Instability Around the Globe


TOPICS DISCUSSED

  • Financial Markets

  • Haiti, Iran, and China

  • Outside Politics: Thanksgiving

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EPISODE RESOURCES

CURRENCY AND BOND MARKETS

FAILED STATES

HAITI

IRAN

CHINA

TRANSCRIPT

Sarah [00:00:07] This is Sarah Stewart Holland. 

Beth [00:00:08] And this is Beth Silvers.  

Sarah [00:00:10] Thank you for joining us for Pantsuit Politics.  

Beth [00:00:26] Hello, everyone. Thanks for joining us for a new episode of Pantsuit Politics. Listen, we're coming off a holiday and we're just putting our foot right down on the accelerator. We've a pretty dense episode for you today because we wanted to start thinking about instability in economies and in governments. We are about to get a report from the January six committee. We are about to transition power to a new Congress and to new governors and legislators across the country. And the conversation is building about 2024 in the United States. So we thought this is a good moment to step way back and talk about instability. So we're going to think about the context for the inflation we're experiencing and the tools we're bringing to that problem. And what happens when economic instability leads to political instability and people actually lose confidence in their governments. And then Outside of Politics, Sarah is going to delight you by talking about her Thanksgiving in New York.  

Sarah [00:01:21] Before we get started, I want to give you a little holiday save the date. If you are a member of our premium community, we are going to have a holiday party on December 15th. We will have more details to come. But this is a great time to become a premium member if you aren't already so that you can join us. I love holiday parties of all shapes and sizes.  

Beth [00:01:40] Next up, we are going to talk about what is going on in the global economy. Well, as everyone knows, we have an inflation situation happening here in the United States. And our Federal Reserve has been dealing with the very real strain families are experiencing around prices for certain goods and services. What we wanted to talk about today is how we are not alone and how the volatility in economies across the world and in digital currency all seem to indicate that monetary policy might be in a new era with some new roles. Like this transitional time we've experienced in many sectors of our lives over the past few years seems to be extending to the economy as well.  

Sarah [00:02:32] Well, and like every other institution, the pandemic accelerated those changes. Absolutely. Last month we talked about this in the U.K. The new prime minister, Sunak, has gone all the way back to a more traditional financial policy to create that economic stability. But, again, even in Britain, even if you don't have a Liz Truss at the helm, you see these depreciating currencies, particularly in comparison to the dollar. You see it with the euro, you see it with the Japanese yen, you see it with the Norwegian crown. There are lots of places where the currency itself is depreciating.  

Beth [00:03:12] I appreciated that Axios pointed out how the U.S. dollar is actually pretty solid relative to other countries for a few reasons. One, we are not completely reliant on imported energy. Number two, the dollar is the world's major reserve currency. So we still get to kind of be the standard against which other currencies are measured.   

Sarah [00:03:37] And I don't see that changing any time soon. Remember when we used to talk about that a lot? We talk about, oh, what if the U.S. isn't the world currency? I feel like that conversation has died.  

Beth [00:03:46] At least for now. And the third reason is that we are not dealing with something like Brexit or other massive political upheaval. As tumultuous as our politics feel, worldwide we're pretty steady here and that really benefits the value of our currency.  

Sarah [00:04:03] Well, and across the globe, including here in the United States, this phase that feels like it's coming to an end is a global approach where deficits don't really matter. Countries everywhere, including the U.S., we're running pretty high deficits. And where high inflation is really acting as a constraint on that spend, spend, spend sort of juice the economy through high government spending, run up a deficit. Who cares? Money is cheap. So let's spend and borrow. And now everyone is running out of road with that approach. And that's why you see Liz Truss plan to continue that-- even go further to spend and cut taxes-- falls apart. You see real instability in the British economy because everyone is like, oh, no, no, we're not doing that anymore. We're not doing that anymore. And you definitely hear it here in the U.S. One of the big things that Congress will be debating during this lame-duck session and particularly next year, is continued spending militarily with aid to Ukraine. There's just an increased appetite for constraining government spending in the United States and around the globe.  

