that if she was going to run, she would check with Trump first and make sure she got his permission. But it seems like she's not doing that now. Seems like she's going to get in and she's going to be the first one to kind of push for generational change. And that's what they're all going to do with Trump. And so that's good. Good for her. I'm glad she's doing that. What Pompeo and Pence and I don't know Rubio and the rest of those guys clump in later and I think it improves their chances.  

Sarah [00:04:27] Is Marco Rubio going to run for president again?  

Sarah Longwell [00:04:29] I actually don't think so. There's been some chatter.  

Sarah [00:04:31] I hope not.  

Sarah Longwell [00:04:34] The Democrats were like this going into 20.  At some point, it's like why not? Everybody else is doing it. And it feels like...  

Sarah [00:04:41] Try it on for size.  

Sarah Longwell [00:04:42] These guys have been telling themselves in the silliest way for a while now that they're the post-Trump future.  They all sort of fancy themselves a version of a post-Trump future. And so they have this way of talking themselves into why they should get in. And so that's going to lead to a ton of people getting in. Now, presumably we've learned a thing or two since 2016. It's not assured, but they understand that the way that the Republican primary calendar works means that by January, February of 2024, so early next year, you got to have a consolidation. But every reporter I talked to today has just been gaining out the potential scenarios. There's just a whole bunch and we don't know because so much of it comes down to we haven't seen Trump in a long time. It kind of shapes [Inaudible] right now. People are like, is he going to run as an independent? And I was like, I don't know. Is he going to leave Mar-a-Lago to even run the presidential campaign he's in right now? Maybe. Maybe not. You know how good Ron DeSantis quite good on paper. Lot of good clips of him yelling at teenagers in masks and fighting with Disney. And people love him. He's beating Trump in head to heads. What happens when he actually faces a crowd? He gives a speech. Is he boring? Is he good? One of the things I always think about with DeSantis is I watched him in his debate with Charlie Crist, and Crist accused him, and said, "You're going to run for president and I'm going to be the governor."  And DeSantis just stood there and smiled awkwardly, let a big awkward pause go by and he was kind of, like, "Next question."  

Sarah [00:06:15] What?  

Sarah Longwell [00:06:16] And I was like, well, maybe this guy is great at politics. I don't know. Maybe he's not actually good at the part where you have to talk and exchange ideas. Who knows? Is Nikki Haley going to be a good candidate? Is she going to be able to get people excited about what she has to sell? My guess is that the Bush era foreign policy that she sort of embodies is not where Republican primary voters are these days, but maybe she's got something else going for her that I don't know about yet. So anyway, there's a long, long way of answering your question, which is I think right now everybody's looking for a lane and a reason to get in. They're trying to game out what the right time is. And different people have different calculations for that.  

Sarah [00:06:57] Well, and I just think there's a lot of unanswerables if the Democratic primary process sort of uncouples in a really dramatic way from the Republican primary process. I don't know what that means. I don't know what that means for media coverage. I don't know how that will shake out. I don't think it maybe will have a huge impact. But I think it's an interesting question that nobody knows the answer to. If all of a sudden Iowa is not important to Democrats, but it's still important to Republicans, even though I feel like it's never that important to Republicans as it was to Democrats. And I don't know if that's just because of the Jimmy Carter history or Barack Obama history, but I just think that that's really interesting. I know you did some focus groups. Speaking of past Democratic primaries and how they're informing my thinking on this, I'm old and I worked on Hillary Clinton's 2007 primary campaign where it seemed like she had a floor. She just had this base of support and we had a sort of a divided field. It was John Edwards. It was Barack Obama. And it seemed like, well, she has this built in base. So what's going to happen? And we all know what happened. And so when I see this reporting that he doesn't do great against DeSantis, but more divided the field is he has this base and is it going to play out the same way it did in 2016? I don't know.   

Sarah Longwell [00:08:04] Well, I'll tell you. So I've been doing a bunch of focus groups since the 2022 midterms, and there's been an interesting shift. I would say right around the January six committee, I started seeing groups where nobody wanted Trump to run again in 2024, and that was super different. So going in prior to that, prior to the January six committee is about half or more of the group want to see Trump run again in 2024. All of a sudden January six committee starts happening and I'm getting groups were zero people, just one after the other, zero people want Trump to run again. Like three groups in pretty quick succession. And that was a really big change, so I noticed it and clocked it. But two things were happening because what the voters were saying in these groups is they were saying, "I like Trump, but I think he's got too much baggage. I don't think he can win. I like DeSantis." So the two things that are going on is that some people watching the January six committee and being like, "Ooh, Trump's a bad guy. Really some terrible things here." They're watching the January six committee and they were saying, "This guy has so much stuff to deal with and it's just a lot." And the same time Ron DeSantis is having his media boomlet and he had previous boomlets, but he was getting a big round of press of like this guy is going to run for president. So that was changing the dynamic. And then 2022 happens and support for Trump in the focus groups just fell off a cliff. After 2022 I could be in a bunch of groups, I didn't find anybody who wanted him to run again. And these were 2016, 2020 Trump voters.  

