"What does an overheated economy look like?" (with Paul Krugman)

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Paul Krugman: [00:00:00] People are raising prices because they could, and then they still were raising prices because they saw other people raising prices and it kind of turned into a self fulfilling spiral so that's something that can happen, but it hasn't happened in America for a really long time. So do you ask why is it an overheated economy look like? You know, unless you're pretty much my age, you've never seen anything that really felt like an overheated economy.

Sarah: This is Sarah

Beth: And Beth. 

Sarah: You're listening to Pantsuit Politics.

Beth: The home of grace-filled political conversations.

Hello, and thank you so much for [00:01:00] joining us for today's new episode of Pantsuit Politics. In our first segment today, we're going to tackle some heartbreaking news as well as some really hopeful news stories. Then we'll share a conversation we had with Paul Krugman, economist, professor and columnist for the New York times. He helped us think about labor and economics and why the current rhetoric about inflation seems off to him, especially as it relates to the infrastructure packages. I know I learned a lot and got some clarity from this conversation so I hope you will too and then outside of politics, we're going to talk about what we're lovingly calling people, being jerks.

There seems to be an awful lot of really bad behavior in the world right now, spanning from rude interactions with customer service workers, to people trying to get into airplane cockpits and we're going to talk about what we think is going on there and how it kind of ties in with the moment that we're all living through but before we get started, we wanted to remind you that our infrastructure series is coming. If you're on social media, you probably saw the amazing [00:02:00] graphics Kathleen Shannon made to promote the series and Sarah heard this morning that we are like right on target with our July programming. 

Sarah: [00:02:07] Yeah. I was listening to MPRs Up First and Susan Davids, their congressional correspondent came on and said, yeah, Infrastructure talks are going to dominate July and I thought, I think that's still thoughtful of them to plan it this way. It's really, really considerate that they have placed this momentous legislation and the momentum for this legislation right in the middle of our special summer series. It's just really great guys.

Beth: [00:02:30] It is helpful. One thing that we learned a lot about in creating this series is that most infrastructure is built around expectations for a normal climate. This is how hot it usually gets, this is how cold it usually gets and things start to fail when the climate deviates from those expectations. We are seeing that right now in the Pacific Northwest so we want to send lots of love to those of you who are dealing with extreme heat there. We hope you are able to stay as cool and safe as possible and we hope to [00:03:00] continue to be able to talk about the need, to kind of shift our expectations around what normal looks like.

Sarah: [00:03:15] News has been dominated over the weekend by the collapse of the condominium in Surfside, Florida, and Beth, I thought immediately of our infrastructure talks and exactly what you just said before the break that infrastructure is built around expectations of normal climate that our expectations have to shift and that the collapse of essential infrastructure is horrific. You know, we've seen the failure of bridges. We've seen the failures of roads in the United States, but the collapse of occupied building and the middle of a seemingly ordinary night is not something we experience in America and I think that's what makes this story so shocking and it's what [00:04:00] makes this story. So incredibly heartbreaking.

Beth: [00:04:02] As we're recording this morning, we are aware of nine deaths here and 152 people missing. We are also learning that the owners of this building had been given reports going back at least three years, that there were serious maintenance issues that needed to be taken care of. They were coming up on a deadline to start to pay for some of those maintenance issues and this is a big part of what we learned in our infrastructure series as well. That it's an enormous investment to build something. It is also a commitment to maintain it and you cannot wait until the problem happens to reinvest in that project. You have to be maintaining as you go. Otherwise the results can be catastrophic and take you by surprise even when you've had a warning that they're coming. 

Sarah: [00:04:48] Yeah, I think that's, what's so hard. I mean, I think there is nothing more, truly horrendous than the thing that you would wake up in the middle of the night with the floors and walls [00:05:00] around you collapsed but I think as we learn more to know that there had been warnings about this particular building. You know, there are lots of spots in Florida and other parts of the country that are sinking. You know, they measure these using very specific scientific technology and I think I read that there are pieces in Florida that are sinking at about a one centimeter pace, some two as much as a two centimeter pace and the problem is when you have one piece of a building sinking at a faster pace then the other piece of the building.