Beth [00:05:25] One place where this shift in what monetary policy for governments might need to look like as showing up is the bond market. Usually sovereign bond markets are quite stable and investors understand I'm going to get a lower return when I invest in government bonds, but that's because my risk is going to be lower. Now, governments issue bonds to raise capital, to pay their debts or to fund improvements. And the bond market is just the marketplace where investors buy those securities. Bonds are priced according to interest rates, which determine how existing bonds compare to new bonds, as well as the credit worthiness of the borrower. And we have had months of turbulence in bond markets, unusual turbulence because of inflation, because of how quickly central banks are raising interest rates to try to combat inflation. And because overall everyone is sort of bracing for the characteristics of a recession, it does look like that is starting to stabilize. Investors are adjusting. They are having a greater appetite for some of the risk associated with bonds. Inflation might be peaking. I hate to even say that out loud, but I'm just going to cross my fingers and hope so.  

Sarah [00:06:40] I know. Risk it.  

Beth [00:06:41] And there are strategists saying this is a good moment to get serious about investing in bonds again.  

Sarah [00:06:46] Well, it feels like it's this disjointed pacing. When you look at the bond markets, when you look at cryptocurrency, which we're about to talk about in a minute, where it's like we had those weird moments where everyone has huge economic concerns and investors are jumpy. And so you see central banks really stepping up, like at the beginning of the pandemic where our central bank was issuing an enormous amount of bonds. But then all of a sudden, then the stock market is still doing really well, but it seems completely discombobulated from everybody's perception of how the economy is doing. I think there's been so many times over the last few months where I've had personal conversation or we've talked about on the show, like, is the stock market just completely detached from reality? And I don't think it's detached from reality, but I do think there's this weird pacing problem where we're out of step either globally or the central banks are so focused on their own national reserve policy that it's bumping up against the fact that we're really a global economy. And so you just feel this tension, this pulling and then the straining and then all all of a sudden you'll have all the slack in the line. I'm mixing a lot of metaphors here, but I don't know how else to describe it. It does feel like hurry up and wait or pull, pull, pull, and then there's too much and everybody's slinging forward. It's just this very discombobulating feeling.  

Beth [00:08:26] It's a little bit like the midterm election analysis. Here's what history would say should happen right now. And then it doesn't happen that way because there are too many variables. And I think that's what's happening with the economy. That's what's happening in the headlines as we're sitting down to record on Monday morning. You hear analysts saying, wait a second, high inflation and the expectation of recession. Why did we have record Black Friday spending? Why do we think Cyber Monday is going to be huge? And it's just because nothing is tracking with what the conventional wisdom would tell us, because there are too many variables, and that's probably a good transition to cryptocurrency. We have been experimenting with the idea that these central banks are a real pain and we should be able to carve out a new frontier where currency isn't regulated so stringently. And the company that was supposed to sort of blaze a trail for cryptocurrency, to do it ethically, to partner with governments, to regulate it in the ways that are necessary, that it was going to bail out other cryptocurrencies when they failed. FTX filed for bankruptcy, and it's been really fascinating to read all of the retrospectives about why. I feel like every time someone writes something new about Sam Bankman-Fried, I want to read it because there are so many factors that created the perfect storm for this company to go down. And on the one hand, you think, well, maybe this is just uniquely bad management, uniquely bad co-mingling of assets between two companies, uniquely bad rejection of external advisors and romantic relationships in the boardroom and all the things. But at the same time, some of the problem with cryptocurrency is that there is nothing behind it. And so a whole set of questions are opened up because of FTX's failure.  

Sarah [00:10:19] Again, is that pacing problem. The interest in crypto far outpaced the infrastructure for crypto. I know sometimes it gets a bad rap, guys, but our federally backed financial structure is something we all really take for granted. As evidenced by the fact that so many people were participating in the exchange at FTX with this assumption that it would be federally backed  like a money in a bank, so if something goes under you can still get your money. We just take that for total and complete granted.  Even like you stop seeing the little FTX-- well, the language at the bottom.  But it matters when it's not there.  I think even going back to all the Super Bowl commercials that were saying like get in, get in, because this is it and this is going to be... There's still some of that narrative out there. And I don't think crypto is over, but I think it outkicked its coverage.  

Beth [00:11:23] I'm having a lot of conversations in my life about television right now. It seems like every time I'm gathered with people and we start talking about TV shows, inevitably the conversation sort of becomes, I hate having all these streaming services. I wish things were bundled again. I wish we kind of went back to like basic cable. And I've been thinking about this with cryptocurrency. It's okay for us to try to innovate and it's okay for us to sort of walk out ahead of ourselves and and say, no, too far. We need to come back a little bit. We need to moderate the vision that we had. I think my concern about doing that with cryptocurrency is that money is a whole different ballgame and the fungibility of money and that government backing of it does enable you to say, okay, I'm going to take some risk, but not all the risk. It's worth talking about cryptocurrency to me and connection with the rest of this conversation, just to remind ourselves that there are so many variables and the simplistic discussions that we are hearing, especially from some politicians about inflation, just don't capture everything that's happening out there right now. And maybe that's always been true, but it is particularly true and I think obvious today as you look across the global landscape.  