Sarah [00:09:28] Let's just let that breath, just for a minute. These are Republicans that you are asking and nobody wants him to run again. Let's just absorb that up. Just a minute. Just a second.  

Sarah Longwell [00:09:36] Yeah. That should make you happy, depending on how you feel about Ron DeSantis. 

Sarah [00:09:39] It does. I don't care how you feel about Ron DeSantis. That should make you happy.  

Sarah Longwell [00:09:41] That's true. And I happen to very much agree with that position, not everybody does. And the electability piece just kind of went on steroids because after '22, there was just this real sense of like, all right, we're not winning with this guy. And all of these mini-me Trumps went down in flames. It chipped away at the people who were like the 2020 election was stolen. A lot of them just kind of moved on from that. And so in order to find anybody who wanted Trump to run again, I changed how we screened for the focus groups. And I went and only said I only want people who view Trump at this moment very favorably. When we did that, we found a bunch of people who they're just living in 2015. Yes. This guy, he's the only anti-establishment. He's not a real politician, loved his policies.  

Sarah [00:10:28] A former president. I love him.  

Sarah Longwell [00:10:29] He's still the big outsider and the anti-establishment candidate to them. And so I was like, okay, so these people exist. They're still ride or die for Trump. Then the next question was how big is that group? Okay. So I did a poll. I did a poll for the Bulwark with a GOP pollster named Whit Ayres, and we asked a question that I hadn't seen anybody else ask. I had seen a lot of polls with DeSantis beating Trump head to head, seen a lot of polls that had Trump winning somewhere between like 30 and 38%. Just was like, okay, so Trump's like living in the thirties. But I wanted to know how many people would follow him if he ran as an independent because those are your really dug in people. They're you're all Trump all the time people. And the poll came back and said 28%. And in the focus groups that I was doing, in this group of Always Trumpers, I was also getting everybody say that if Trump ran as an independent they would follow him. So that dug in 28% is the thing that scares all the other Republicans, because if that's his floor and if he can use that as leverage to be, like, I'll take my people and even if I don't run an independent campaign, that 28%-- maybe it's even less than that-- 20% are going to listen to me when I tell them that Ron DeSantis sucks and I'm trashing him. That's why people are, like, they don't know how to go toe to toe with him. So Ron DeSantis is beating Trump in his head to heads. But again this is 40% of people who say yes to DeSantis on polls are more. They don't know that much about Rob DeSantis. They haven't been through the coup with him. They haven't been through all the stuff. They don't know how much they're going to stick with him yet.  

[00:12:01] And so I just think to your point about there's a bunch of known unknowns, we know there's going to be a crowded field. We don't know if they are going to figure out how to consolidate early, which they didn't do in 2016 and left Trump with a plurality. We don't know if that 28% that feels like ride or die right now slowly moves away as they get to know some of the other candidates. Because one of the things about these people, well, one is that they really think the election was stolen. They're sure. They don't have electability concerns because Trump definitely won the last time. But also they don't really know that much about Ron DeSantis. And so if Ron DeSantis shows up and he is Trump just a little younger, could they be peeled off? Possibly. So there's just a bunch of dynamics and a lot of it comes down to the political talent. I'm looking at details like who has political talent, real political talent, big stage NFL political talent? Because the difference between kind of the JV stuff that happens in state level politics and national politics, that's a pretty big jump. You've done it. So you've seen people are nasty national politics, they're [Inaudible] state level politics, but it's just a no hold barred situation. And so how good are they? Do they have charisma? Donald Trump can fill a stadium. I don't know if he still can, but he could. And so can he still? And can other people?  

Beth [00:13:17] I wonder about that 28%. If we could just get their addresses too to see how electorally significant they are. That's the fear factor, right? That the presidential comes down to such thin margins in such few places. And I feel like that number is why we even see Kevin McCarthy thanking Donald Trump for helping him get to the speaker. They're also scared of that razor thin margin in a few districts.  