 That creates that tension that can really, really lead to tragic results and what seems to be coming to light with this particular building is that there was a major error. I've read a lot about the pool deck. I've read a lot about really crumbling walls and columns and the parking lot. And so that there, there was some sort of error either when it was built or during maintenance that was creating a faster rate [00:06:00] within that part of the building. And that tension between one part of the building, giving out at a much faster rate than another part of the building is, is how you get to this incredible tragedy.

Beth: [00:06:14] When we look at real property like this, when we think about climate planning, it's really important to have your pessimists in the room because no one wants something like this to happen and everyone hopes that you invest a lot in constructing a solid architecturally sound structure, but you must have voices at the table saying, here are all the things that could go wrong and here's how they could go wrong and here's how they could go wrong in a scenario that seems really farfetched to you. I think a lot of what I have learned over the past, you know, 18 months to two years, as we try to do what Sarah, you always say, like integrate the COVID experience. I think I have really come to understand that there is an overwhelming drive in our culture to [00:07:00] say that we'll probably be fine. It probably won't happen. This seems okay. That looks solid and you know, having the capacity to heat a warning from people who see it differently and who see how things can come apart is one of the biggest lessons that I'm taking away. 

Sarah: [00:07:16] Well, all the times the cynics and the pessimists and the people who say no, we're going to fix this won out and it got fixed. They don't make the news. This condominium is not the only building built in Florida or other coastlines that had a major structural air while being built. There's no possible way. There were other buildings that had major structural errors, but somebody pointed them out and they got fixed and, you know, it's, it's a confluence of not just the structural foundation upon which that building was built when it was built, the error that was made but there were human decisions that made that played into this because that's [00:08:00] not the only building that had that type of error. 

There's something about building I think that when you're young, you think it's like, Math, like they just plug in the numbers and they put up the walls and the older I get and the more experience I have in my own home and other projects you realize like, no, it's an art form and there's all kinds of decisions made along the way and particularly made as the building has maintained, the pace of maintenance, the intensity of maintenance, the sort of the breadth, how far are we going to go? Are we going to do the gold level maintenance? Are we going to do the bronze level maintenance based on what's available at the time, as far as resources and financing and you know, all those different decisions add up and I'm sure that we'll be pulling apart that timeline and piecing apart what happened in Surfside for years.

Beth: [00:08:55] And it's just a reminder that even well constructed and well-maintained [00:09:00] structures don't last forever. Hmm. I just walked with my dad through my grandmother's house, which is over a hundred years old and which no one has lived in for more than five years and the floors are sinking in and when you step into the house, you can see it and when you step onto those floors, you can feel it and it's such a weird thing. 

This place that was so special to me growing up that seemed like everything right with the world was contained in my grandmother's house and so seeing the physical structure of the house really collapsing was pretty devastating for me, but it's also just a reminder that like, we have to be willing to let some of those things that mean a lot to us go in the process of upgrading, to be sure that we're building things for the future that are going to be as solid as possible. As I took in this news, I couldn't stop thinking about buying grandmother's house because it's not only terrifying to think about what happened to these folks, but these are homes, you know, I'm just [00:10:00] really sad about 

Sarah: [00:10:00] it. That's why I'm truly just torn apart for these people because the time at which the building collapsed could not have been worse. The way in which the building collapse could not have been worse. The fact that these families are waiting and waiting for any glimmer of hope as one day after another stacks up with nobody rescued is just so brutal and it's in this building was such a cross section, much like all of Miami of humanity, right? You have people from Israel, you have people from central America, you know, older generations, people with kids and I just think as these, you know, there's still over 150 people missing and as you know, their names come out and their ages come out and their stories come out, it's just this brutal [00:11:00] slow moving tragedy from these excruciating seconds when everything changed for those people and their families. 

Beth: [00:11:09] A brutal, slow moving tragedy is unfortunately a very apt way to move into the next thing we wanted to talk about, which is the finding of at least 751 unmarked graves at a residential school in Canada. This is not our first story out of Canada, learning of children and their burial at boarding schools set up mostly through the Catholic church and the state. There was a program, if you're unfamiliar with these stories, by which the Canadian government sought to assimilate Indigenous people and it resulted in children being forced into boarding schools where disease was rampant, as was physical abuse, emotional abuse, and sexual abuse.