Sarah [00:12:39] And it just feels like a particularly important moment to just say, hey, we see it, too. All these factors, all these complications. Because it's a hectic time of year that involves enormous amounts of money. And so just to say, yeah, it's wild out there and not just in the cryptocurrency space when global markets and world currencies are experiencing a lot of fluctuation. That sense of unease we feel is reasonable, although there is a poll this morning that most workers feel pretty secure in their job, not like they're going to get laid off, not like they're going to see a decrease in income over the next few months. But even if you don't see a decrease in income, you see a decrease in take home because the prices of everything are rising. And those conversations, and I'm sure many of you had them over the Thanksgiving holiday, can become very simplistic in a way that doesn't acknowledge the enormous complexity when you're talking about something like the global economy. And so we just wanted to say, hey, here is a space that we acknowledge the enormous complexity of the global economy.  

Beth [00:13:46] And we haven't even scratched the surface. But we do want to transition because instability in economies often leads to political instability. And we want to talk about a few examples of places in the world that pretty dramatically illustrate that connection and also talk about what lessons we can take from governments that are experiencing huge amounts of instability right now. So we'll do that right after this break. Sarah, as I was preparing for this conversation, I was thinking about how many times you'll say, like, what are we really doing with countries? What are we really doing with states? What's the idea here? Well, that led me to think a little bit about some vocabulary, so just a little vocabulary before we get started so we know what we're talking about. When we use the term state, we are talking about being sovereign over a territory and a group of people in it. Most of the world uses the term state the way that we use countries here in the U.S.. Nations are groups of people with common histories, stories, culture, economies and rights. There are many nations that don't have states in the world, and those nations without states are often the source of lots of violence and conflict in territories, especially as we talk about Western Asia and other parts of Asia and Africa. Nation-states, when we hyphenate it, that's a sovereign territory with one group of individuals who share that common history. And we don't really have those anymore because just about every state in the world has more than one nation of people living in it. And I thought it would be interesting to just bring alongside all of this two terms that we're talking about a lot in the U.S. right now. One is national identity, and that is just the idea that we have a sense of attachment to our nations. And the other is nationalism, which uses that sense of attachment to justify political action. Nationalism throughout the globe leads to that belief that every nation has a right to be a nation state where you should just have states built around people with common histories and cultures. And so as we start thinking about what's the purpose of a state and what happens when states don't meet that purpose, I just want to keep all those terms in mind to kind of stay with your question, Sarah, like, what are we doing when we draw these borders?  

Sarah [00:16:13] For me, I grew up with this underlying assumption that nations were nation states. That the countries we talked about were based on that sort of shared identity and common history. And then, of course, all that sort of falls apart and you learn no way sometimes people just drew a line. And so then the question really is why did we draw that line and why do we continue to enforce it? And I think that is a very difficult question. And I think the other thing is we use the word sovereign with the assumption that it's uncrossable. We've learned right now with Ukraine that's not true. The more you learn about world history, the older you get, you realize, oh, no, we interfere in each other's affairs all the time. So what does sovereign even mean if this entire structure is built on the idea of sovereignty, which we don't often respect. Then really, really, what are we doing? And I think that's a great place to start talking about Haiti, which so many of you guys have sent us messages. We've been following the story for months, and we really wanted to give space on the show to talk about it, because there is real human suffering, because it is incredibly important not just to the present state of global affairs and the future state of global affairs, but it gets to so many of these issues, particularly interference in sovereign nations.  

Beth [00:17:44] So Haiti, as a state, has not been able to do one of the foundational things that states do, which is just maintaining law and order. And that's been true for years. Haiti has a long history of criminal gangs doing violence and essentially rendering the government ineffective. And gangs rapidly expanded their power under former president Jovenel Moise. Moise came to power in a tumultuous election. During his tenure there were lots of anti-government protests and then he was assassinated last July. It's believed that a group of Colombian mercenaries killed him. That investigation is ongoing. We don't know the motive yet. After his assassination, a new prime minister took over Ariel Henry. He's never been confirmed by parliament. And so now you have an even bigger crisis of legitimacy around the government. And that's created a power vacuum that gangs have stepped in to fill.  