Sarah Longwell [00:13:42] You know what? It's a great point. It's going to be fun for me, actually, because I do so many focus groups and I have basically been living in my head in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin for the last five years. And what will be nice is to go to Iowa and New Hampshire or even California if the Republicans keep the calendar like it is. Because I'll just say a word about the Republican calendar. And it's to your point, the calendar is going to be a big deal because the way the Republican calendar works is that you have Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada, and then you have Super Tuesday on March 5th. And there's a ton of states and they are winner take all or winner take most. And it's huge delegate counts that are up for grabs. So you've got Texas in there. We got California in there. That's where you lock the whole thing up. And Trump came really close. He still had to keep going and he wasn't a lock, but what he did was he came in second in Iowa. Ted Cruz came in first. He came in first then in New Hampshire, first in South Carolina, but all with like 32%, 34%. And he bounced into Nevada and got 49% off the momentum from those states and then catapulted into Super Tuesday and won seven of those 11 sort of winner take most states. And that is when everybody went from, well, he's not going to be the nominee to, oh, my God, he's going to be the nominee. And it happens like that so fast in the calendar. Super frontloaded. Republicans did this on purpose to sort of keep them from having a big, long, drawn out primary process. But now they have to live with that.  

Sarah [00:15:24]  I was going to say, how's that working guys? Are you happy with that choice?  

Sarah Longwell [00:15:26] That's right.  

Sarah [00:15:38] I always have to remind myself not only, I think, the point about who has big political talent. When I hear people talk about Ron DeSantis, I'm like, he is so unproven. We know that the Republican  party organization in Florida it's like next level. Everybody says that. It's all the reporting you read and he's benefiting from that. And I don't think he's a complete fool. But I think he's completely untested. And I'm not willing to think about him as this big threat when people are like, oh, he's going to be the nominee. He's going to win. I'm like, have you watched a presidential race? Godspeed to you if you think they're so that predictable. But the thing that I also have to constantly remember is that Donald Trump, even with that base, never misses an opportunity to miss an opportunity. Never, ever, never does he do that. He will never take a benefit and exploit it to the full extent. Even in that calendar, they fell into that. That wasn't like some grand political scheming. They hobble through and accident into good luck, but mostly take every opportunity to miss an opportunity. Again, I don't know what he's going to do. I don't know that's going to happen, but I don't live in this fear that he knows everything we're talking about and will exploit it to the nth degree. That I feel very confident is not going to happen.  

Sarah Longwell [00:16:53] Yeah, this is the thing about Trump. We all sort of not mythologize him now, but we've got a vision of Trump in our heads and it's the stadium filling, dropping racist and sexist and provocative things that drive news cycles. The tweeting Trump where he woke up and he'd already set the news cycle with whatever tweet he tweeted out with his coffee. We don't have that guy right now. And I just think to your point, I just think things are really wide open. People are asking for predictions and I'm in very much information gathering mode of where are voters right now? And I think that the things that are safe to say is that lots of people are interested in DeSantis. Lots of people want to move on from Trump because they do not think he's electable and he really want to be Joe Biden and win an election here. The title Losing. And that Trump has a locked in group of people that have not looked around for any other candidate and they still think he's the answer. And that that group is just slightly over a quarter of the party and that that's what his pluralities look like in 2016. And so soon these Republicans who are all about to gear up to get into the race, they understand the fractured field issue from last time and they understand they got to consolidate early. But we'll see. So I think things are very open. But to me, one of the interesting pieces are can you get that 28% down? Because I think if Trump craters early, you have more of an open primary and less of the need to go head to head against Trump. And it's possible.  

Beth [00:18:23] It feels different to me this cycle than in the past. I remember being certain that Rudy Giuliani was going to be the president at one point. A very long time ago.  

Sarah Longwell [00:18:30] I wanted to work for him.  

Beth [00:18:32] Yeah. I mean, it was a different time, right? So I get that things are very dynamic and can shift in a presidential race. But it is unusual that we have a former president as a candidate. And it is unusual how much media oxygen that former president takes up. Everything is referential. I think DeSantis is only interesting if he's being contrasted with Trump. I don't know if we'd be talking about DeSantis at all if there were no Trump in the picture, right? So I think a lot about your concrete metaphor. I'm a Bulwark Plus subscriber. I listen to you a lot Sarah, and I think about your metaphor about concrete. That voters are soft when an issue comes out. And then as the issues out there, they start to harden in their opinions.  

Sarah Longwell [00:19:15] Public opinion is soft at first and then it hardens like concrete, you can't change it.  

Beth [00:19:18] Yes. And I am curious, where are we in the concrete of DeSantis? Because we are talking about him more than we would if this were a normal primary without a former sitting president in the mix.  