 In [00:12:00] 2008, a national truth and reconciliation commission was established as part of Canada's official apology to Indigenous people and really at the urging of Indigenous people in Canada, there was just an outcry for these stories to be told and for the facts to come out, because like so many awful things that have happened in history to marginalized communities, not only did the horrific things happen, but then everyone was told that they didn't and so there was this outcry from Indigenous people and the Canadian government responded with this commission and the commission is doing its work and finding just horrific information in the process.

Sarah: [00:12:40] Yeah, this particular school, the Maryville Indian residential school was operated from the, by the Catholic church from 1899 to 1997, almost 100 years. They estimate over 6,000 children died at the school due to abuse or neglect and it's just, you know, it [00:13:00] didn't just happen in Canada. This was a mark of colonial governance across the globe, the United States, Australia. There's a really, really amazing film called Rabbit Proof Fence about these schools in Australia and just the abuse and neglect that Indigenous children suffered under across the globe for almost 100 years. At one school, one school we're talking about 751 unmarked graves one and there were schools everywhere. There were schools everywhere where children were suffering and it's just, it is hard. 

It is hard to face this history. It is hard as a person who's not Indigenous. I cannot fathom, I can not fathom what the Cowessess first nation is going through, what people all across the globe, Indigenous people [00:14:00] all across the globe go through as we unearth this history that they've known about the entire time. That they've carried the heartbreak and the suffering in their very cells over years and years and decades and decades and, you know, I am glad that the Canadian government is doing this, even if it was because Indigenous people forced their hand and I would like to see more acceptance and more action from the Catholic church to face this horrific history, because I'll tell you what, across the globe, a lot of these schools were run by the Catholic church.

Beth: [00:14:34] The secretary of the interior, Deb Holland in the United States last week announced an initiative to start searching the grounds of federal boarding schools in the U S because as you just said, Sarah, we know that this wasn't limited to Canada at all. It probably wasn't limited to schools run by the Catholic church. Um, there's a lot of history that needs to be faced here. It's going to be heartbreaking to grapple with and also it's really important to validate [00:15:00] the stories that Indigenous people have been telling us for a long time and these stories are so upsetting. 

You know, I was reading in New York times article that said, There are people who frequently talked about young girls in these schools being impregnated by church officials and the infants being incinerated. I mean, it's awful, it's awful and you know what I can't stop thinking about as I read about these stories is just what it must be like to be part of a tribal nation or a person whose ancestors were enslaved and watch the fights that we're having in our politics right now, watch somebody like Dan Crenshaw talking about an Olympic athlete who turned away from the flag, or to listen to the conversations about critical race theory, and to just see that we haven't learned anything, you know, and that [00:16:00] we continue to insist on this version of ourselves as heroic and noble and unimpeachable when the truth is right here in front of us and the truth doesn't mean that we are condemned forever to behave as our ancestors behaved. The truth is there to free us of that history, right and to welcome us into a world that is so much more loving. It just embarrasses me, our current discourse side-by-side with these revelations, it just makes me feel so ashamed.

Sarah: [00:16:36] Um, as is often the case, some of this difficult history is really, really hard to wrap your arms around and understand and I always find fiction to be one of the best ways to do that. You know, we put This Tender Land in our box last quarter, cause I read it last year and I thought it did such a brilliant job of telling the story, [00:17:00] one small story, one small part of these Indigenous schools and the histories there. So I highly recommend you check out that book if you haven't, if you want to learn more about this history, if you want to hear stories about what happened in so many parts of the world to Indigenous children. 

Beth: [00:17:18] So a lot of heartbreak and a lot of grief this morning, we also have some really hopeful news.

Sarah: [00:17:24] I am so excited. The New York times is reporting this morning that there's new research showing that the Pfizer and Madonna vaccine, the immunity from those vaccines could last years. If you've had COVID and you got the vaccine, they say it could last a lifetime. Beth, can you please tell the people? Cause I did not document this on the show, but you heard me say what two months ago, three months ago that this would be the case. Please tell the people. 