Sarah [00:18:41] The situation that that has created on the ground for the people of Haiti is truly, I think, almost impossible to imagine. You listen to reporters who have been to Haiti for years and have gone recently, and you hear the shock and horror in their voices. Haiti, (again, this is a theme you'll hear often when we talk about this country) hasn't had a strong infrastructure ever and certainly not recently. Some of that is still fallout from the 2010 earthquake that just decimated whatever infrastructure was in place to begin with. I mean, they don't have a functioning electric grid. It functions primarily based on diesel, which created a market for gangs to exploit. You read a lot about that they took command of the diesel and the fuel and then people can't get electricity. You don't have a government that can function as far as like trash pickup and gas stations. You have massive protests. The part I can't get over is because of the weather and the enormous rains at certain times of the year and then the trash is not getting picked up. A reporter described it as a trash river. And that's just basic electricity and trash. We haven't even gotten to food, medical supplies, much less something like school. I mean, just the basic building blocks of modern human society have crumbled underneath the people of Haiti.  

Beth [00:20:33] And in the midst of all that, you have violence that is hard to appreciate sitting here in the United States. The gangs are constantly in fights with each other. So to get anywhere, people feel like they have to cross through the front lines of a war. The gangs rape and kidnap. They have burned down entire neighborhoods with people in their homes. There have been nearly a thousand reported kidnapings just this year. And this is not surprising given that Sarah was just talking about trash rivers, cholera is spreading throughout the world and it is really spreading in Haiti. And to get their children to the hospital to be treated, parents are having to go through these incredibly violent situations because of gangs. Medical teams can't do what they need to do. They can't get to parts of Haiti that they need to get to. And we are at the point now where gangs have blocked shipments of fuel coming into the country. They have blocked shipments of water coming into the country. They have blocked medical action. And the United Nations has said, folks, we have tried and tried to negotiate humanitarian corridors and it's not working. The United Nations is saying that armed action is going to be necessary just to establish a humanitarian corridor, not even to start to work out the political problems that are for the people of Haiti themselves to decide, but just to get supplies into this country. For it to continue to function, the United Nations is recommending armed action.  

Sarah [00:22:11] And the role of the United Nations is probably an important moment to reference. The problems for the people of Haiti are centuries in the making. We don't have time to get into the history of Haiti, but it is racialised. It is oppressive. And it is filled with international interventions that made the situation worse. And so it feels in the conversation surrounding Haiti as if so many people in Haiti are like don't. We understand how terrible it is, but every time there's an international intervention, it makes it worse. So there has been talk of U.S. and Canada sending tactical equipment to help Haiti's police. But again the police should be standing on the block of a legitimate government, which they are not. And so there's been a lot of riding around the Montana Accords, which was proposed in August of 2021. It's a commission for a search to a Haitian solution to the crisis. It's civic, religious, political organization and leaders that assembled after the assassination. They are submitting proposals, calls for a provisional government to take over. But, I mean, I understand the narrative that any international intervention can make it worse. I don't know how you get to a provisional government without some sort of military or police support or even push back against the gangs. It's just such an impossibly difficult situation.  

Beth [00:24:03] So in Haiti, you have a situation where government has just collapsed and you see the impact of that. We want to think about that and hold alongside it what's happening in Iran, where you have this brutal, militarized, repressive, theocratic regime. And that tight control isn't working. We are now in our third month of protests following Mahsa Amini's death. The regime has killed more than 400 protesters and arrested more than 15,000. There's a group of optometrists and ophthalmologists who've written this report about how many people are being blinded from being shot with metal pellets and rubber bullets.  

Sarah [00:24:45] Oh, my God.  

Beth [00:24:46]  And still Iranians are not backing down. Young people, university and high school students, minority communities in border regions, urban elite, there are all kinds of groups in Iran who have just had enough and are not deterred by the truly brutal tactics that the regime employs.  

Sarah [00:25:07] These protests have truly been something to behold. And they're staying power I think is a testament not just to the the bravery and the dedication of the Iranian people, but that the choices outside these protests are bleak. You only protest and risk your life because you don't have anything else to fight for. I mean, going back to our previous conversation, the economy in Iran is terrible. This is in huge part due to international sanctions, but there isn't a lot of opportunity. And when you don't have a future in front of you as an Iranian young person, then the risk of death is is not that much of a risk. What are you sacrificing? What are you leaving behind if there's no economic future, if there's no freedom of expression or arguably choice or free will or anything in front of you in? Again, it's a situation that I think is so impossibly difficult for us to imagine as Americans and also tied up with the decisions of our government and our presence in that region of the world. And I don't expect those protests to end any time soon.  