Sarah Longwell [00:19:30] Yeah, that's a great point. And something that I talk about a lot is how it's weird. DeSantis, as he exists now, is part of the forces that Trump unleashed on the party, right? So it's not just Trump the man. There's also the way that Trump shifted the whole of the Republican Party. And also there's this feeling, if you're [Inaudible] plus subscriber, you've heard me say this, but there's this Russian expression, the appetite increases while you're eating. And Republican voters, their appetite for the sort of strongmen and the owning the libs, or the anti woke and all the stuff, that has just all increased. And so your point, though, about how [Inaudible] Trump, you wouldn't have to DeSantis the way that he is. DeSantis is like a Trump understudy. When voters talk about him in the focus groups, they always talk about him in reference to Trump. So they say he's Trump without the baggage. He's Trump not on steroids is my favorite one. Sometimes people say he's like Trump, but able to control his mouth. And so the fact that people see him as a Trump figure but just more polished.  People say that. They think he's more polished. I think he won't alienate so many people. That is right, that his people have grown an appetite for Trump and they think that DeSantis can be that, but people would elect him. But I also think that there's not that much evidence for that. But I would say so this is another thing that I think has emerged that's interesting to me. That Florida has become just this place in people's minds where it's like the free state of Florida. It's where woke goes to die. I hear voters they're always talking about their family that lives in Florida. Anywhere you go, they're like, "Well, my son lives in Florida and he calls him daddy to DeSantis." Or "My cousin lives in Florida. He loves Ron DeSantis because he kept things open." And there's also this idea of Florida used to be a swing state, and now it's this blood red state that Republicans own and they feel like it's theirs. They feel like it's their California, their place where their policies are being incubated and their culture is dominant. And so I do think that there's something about that with DeSantis, you know, him winning by 20 points.  I went back and looked and Jeb Bush won it by 13 one time and 11 another time.Twenty is still a lot. And in a state that feels like a swing state to people, even though it's not so much a swing state anymore, but still feels like a swing state to people, that's a lot of what they're reacting to. Like you must be doing something right down there. People love him and I like the combative stuff that I see. And Trump did some great things, but now we need somebody who could do those things but also get elected.  

Sarah [00:22:06] Well, I do think there is something to the Florida thing, even just geographically, that Trump is there. So when you're contrasting them, they're in the same state, it's just kind of weird. But I do think if I could take all these Republicans aside and be like, friends, can we talk for a minute? Can I be your free political consultant because I do want one of you to win the primary and be a good president should you win the actual election, which I don't think you can, but whatever. We are becoming very finely tuned to authenticity or at least the appearance of authenticity, because social media. And I loved it when-- Beth always talks about this-- when Dave Chappelle called him an honest liar. Because, yeah, he lies, but Trump has that wash of authenticity that people really react to. And you guys, all the rest of the field, do you have a vision? Not a vision you focus grouped or tested or think will hold up against Trump. Do you have an actual governing vision? I think DeSantis might. I do read things where I'm like, hmm, I don't agree with it, but it seems like he's going somewhere and he wants to take people with him and they won't go. And if you don't have that, even in a handicapped Trump universe, it's still going to fall apart. And it can't be out Trumping Trump or generic Trump. How many different ways do you guys have to learn that that's not going to get it done if you want to win the whole kit and caboodle? You have to be offering something to the mass populace and not just Democrats or worse. And I think there are people in the Republican field that have that, that could have that.  

Sarah Longwell [00:23:50] Who? Tell me.  

Sarah [00:23:50] I haven't seen enough of Christie. I think she might have it. I think she also just likes the idea of being president. But they all do. Even Barack Obama writes in his own biography, like, I just kind of wanted to be president. That's fueling everybody to a certain extent and that's fine. I'm not mad at that.  

Sarah Longwell [00:24:05] I want to be president.  

Sarah [00:24:06] I want to be president.  

Beth [00:24:07] I do not. I just want to say it really plainly, no thank you please. No. 

Sarah [00:24:10] Beth doesn't. But I would do it if somebody was appointing me to the job. I'm like, yeah, I'll do a great job. I do think there's a little bit of you have it or you don't. Like you said, that sort of national political charisma. Surely to God there are people thinking about running on the Republican side that have that or could have it or could feel the vision. I don't know. I mean, you're probably better. Do you see anybody that has it?  

Sarah Longwell [00:24:30] So there's different ways of thinking about it because part of it is like Donald Trump had a charisma that I found repellent, but I recognize that lots of other people found it charismatic and found it fun. I don't know if you've ever done a deep dive on Chris Sununu, but when I listen to Sununu talk about the bipartisan work he does in New Hampshire and how they sit down for these meetings where they're shoulder to shoulder, these funny things they do in New Hampshire that I love. And he talks about his sort of family connection to politics. And he's a guy with a real policy vision and a real vision for the country. And it's one that really resonates with me as kind of an old school Republican, because there's a lot of compassion and there's a lot of realism in it. And he sounds very authentically himself. He does have a vision. The question is if you're not doing a lot of performative on the live stuff, whether or not there's any sort of purchase for you or audience for you within the Republican base. I know from listening to a lot of these voters that they're not super interested in your policy chops. And this is where your point about DeSantis and his vision. I don't really like to DeSantis's vision. DeSantis vision is divide and conquer, create enemies, stir up controversies, take vulnerable populations and try to kick them. And the thing  is there's  certain things where I'm objectively  on the side maybe that he's taking, but the way he does it is so off putting to me that I could never get on board with it. Like if you wanted to say--  

Sarah [00:26:01] God help me, I think I'm going to defend Ron DeSantis.  