Beth: [00:17:52] Sarah has been on point with her optimism. I have been praising the pessimists this morning, but I'm also going to praise the optimist because Sarah [00:18:00] has been on point with her optimism from the beginning. I remember her telling me that my parents probably had excellent immunity from getting COVID that would last for quite some time. I remember her saying that she thinks the vaccine's protection will last much longer than anyone was talking about and so kudos to you, Sarah. Thank you and your belief and faith in the sciences.

Sarah: [00:18:23] You know what I was thinking about this morning? Because while I would like it to be just about me being like super smart, let's be honest. I'm not like I'm not a scientist. I think I'm smart, but I'm not a scientist. I honestly think some of my optimism comes with my obsession with history and I just think my like history spidey sense went up because I've read a lot about these moments in history, where science changes things, right? Where science, all of a sudden everything is different and I've read enough about it that I feel like I could recognize it and that just from the second this technology came out, I thought [00:19:00] it wasn't the second it came out. 

I knew about MRNA, results from Pfizer came out. I thought, okay. When Moderna's results came out and they were 90%, that's when I was like, this is it. Everything is different now. You know, I'm in the gut triad on the Enneagram. So my gut was just like, and my history, spidey senses, everything was like, this is different and so I just. I'm not saying everybody should have taken my advice that was not founded in actual scientific studies at that point in time, I just feel really good that I was right. I wanted to be right, right. It's good. This is very, very, very, very good news. Again, I need them to get this MRNA situation for the flu vaccine and then we'll all really be ready to party.

Beth: [00:19:41] I think you're right that things are different now and that we're going to see vaccination against just a host of issues and not just vaccination, but treatment for previously untreatable or treatable only in really grueling ways. Um, so I'm super excited and that is not your only [00:20:00] positive medical news this week. 

Sarah: [00:20:01] No, because we are truly, this is another one where I'm like, the history is going to show this was the moment where things were changing. Do you remember when we talked to Susan Paige about Nancy Pelosi and we talked about how her brother who died really missed that moment in history. Like the science was out there, but it wasn't right quite to the masses yet. I believe that is where we are with CRISPR. So if you do not know what CRISPR is, it is a gene editor. It gives science test the ability to edit our actual genes. So the, the possibilities with that with genetic conditions is like endless, right but the problem was they were having to like slice the DNA tissues, insert like using basically like little, 10 and 10 and molecular scissors and get the CRISPR in there. Well, that's hard. That's difficult to do. 

Well, now researchers have been able to inject CRISPR into the blood, just into the blood of people, born with a disease. This was a, I listened to a guy. Um, I think he was in Scotland or Ireland [00:21:00] and it was passed down and it just, it started basically just breaking down your body, this particular genetic condition. He couldn't walk his dog. They inserted the CRISPR into his blood and now like three of these people who volunteered for this trial that their body says shut off production of that particular toxic protein altogether and so they're better. It's amazing. It's a miracle. So like, I just feel like we're seeing with CRISPR, like it's there, we see that it's going to change everything. It's not available to the masses yet, but it's going to happen and it's going to be a game changer.

Beth: [00:21:31] I love all of this and what I would like to propose alongside it is a program across the United States where every adult takes an ethics class, because I think that as we have these amazing medical developments, our reactions are either going to be jubilation without questions, which I understand and I am grateful for these advancements as well or fear, and I think what we really need is to chart a path [00:22:00] where we start to speak the language of ethics, kind of consistently across our society. This is another learning for me from COVID-19. A lot of the questions that COVID presented, we could not resolve with what we knew as a society and so instead we went to fear in one corner or another right. Fear of something and so I think we just, we really need a robust discussion of, of ethics, not to all agree on how we use these technologies or when they're appropriate, but to speak a common language about what we're trying to do and how we prioritize it.

Sarah: [00:22:37] Don't get it twisted. This is powerful technology and powerful technologies can also be dangerous. I really, really wish. I don't know. Maybe I should write, if I had senators, I would actually listen, I would try this. Maybe Rand Paul would listen. I really wish that we would learn from our mistakes with reproductive technologies, which we just treated like the wild, wild west through the doors wide open and said, do what you will and now we have people out there with like [00:23:00] 125 half siblings. I really wish we would take the European approach.