Beth [00:26:44] I also don't expect the regime to back down. Over the weekend, Khamenei rejected any possibility of compromise and praised the state actors who are employing brutal tactics against protesters. So you don't see a lot of movement here. And I just am kind of pausing to think again about what is a state supposed to be? It is supposed to provide that law and order where we have a total breakdown in Haiti, but it is supposed to balance that with enabling citizens to be free and to lead prosperous lives. And in Iran, we see the state as an obstacle to living free and prosperous lives. And then that takes us to China, where we have a state that has really justified its existence for the past couple of decades through that prism of law and order. That we maintain things. That our society works, it functions. That free expression is a recipe for anarchy. And that we will keep you as citizens, safe and prosperous. And that philosophy that emanates from the Chinese Communist Party and particularly from Xi Jinping, has run headlong into COVID 19 and it has created a completely game changing situation. I was shocked over the weekend to see the reports of pretty large scale protests and the way that the Chinese people are rising up as they are going through another period of COVID lockdowns.  

Sarah [00:28:19] I think the important part of that promise was not just safety but prosperity, and that has fallen out from underneath the Chinese people between the lockdowns, which in the beginning the promise of keeping you safe is important and it can go a long way. But I cannot fathom living under these level of lockdowns for almost three years. I just cannot comprehend and again maybe if there was still prosperity. But that level of lockdown doesn't just affect the citizens of China. It affects the economy. It has affected the global economy because so much of our global supply chain is built on manufacturing in China. And so when everybody goes on lockdown and the factories go on lockdown too, that affects everything. And so you just hear story after story of workers basically locked in the factory with not enough food, people in their apartments with not enough food, people being separated from their children. There was a terrible bus wreck where people were being bussed to a quarantine center and 27 people died. Now you have this fire where there are videos that are spreading across the country of China, despite massive censorship, showing that the emergency workers couldn't get in the building, like they're literally locked in. You're running headlong into all these factors, just building and building and building. Not to mention just the reality of COVID in China to begin with, which is the vaccines created by the Chinese government are not that effective.  

Beth [00:30:07] And it is remarkable to see the extent of the protests that people are shouting for Xi Jinping to step down. For the communist party to step aside. This is in a country where there have been times when internet censors have blocked content that just uses him because people were referring to Jinping as him to try to get around the censorship. It is so repressive. I cannot highly enough recommend The Economist's podcast, The Prince, about Xi and about how he came to power and has solidified his power. And I cannot wait for updates. I hope that they do updates to talk about what's going on now. Police are pushing back, so we are seeing people being dragged and beaten. A BBC reporter was beaten and arrested. He was told that he was being detained by authorities to prevent him from getting COVID. And this is a real thing with people out gathered in these protests, COVID will likely spread. And doctors have warned the Communist Party that China's health care system is not up for the challenge of a huge outbreak of COVID. And so you can kind of imagine how quickly this situation could spiral in multiple directions, which I am certain Xi is thinking about and will tempt him to be even more and more repressive and trying to shut it down.  

Sarah [00:31:34] Well, it just is a reminder of how brittle this form of power is, especially when it's not floating on a river of money, which it has for the past several years. And I think just in the last six months, how many times have we said, oh, this is so rare, you don't see it in China. How many times do we say that before it stops being rare? We saw the protesters drop the sign over the overpass. We saw the former president sort of dragged out of the Communist Party. Like, that stuff you can't just erase it. We've all read plenty of novels and watched plenty of television shows about dystopian governments where censorship only goes so far. There's really no zero-covid policy and there's no zero tolerance as far as censorship. Even where they have the incredible technology they do in China, you still have the Internet, you still have humans. If they were getting messages in the underground through the Nazi government World War Two, they're going to get stuff out with cell phones and Internet and they're going to see and this is going to build. You're going to get a little blip here and be like, hmm, same in Russia, right? There is no total control. If your power is built on total control, then it is going to inevitably splinter and break because that is impossible when humans are involved. And it's like how much of human history do these dudes need to ignore to think is going to turn out differently for them?  