Sarah Longwell [00:26:04] Okay. Great.You should.  

Sarah [00:26:04] I don't know. I might be I've got hit on the head. Let's worry about this for a minute. Did you get that New York Times article that was about the Democrat who he put in charge of the COVID thing, talking about working with him? It was fascinating. He was just talking about like he came with the facts. And I do think because, look, it's a big gap between what you want in a primary and how you win a general. The gap in the Republican side is getting bigger and bigger and bigger. There was like a colonel there. And every once in a while I can see Ron DeSantis he's not just trying to own the libs, he's just trying to say like, listen, we want to keep businesses open. I don't think they're bad. I mean, he does say that. I'm not defending  his actual rhetoric. I find him abhorrent. But I can see it. I can see the glimmer of sort of that common sense governance. And don't let this identity politics feel everything. And we all want to get to the same place.  I can see him building that case and it getting to people. Like Maggie, one of our team members who lives in Florida, she's like, these commercials are good. They just are and they're appealing and he's getting it. 

Beth [00:27:10] It's like where the two step that they just wrote about Jamie Colmer doing in Kentucky, where Jamie Colmer if he's on Meet the Press he's one guy, and if he's on Fox he's a different guy.  

Sarah [00:27:18] Yes.  

Beth [00:27:19] It feels like that's the needle that DeSantis is maybe trying to [Inaudible].  

Sarah [00:27:21] He's trying. He's doing it. He's hustlin. He's tap dancing. He's trying to find that path.  

Sarah Longwell [00:27:26] That's what I mean about him having a vision. He's got a way to get to face voters and to win them over. And it is like the war against woke. This is what I mean about I can be predisposed to some of these things. I find some of the sort of left stuff on this to be it goes way too far for me. But also  I think that Ron DeSantis is doing a bunch of things where he is curtailing free speech. He's using the power of government against private businesses for speech he doesn't like, which I find very disgusting. And that is part of his vision and his path. It is about using government to sort of hit back at the right's enemies. And so he does have a vision. And actually it's sort of different from Trump's. There's some temperament stuff that's similar, but substantively it's a different type of thing than what Trump is doing. And I also agree that I think DeSantis can probably talk sort of crazy to crazy and normie to normie where he  could sound like a regular Republican because that's kind of who he is. He's figured out how to be appealing to the base with this woke stuff, and he probably believes it.  

Sarah [00:28:32] Well, it's like he's picking fights of, like, do you really want to defend a multinational corporation like Disney even if you're a Democrat? Like, is anybody going to really go to the mat and feel offended if you're a moderate voter about professors and AP courses? No, even though that is offensive. But it's like he's picking politically smart fights. I am not arguing for the ethics of what he's doing, but I feel like politically I can see what he's doing and it's not stupid.  

Sarah Longwell [00:28:57] It's not stupid. And  this is what I've wondered about to DeSantis, is whether or not he can overcome, I think it's probably a charisma deficit, by having like a very straightforward message that meets the moment in sort of where the party is right now. I think the question is does he get himself into the problem that Trump has where it does still alienate swing voters? Because that gap you talked about is real. Where the gap between what base voters want and what swing voters will tolerate has gotten really big on the Republican side. He did something weird lately where he endorsed Harmeet Dhillon in the RNC race against Ronna  McDaniel.  

Sarah [00:29:37] That's interesting.  

Sarah Longwell [00:29:37] And Harley was like number one is like a MyPillow guy like crazy person. She hangs out with Kerry Lake and so does Ron DeSantis. But so he endorsed her and I was like, okay, she's going to lose. Like Ronna had those votes locked up. Harmeet was not going to win. And one of the things that DeSantis has been really good at is kind of strategic silence. He stays out of a lot of the big fights. He doesn't talk about Trump, but it seems like an opening gambit. And I was like why would you pick a loser? But then I realized that part of what he was doing is trying to be like, no, I'm the outsider. He was saying like you got to get the RNC out of Washington, D.C. because that's the swamp and they're corrupt there. And he was trying to sort of outflank Trump, but not on the right because those angles don't matter anymore. He's trying to come as the I'm the outsider, Trump's the mega establishment. And I'm going to start building credibility as somebody who is going to come in and be like the new guard.  

Sarah [00:30:33] Yeah.  

Beth [00:30:34] Well, before we let you go, I know your expertise and experience is on the Republican side of the aisle, but I do want to ask you if you see meaningful differences in the way Democrats are assessing this in-between time and Republicans, and what your observations are on that side of the aisle.  