 That we would have like ethics commissions, that would have medical ethicists, that would have philosophers, that would have religious figures on them so that that could come and tackle these questions and put some guidelines and regulations in place because letting this run wild is not going to be awesome. That's my, also my gut instinct, historical insights, spidey-sense whatever you want to call it. I really wish that we would not and I'm not hopeful. That's not really the American way. We really liked the doors wide open, but it is a very, very powerful technology and we are going to have to think carefully and I don't want this to just tear us apart culturally. I wish we'd have some leadership at the medical ethical level, but we'll see what happens. 

Beth: [00:23:48] Cause conversations driven by fear or also a not awesome way to do any kind of problem solving. We've spent a lot of time on the past and the future in this segment so let's dive [00:24:00] into the present now. We're going to be sharing our conversation with Paul Krugman. Paul is a Nobel prize, winning economist and author and an op-ed columnist for the New York Times. He has been called the McJagger of political and economic punditry so he seemed like the right person to sit down and discuss what is going on with our economy and try to answer some questions that we hear from you often.

Well, I would love to start off by asking you, your recent writing for the New York times seems to me that you are pessimistic about American democracy while being optimistic about our economy. Is that a fair characterization?

Paul Krugman: [00:24:48] Uh, yeah, at least for the near term. I think things are looking up, pandemic is receding. We have what looked like pretty good economic [00:25:00] policies in place for the near term and possibly longer on, but, uh, you know, we're democracy is very much sitting on a knife edge. At the moment.

Sarah: [00:25:11] We receive a lot of listener mail where people have anxiety and are not as optimistic about the economy and have a lot of concerns in particular about inflation. I feel like that's one of your zombies, you touched on in the book and in recent columns that the ideas that just won't die. So tell us why you don't have as many concerns about inflation. 

Paul Krugman: [00:25:31] Okay. I mean, the, the basic fact is that inflation doesn't just come out of nowhere. Uh, to get any kind of sustained inflation, you either have to have an economy that is really running hot for an extended period of time, or you have to have a real shortage of, of stuff. So you get inflation if there's a war in the middle east that cuts off the oil supply, uh, or more likely you can [00:26:00] have an inflation if they have a country is printing money to pay its bills. Uh, we don't have any of that stuff. The US economy is actually still has quite a few unemployed workers. There are some shortages of stuff. Uh, the saw mills guessed wrong about how much building people are going to be doing so lumber prices are up and that sort of thing, but none of the conditions that lead to major inflation problems are out there. 

Everything that you see right now is just really, I've actually been working on this. If, think of it. It's, it's like when you're at a stop light and you hit the accelerator, you know, full on the minute, the light changes and for a second or so your, your wheels don't get traction. So you got a little bit of a, a wheel spin, a little bit of a skid because it takes a, you can't go from zero to 60 in half a second, but that's really all it is. There's nothing in there pointing to a bigger, longer term inflation problem. 

Beth: [00:26:56] I struggle in understanding our economic [00:27:00] expectations, because it seems that we are always looking for more and more growth but as soon as we start to put programs in place to facilitate that growth, we suddenly turn to the idea that the economy is going to be overheated. So I wonder if you could give us a working understanding of what an overheated economy would look like and why that's a bad thing. 

Paul Krugman: [00:27:19] Look, we know that you can't have literally full employment in the sense that there is nobody out there who is looking for a job and hasn't yet found one that they're willing to take. Uh, there's always going to be some friction out there and historically we've never, except in the middle of a war with all kinds of controls on, we've never gotten none measure our unemployment below, you know, around 2% and in fact, we do start to see what looks like inflation accelerating, once we get to inflation two to one employment, that's a little bit about that so it is possible.

  The US economy in [00:28:00] 1968, when Lyndon Johnson was fighting the Vietnam war and the fed was keeping interest rates low and, uh, there, that was an economy that was running too hot, right and prices, you know, people were raising prices because they could, and then they still were raising prices because they saw other people raising prices and it kind of turned into a self fulfilling spiral so that's something that can happen, but it hasn't happened in America for a really long time. So you ask why is it an overheated economy look like? I perfectly well understand that if you're, you know, unless you're pretty much my age, you've never seen anything that really felt like an overheated economy.

So, um, it's, it's something we know has happened in the past. Uh, you know, it happened in during the Vietnam war, happened during the Korean war. There was a little bit of a pattern there of course tends to happen during wars, but it's not, it's nothing that it's not something that you've can dismiss as something to be concerned about, but [00:29:00] it's also not something that is, something always should be on your mind as it's going to happen next week. 