Beth [00:33:07] Well, and I think that that is the big picture takeaway. That it is just difficult to balance all of the competing interests that governments are supposed to be balancing and to find that spot where a government is actually creating more freedom for people, and that more freedom has elements of safety and law and stability underlying it instead of squelching it. And it's just difficult to get that right. And on the one hand, looking at these countries really makes me appreciate our form of government in the United States. And on the other hand, it leads me to serious questions about our governments tendency to interfere in countries across the world. Because I also think there is a balance to be had. How much humanitarian aid is interference versus truly just wanting people to survive and thrive? What do we do in situations like Syria where you see a repressive regime become genocidal? That tension is also a really difficult one to navigate.  

Sarah [00:34:21] When I look at Haiti, I think, I don't want to hear people complain about government anymore. Because when you take out government, it is like a time machine. I feel like you look at Haiti and you realize that government has been the vehicle for human advancement because they're living in the middle ages. I feel like that is what has happened when you take out any sort of societal structure that provides security, that provides infrastructure, that provides health care. I mean, when you're talking about trash rivers and we don't know who's shooting who and roving gangs, I mean, it's literally like reading a medieval text, right? That's what that feels like to me. So back to our original question. Well, what are we doing? Well, that's it. Maybe it's less about the lines and it's more about the foundation that those states build wherever you are. When I look to places like Iran and and Haiti and I think about our history of intervention, I have a complicated relationship with transparency. That sounds really terrible, but let me explain. I'm not 100% convinced that C-SPAN was a one all the way good thing that happened to our government. Open committee meetings. I think there's a lot of government that works better when people can compromise and even strike a deal without just 100% attention all the time. I also think that 100% attention on the government all the time builds cynicism in people, which is not what we want. We don't want cynicism. Look at Haiti. Do not be cynical about the importance of government in our lives.  

[00:36:23] However, I don't have a complicated relationship with transparency when it comes to international intervention. I think that while it has been difficult, it has increased cynicism. I think the fact that there has been all this unearthing and really, really, difficult awareness. And just facing it, just looking at what we have done and what that has wrought across the world has been important, not because I hope the lesson is we don't ever do this, we don't ever step up and help, we don't ever interfere. When I'm talking about the importance of government and democracy, I am incredibly proud of the role the United States government has played with Ukraine. I'm getting emotional. I had a conversation with a friend who is, like, I don't know, we're spending so much more than Europe. And I'm, like, I don't really care. I don't care.  I think it's important and it's essential. And so I just hope we can get transparency and figure out a better way to do it. Because I don't think that the lesson of the 20th century is not to ever protect democracy, to not ever interfere. I just think we have to learn some lessons and do it carefully. And I hope that we don't do what we always do, which is overcorrect and to step out altogether, which I don't think we're doing. Obviously, we're not doing that in Ukraine, but it is difficult to look at our intervention in Ukraine and look at what the people of Haiti are suffering and say are we doing this right? Are we balancing this correctly?  

Beth [00:37:56] I'm always looking for a rubric. What are our guideposts? Can we have some kind of coherent foreign policy? Putting together our discussion about the economy and about these nations and the lessons of history and also the variables present that weren't present in history. Just, for example, the fact that Haiti in some ways is living a version of the middle ages, but with lots of guns. So everything that we can bring to it is also changing. And the spread of disease throughout the world, the acceleration of all these factors post-COVID, I think that I need to enhance my capacity to think flexibly because, yes, some principles are really important and we are just living through a really transitional time at every dimension. And that means that a lot of the answers that we might get if we ran something through a prism of the way we used to do this or what our principles would generally lead us to, I might miss a lot of the analysis.  

Sarah [00:39:04] Well, and there's just so much in the house we haven't even touched. Obviously, race is a huge component when we talk about the history of Haiti. Haiti was the first nation to permanently ban slavery. It was a nation of freed black slaves. And it was a huge, huge, threat to the global order at that time. That cannot be ignored. And I don't think that is irrelevant even todayin 2022. And there's just all these incredible complicating factors, even with Ukraine when you're talking about the fall of the Soviet Union, the Cold War, our interference in that. We won't even get into our history with Iran. It's like, again, you're holding so much complexity if you just talk about the last six months, much less if you talk about the last two centuries. Back to our conversation about the economy. We are tied up together as a global community. And so it was important for us and will continue to be important to us here at Pantsuit Politics to just hold that complexity, to say we see what's happening to our fellow global citizens and these places around the world. And it matters to us not just because it affects the U.S. economy, not because there are U.S. politics at play, but because we are tied up together with the people of Haiti and the people of Ukraine and the people of China and the people of Iran.  

Beth [00:40:38] We always end our show by talking about what's on our minds Outside of Politics. And Sarah, I know that you are ready to tell us all about your Thanksgiving. 