Sarah Longwell [00:30:49] Oh, my gosh. I don't know what to do with Democrats right now. Here's the thing. I was on the Pod Save. I was on with Jon Favreau.  

Sarah [00:30:56] That's amazing. I like that.  

Sarah Longwell [00:30:57] I got in so much trouble. I was ramping up. I was talking about Biden's age and the fact that if Joe Biden is 82, he didn't have to campaign last time because of COVID. Eighty two years old campaigning against--  if it's Trump, fine. I think Biden can beat Trump a second time because they're both old and same dynamics and whatever, although I'm not 100% sure of that. But I think chances are okay. Do you know what it looks like when an 82-year-old has to stand up against somebody who's 46? That's how Ron Desantis will be. Or Glenn, even somebody in their sixties, seventies, they look positively just buoyant comparatively. And it's nothing against Joe Biden. I think Joe Biden saved democracy. I think he was the only one who could beat Trump in 2020.  I'm for giving him all the gold watches and the plaques and thank God for Joe Biden taking out the rest of that field and winning. I did everything I could to help him get elected. But I am very alarmed that the two most likely choices as things stand right now, like we said, it's wide open. So I don't know. But there's not an insignificant chance that is either Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis. Trump is worse. DeSantis isn't great. And if I were Joe Biden, I would be like, I think it should be so-and-so and whatever. And you guys should be able to have a primary right now, and I'm not going to-- but that's not what's going to happen. And this is like just the timeline is impossible because what he's going to do is he's going to wait to see if it looks like it's Trump. And if it is, he'll run. Maybe he gets out if it's not Trump, but there's not time then. And they've got a huge problem with Kamala Harris, who's deeply unpopular, who has done nothing in that position that [inaudible] voters to her. And people can get mad if they want to about-- I'm not even criticizing her. I'm just telling you I haven't found a Democratic voter in a focus group who's like, "Oh, yeah, she's doing great. Boy, I'd really like to see her run." And let me tell you, she will become a major issue when you got an 82-year-old who's going to be 86 at the end of his term. There are actuarial realities to this that if people are unwilling to talk about, I just think it's a mistake. And maybe they have this, but it seems like he's going to run again or he's going to decide awfully late. And I just don't think that puts Democrats in the best position.  

Sarah [00:33:21] No, I agree. I think that you're right. I mean, it looks like he's going to run again. I don't know. I want him to run again. I do not think he should run again. I think he's been a fabulous president and he's too old to run again. I will say it as clearly as I can as a Democrat. I do have to believe that there are people out there making the Barack Obama calculus. Now, Hillary Clinton wasn't an incumbent, but she was as close as you could get or it sure felt like that at the time. And I hope there's somebody somewhere having the conversation with the future Barack Obama that Harry Reid had that was like, don't wait, do it now, take your shot. But they'll have to be so good.  

Sarah Longwell [00:33:58] They won't run against him. Because here's the thing, this is why it's a genuinely tough call. I also feel it somewhat clearly, but I recognize why it's a tough call. The benefits of incumbency are region, you have a 100% name ID. It is so much better for the Democrats while the Republicans are beating the crap out of each other. Having this very difficult--  

Sarah [00:34:16] To have an incumbent. Yeah.   

Sarah Longwell [00:34:17] To just have somebody sitting there governing, right? There's a lot of reasons why it's not the closest call in the world. If I listened to our last conversation, I bet you one of the things I was really concerned about is how not deep the Democrats bench was. Because you'd guide one of these focus groups with Democrats and I'd say, "Do you want Joe Biden to run again? And they all say no. You say, "Who do you want to see run?" And they would just stare at you. And it was like that SNL skit where like everybody's like Hillary [Inaudible]. And then you just come back like I guess Biden's fine, whatever. That's it. But since '22, you've got a little deeper of a bet.  

Sarah [00:34:57] I don't feel that.  

Sarah Longwell [00:34:59] Gretchen Whitmer should be an incredibly formidable candidate on the Democrat side.  

Sarah [00:35:05] That's who I want to run. I know.  

Sarah Longwell [00:35:05] And I just think some of them aren't my cup of tea, but there's there's other people who I think have emerged and who have won in Georgia. You've got Reverend Warnock or Buttigieg. I mean, there's just there's people-- although, man, [Inaudible] transportation is not what he thought it was going to be.  

Sarah [00:35:21] Bless. My favorite tweet of all time is, like, just let him do it. He's not going to give up until he gets to this. Like just let him do it. And I like him so much. 

Sarah Longwell [00:35:30] Sure. I also like him.   

Sarah [00:35:33] But just let him do it guys, because he's not going to give up until he [Inaudible].  

Sarah Longwell [00:35:35] He might have to do it when he hasn't spent a really long time watching the airlines crater around him. He was supposed to be implementing all the big bucks around the infrastructure package and said it's just the airline stuff. But, look, there's people who I think would run really strong races that can win. But if they if they lose the next eight months, it becomes pretty impossible.  

Sarah [00:35:58] Yeah. So true.  

Beth [00:35:58] Well, Sarah, this is the kind of pragmatism that I really value from you and from the crew at the Bulwark. So thank you for spending some time with us and for all that you all are doing over there.  

Sarah Longwell [00:36:07] Yeah, thanks for having me.  

Sarah [00:36:18] Thank you to Sarah for joining us. Now, Beth, you said that what's on your mind constantly and consistently is busyness. Tell the people what you mean.  

Beth [00:36:30] I think what I'm coming around to is not so much that we are involved in too many things. If you're just making a list of the things my family is involved in, it sounds quite reasonable. And I think the things that we're involved in all have good benefits to each of us as individuals and to us as a family unit. But the structure of those things keeps us in the car constantly. It keeps us from consistently eating dinner together, which is something that's really a value for us. It's really important to us. And it just gives me the feeling that we don't have any nights free. And it's a feeling that I know my kids share because they'll say like, "Do we not have anything tonight? Oh, I'm so glad that we don't have anything tonight." And I think this is coming from the fact that unlike when I was in school, most of their activities are not affiliated with school. And even the ones that are involve a lot of parent transportation. They do not have bussing provided for their school activities. I mean, I was in the marching band. That is an intense time commitment, but it didn't feel the way their activities feel because I would stay after school and get on a bus. And it meant that all my friends were together, stopping and eating dinner together. And it was like a school provided way for me to hang out with my people all the time. And that just is not part of my kids experience right now. And I don't know if that's unique to our school system or where we live. I have a feeling that it's not unique to us. And then Chad and I are coaches for academic team programs in two schools, which wouldn't have happened when I was a kid. Teachers were the coaches of everything. It wouldn't have been to parents. And that adds another set of time constraints and commitments. So church has a different place in our life than it had in my family growing up. And free time has a different place. We watch very, very little TV compared to the amount of TV that I watched as a kid. And I'm just thinking about like I think that we are out of balance in some ways, but I think the reason that we're out of balance is not so much a matter of individual choices as much as just the structure of things where we are.  

Sarah [00:38:51] Yeah. When you brought this up, it was really interesting. I don't feel busy. I like that our kids sort of commitments. I don't feel stressed or overcommitted that we eat dinner together almost every night of the week. But as we were like talking through this, it's exactly what you were pinpointing, which is not really necessarily individual choices. So both Jane and Griffin play the violin and you're like, well, Jane has two lessons a week. And I'm like, why? But why? And then we realized because Griffin takes orchestra at school. So it is a class he takes, so he practices together as a group; whereas, she has to have an individual group practice outside the school system. And I don't know if when Josh Coffey, a beloved member of my community, started Time On The String musical lessons he purposely chose the plan that is in walking distance of my children's elementary school and middle school. If he did that on purpose, I don't know if he did it on purpose, but it was genius if that was a part of his business model. Applause all around because my children walked to their music lessons after school. So there's two things I don't deal with, basically. Griffin has a D&D club, stays after school, the school lets them host it. Now I will say that my future problem solving [Inaudible] was apparent, but it was all built in the school day. Griffin's future problem solving is built in the school day. The school busses him. I give him lunch money. They do everything. He comes back and tells me about it. I think Paducah we're always a little old school and we're very protective, particularly in the city school system, of that vibe. And because a lot of the kids in our school system are low income, there is no parents taking off in the middle of the day and driving them places. People work and that's how I grew up. When I was growing up, and I don't know what your experience was, I did not have a single friend with a stay at home mom. Not a single friend. Every single friend of mine came from a two parent working household. Most of them were teachers. One of them owned a hair salon.  

Beth [00:40:51] I think I had one friend with a stay at home mom, but everybody else I knew both parents [Inaudible].  

Sarah [00:40:55] I mean, that's still pretty true where we live. There's not even a lot of flexible work. People are professionals, people work, they don't have time to go in the middle of the day and drop people places.  

Beth [00:41:03] Yeah. In our community, I would say, has a pretty high rate of one parent staying at home with kids.  

Sarah [00:41:10] Wow.  

Sarah [00:41:11] Our community has nothing within walking distance of the schools. You can't walk anywhere from the schools. It's suburbia. And I'm not trying to be critical. I love our school system. On balance, I think our schools are doing a phenomenal job with my children. And I will talk your head off about why that is. So these aren't complaints as much as it's just dawning on me why this feels so stressful and how I don't want to eliminate any of the things that we're doing. These activities are where my girls in particular are developing the most resilience and where they're being pushed out of their comfort zones the most. And I understand why teachers don't coach all the activities anymore, and I understand why the bussing is so complex. I'm not pointing a finger at anybody as much as I'm just trying to, like, climb up the stairs and look down at my life and figure out where the hours are going.  