Sarah [00:40:48] Guys, it was so perfect. Everyone, listen to me. You just got to go. You got to go to the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade once in your life. I actually saw a quote today that I wanted to share. I thought it was so great. It's from Daniel Burnham and it says, "Make no little plans. They have no magic to stir men's blood and probably themselves will not be realized. Make big plans, aim high and hope and work remembering that a noble, logical diagram once recorded will never die, but long after we are gone will be a living thing." I just love that. I love that because I think vacations are intimidating to people and I get this a lot in my DMs like, oh, I don't know, but you've inspired me. I'm going to do it. Just do it. Whatever you're thinking about, it's like our into the woods discussion. Whatever is on your bucket list. So many people said to me, oh, going to the Macy's Parade is on my bucket list. Do it. The time is now. Make big plans. My husband was a little skeptical, but we had such a perfect day on Thursday.  I cannot endorse this experience enough. You're standing with all these cross-section of humanity. I stood next to a woman named Joanne who'd been to 36 Macy's Thanksgiving Day parades. Can you imagine? Thirty six. Don't worry, everybody. I got her cell phone number. We can fully exploit all her expertize into the future. I stood next to the keyboardist for Yola. He plays the keyboard for Yola and his girlfriend was like an artist. She does these amazing drawings. Her and Felix were playing a little drawing game together. I just cannot tell you how incredible it was. The adults were like kids. That was my favorite part about it. I think the adults perhaps are more excited to be there than many of the children because every giant balloon we were just in awe of, I literally found myself like tearing up a little bit at the Sesame Street parade float. I just was, like, they were there. Big Bird was right in front of me and I was not prepared for a my my emotional reaction. And forget it. When Santa came by, we were full elf. We were literally screaming, I know him. I know him. We were all so excited.The weather was perfect. The people were perfect. The parade was perfect. I just I'm still floating, pun intended, on my happiness from the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade.  

Beth [00:43:18] Well, I'm so glad that it was perfect. It was really fun to see all of your pictures. Will you do it again soon,do you think? Is it going to be an annual trip for you?  

Sarah [00:43:27] Probably not, probably not annual, although I can't imagine ever doing it again. I had so much fun. Although I'm a little worried, could any experience living up to this. I mean, I ordered the perfect weather. I manifested it. I said I want to be high forties and sunny, and that's exactly what it was. I love New York City during the holidays. We went last Christmas, so I'm sure we'll come back again. We saw three shows. We saw Six-- which you guys were right, it was my favorite. Don't be mad when you hear I also saw Heidi's Town. I feel like all Heidi's Town people are going come in my DMs and be like it's better, but I like Six better, guys. I'm sorry. And then we saw Moulin Rouge because Lea michele did throw a wrench in my perfect weekend and got sick. It's okay. I'm trying to get over it. But it was just such a fun time to be there to get sort of the Thanksgiving and the Christmas. We had such a fantastic time and we had a Pantsuit Politics meet up at Bryant Park, which was so much fun.  

Beth [00:44:19] I was very jealous of that. I'm so glad that you got to meet some of our people.  

Sarah [00:44:23] Yeah, it was a good turnout. I think we had like ten or 15 people. Like a week ago, I was like, anybody want to meet? This was not a like deeply planned event, but we had so much fun. We sat around and talked and had hot chocolate and got to know each other. And I think several of the listeners who live in New York exchanged information so they can hang out in the future. We just had so much fun. I cannot endorse this experience enough. Whatever big bucket list trip, be it the Thanksgiving Day parade or otherwise that you're waiting to plan, let this be the Holy Spirit move in your life. Do it. Go now. Go forth. Travel. Experience. How was your Thanksgiving?  

Beth [00:45:03] It was hard, honestly. I know a lot of people had hard Thanksgivings, so maybe it's okay to just say that. But a lot of us have hard Thanksgivings and. I did get to spend some time the week before Thanksgiving with my parents and my sister and her husband and my niece. And that was wonderful. Niece time is the best of all times. And then we spend some time with friends over this weekend and I truly lived that. I get by with a little help from my friends, so I was very, very restored by getting to hang out with our friends this weekend. And my friends, Jen and Brian, cooked a wonderful meal. It was very strange for me to not be the one cooking everything. And Chad said that he saw and applauded my release of control and felt there was growth in that. And I said, thank you for noticing. And that part was really wonderful. And so I am super grateful for friends who are like family, especially when family is going through a hard season. So I agree with you. You got to live in the moment. And also some of those moments require you to be in places that don't feel magical at all. And you still know that they're the places that you need to be for that moment, because that also is life. And living life to the fullest involves facing down some of that suffering sometimes. And so that's kind of the side of the coin that we were on this Thanksgiving.  