Sarah [00:42:05]  Well, and I just think that's what we do, though. We say you really need to be as parents shepherding your children through all these experiences so they gain the benefits of them. And it starts to feel like an individual choice. And I think it's so wise to stand back and be like, wait a second, are these individual choices? I mean, again, just comparing and contrasting these two little things that we have orchestra in the middle school. We don't have it in the high school, which is weird. And I don't understand that. And I'm going to ask some questions, but what a difference that small thing can make. Amos has art club after school. It's just all contained within the school system. And, like you said, that's how we grew up. All my socialization was either at church or at school in. The strange thing is, we have activities weeknights Monday through Wednesday. So Griffin and Amos have Boy Scouts on Monday. Felix has Cub Scouts. Amos has tenacity training on Tuesday. We have church on Wednesday. But that's it. And then Thursday's completely free. Friday they have music lessons, but they walk and then I pick them up. It's like a nothing burger. None of my kids play sports. But beyond archery your kids aren't playing with travel leagues or anything, right?  

Beth [00:43:12] No. And I have an example within my life that helps me conceptualize this issue. Ellen was in The Sound of Music last semester at the local high school, and she was able to walk from her elementary school to the high school for practice. They sit right next to each other and so she was there almost 9 hours a week. But that felt like a pressure relief for our family, not a burden, because she just went after school and was there at school and all we had to do was pack a snack for her and pick her up at the end of the day.  

Sarah [00:43:44] Yeah.  

Beth [00:43:44] And now she's taking a one hour acting class a week that is a 15 minute drive each way, at a time that Jane has a violin lesson. So we're both running kids in different directions. And so that one hour commitment is harder than the nine hour commitment that she had when it was all based at school.  

Sarah [00:44:04] I will never forget Kristen Howerton posting I think it was probably last year. And she was like the number one thing that has changed her life is that she has four high schoolers, but they live within walking distance of the high school. So they just walk to their extracurriculars and they walk they're happy butts home. Like it's all contained. They can get to everything and you're not shepherding them. That's huge. Even in my community, even if I'm picking up, when I say I'm picking up from art club or I'm picking up from D&D, that's a four and a half minute drive. That's not a time commitment. Sometimes I forget that because it's so minimal. So, yeah,all that matters. And that's like city planning. That's not anybody's individual choice.  

Beth [00:44:42] Right. And there are some benefits. Jane tells me more about her life in that 20 minute drive to her violin lesson than I hear in a lot of other spaces. I think there's something about being in a car that opens kids up. And I'm not upset about any of it. I'm just struggling through it because I feel the blur of how quickly this time is passing. I have also said to them, "You must do some things. If you don't want to do this, that's fine, but you must pick something else." Because I do think that they need some of this. None of what my kids are involved in for me is about a college scholarship or about building a resume. It's about grit and determination and struggle. So I'm really happy with what they're doing and how they're doing it. It's just the logistics of it that are complex in a way that I think is relatively new, at least in my life experiences.  

Sarah [00:45:38] Well, we said that's Outside Politics, but I don't really think it is. I think this sits at the intersection of a lot of interesting political conversation. That's why we love having these. That's why we love how all of you join us in these conversations. And I'm sure we'll have lots to say after this episode. Thank you for joining us. And a reminder, if you're in Florida or headed there for spring break like we are with our families, we'd love for you to join us at The Abbey in Orlando on Wednesday, April 5th. You can get tickets at the link in the show notes. We will be back in your ears on Tuesday. And until then, keep it nuanced y'all.  

Beth [00:46:22] Pantsuit Politics is produced by Studio D Podcast Production. Alise Napp is our managing director.  

Sarah [00:46:28] Maggie Penton is our community engagement manager. Dante Lima is the composer and performer of our theme music.  

Beth [00:46:34] Our show is listener-supported. Special thanks to our executive producers.  

Executive Producers [00:46:38] Martha Bronitsky. Ali Edwards. Janice Elliott. Sarah Greenup. Julie Haller, Helen Handley. Tiffany Hassler. Emily Holladay. Katie Johnson. Katina Zuganelis Kasling. Barry Kaufman. Molly Kohrs.. Katherine Vollmer. Laurie LaDow. Lily McClure. Linda Daniel, Emily Neesley. The Pentons. Tawni Peterson. Tracy Puthoff. Sarah Ralph. Jeremy Sequoia. Katie Stigers. Karin True. Onica Ulveling. Nick and Alysa Villeli. Amy Whited. Emily Helen Olsen. Lee Chaix McDonough. Morgan McHugh.  

Beth [00:47:17] Jeff Davis. Melinda Johnston. Michelle Wood. Joshua Allen. Nicole Berklas. Paula Bremer and Tim Miller.  

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