Sarah [00:46:30] Well, now, your family was together because Ellen made her stage debut.  

Beth [00:46:34] She did.  

Sarah [00:46:36] She shined. She's a natural. I don't think anybody in our audience should be surprised by that. I'm more concerned with how she's handling the transition back to normal life because I know that the stage is intoxicating.  

Beth [00:46:53] The stage is intoxicating. If you are not tracking this conversation, my seven-year-old Ellen played Gretel in the high school's production of The Sound of Music. And so not only did she get to shine and experience the intoxication of the stage, she did it alongside teenagers who are intoxicating in their own way for a seven-year-old. And so the night after her last performance, she was lying in a ball on the kitchen floor, sobbing.  

Sarah [00:47:24] Bless.  

Beth [00:47:24] She has really been through the stages of grief with this, and she still has moments where she's like, I don't think I can talk about it right now. It hurts too much. She is so sad that it's over, but we will find new things for her to explore because I am certain this will not be her only role. It was really fun. So this was the week before Thanksgiving when she performed and it was the first time I got to see it. Parents were not allowed to come to any practices, so I did not get to see an hint of her performance until I was there in the audience having purchased tickets. And it was a joy that I find it difficult to describe. To see her light up and to see this is her thing and she has found it, and to watch her thriving in that role was a real gift for sure.  

Sarah [00:48:14] I mean, I volunteered to take her to New York with me and set her up in a studio apartment. But you insisted she probably needed a little bit more time in your life.  

Beth [00:48:20] I would like to keep her longer.  

Sarah [00:48:23] Just a little bit. All right.  

Beth [00:48:23] Yes, because she is pretty special and needed here in the house, even though this weekend her grief led her to act terribly. I think getting back to school and routine is going to be hard for her. The emotional roller coaster for a seven-year-old to navigate is a lot right now. But, again, that too is life. And I told her these moments of grief are just the other side of love. You grieve in proportion to how much you loved the experience because it's now over. And and I said, honestly, grieving your role in a musical is a pretty healthy way to be introduced to something that you're going to feel a lot in your life.  

Sarah [00:48:59]  Now, isn't that the truth? Well, I do want to say, because I know I'm going to get a lot of messages, I am going to write up our itinerary and all our parade viewing tips for those of you who want to attend the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade. There wasn't a lot of great information out there, you guys. So Nicholas and I are working hard on putting together all our tips because as for as long as this parade has been going on, you think there'd be more inside information on how to watch the parade. But we're going to put that together. There will be a link in the show notes, don't worry. And I do hope as many of you that can or who've been on the fence about planning this, go ahead at 2023. Let's do it.  

Beth [00:49:37] Thank you all so much for joining us today. We will be back in your ears on Friday. We're going to talk more about how important it is to grab your people and do things as the country is experiencing a real crisis of loneliness. If you listen today and want to know more about the Iranian protests in particular that we discussed, we released an episode with Western Asia expert Carrie Boyd Anderson that we'll link in the show notes. Again, you can find those at Pantsuitpoliticsshow.com Everybody, have the best week available to you.  

[00:50:23] Pantsuit Politics is produced by Studio D Podcast Production. Alise Napp is our managing director.  

Sarah [00:50:28] Maggie Penton is our community engagement manager. Dante Lima is the composer and performer of our theme music.  

Beth [00:50:34] Our show is listener-supported. Special thanks to our executive producers.  

Executive Producers (Read their own names) [00:50:38] Martha Bronitski. Linda Daniel. Allie Edwards. Janice Elliott. Sarah Greenup. Julie Haller. Helen Handley. Tiffany Hasler. Emily Holliday. Katie Johnson. Katina Zugenalis Kasling. Barry Kaufman. Molly Kohrs.. Laurie LaDow. Lilly McClure. Emily Neesley. Tawni Peterson. Tracy Puthoff. Sarah Ralph. Jeremy Sequoia. Katie Stiggers. Karen True. Onica Ulveling. Nick and Alysa Villeli. Katherine Vollmer. Amy Whited.  

Beth [00:51:12] Jeff Davis. Melinda Johnston, Michelle Wood. Joshua Allen. Morgan McCue. Nicole Berklas. Paula Bremer and Tim Miller.  

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