Sarah: [00:29:06] How much of this is generational? When we talk about these ideas that that just won't die or outlooks that, you know, despite a lack of evidence continue to be perpetuated out in the media and other places are defined by these like generational moments that were very impactful on one generation, but seem very confusing to another generation. You know, I think about the conversation surrounding modern monetary theory and the idea around deficits and that, you know, since I was born in 1981, there's this idea that, you know, deficits are terrible and we need to balance the budget, even though, and that, like, if we continue to run a deficit, it'll just be terrible for the country and we all should like Dave Ramsey, our way into no more debt at the United States government. Whereas, I mean, I'm about to turn 40, we've run a deficit for most of my lifetime. I haven't seen the consequences that have been [00:30:00] warned against over and over again. How much of that do you think is just the generational impact on the, of the late seventies versus generations that weren't alive during the seventies too, to sort of have those fear?

Paul Krugman: [00:30:11] Well on the one hand, yeah, generations matter. It's been actually documented. You can look at, uh, at members of the federal reserve board and those who sort of came to professional maturity during the seventies, tend to be a whole lot more worried about inflation than those who are a bit younger than that so there's some of that. On the depths it's though that actually doesn't, that doesn't compute it doesn't actually work because whatever, what happened in seventies, it really wasn't about deficits. We didn't have a deficit problem during the seventies. The inflation had much more to do with things like shocks to the supply of oil and, and maybe a loose monetary policy, but it really wasn't at all about budget deficits.

Um, and there's something that I actually go on about quite a lot. Just the way that [00:31:00] certain things get embedded in how people remember history or at least how they think they remember history that may have not very little to do with reality. So lots of people think that the seventies was all about big government and overspending there's actually no evidence at all, but that was the problem. There were some real problems in the seventies, but had nothing to do with that. Look at other countries like Germany. Everybody in Germany remembers the things they remember that they've been taught about the great hyperinflation of 1923. Um, almost nobody in Germany has been talked about the great deflation of 1930, 31, which is, and it was the deflation, not the inflation that brought you, you know, who the power is so there's a lot of selectivity in what people choose to emphasize and often with a political and ideological slant throughout. 

Beth: [00:31:51] Picking up on that thread, when you talk about the inflation in the 1970s, and you mentioned some of the conditions that gave rise to it, is there a [00:32:00] reasonable comparison to a major investment in infrastructure, for example, and the conditions that brought us inflation in the seventies?

Paul Krugman: [00:32:08] I don't think there's a close parallel there. I mean, one thing that did happen in the seventies is that the growth engine of the economy productivity, rising output per worker hour kind of stalled out, um, for reasons that remain deeply obscure. I mean, nobody really knows what caused that and, um, and nobody really knows why we had a productivity burst from the late nineties to the middle of the two thousands, which then went away again and we're, we're back in an era of productivity growth now, which is funny because there's all this technological hype.

 Everybody talks technology, we all have a fancy gadgets, but it doesn't actually seem to be doing very much for the economy, but that [00:33:00] was true in the seventies also. So I don't think now where the infrastructure comes in is simply that that is one of the things that might make us more productive, might help us produce more stuff, uh, over time which uh, th the main reason to do that is so that you can produce more stuff, but it also helps to bring inflation down. Um, and I'd say even more important is, uh, in investing in people, especially childcare, child nutrition, child health. Uh, those are things that will pay off a lot, but it takes a couple of decades for that to happen but, you know, the seventies, I, I complained about the tyranny of the seventies over, over our, over our imagination. 

People are people talk about the seventies as if it was the worst time ever, and don't want to, you know, there've been a lot of bad times. The, uh, uh, the recession of the early eighties was really terrible and the years that followed the financial prices in 2008 were much [00:34:00] worse for most Americans than the seventies ever were so, uh, it, it tells you something about really something more about our politics than about economic reality that we go on so much about the evils of the 1970s. 

Sarah: [00:34:12] That's my next question is back to your first point about you're optimistic about the economic growth, but pessimistic about the state of our democracy, I wonder, is there a connection to be drawn between the collapse of trust in our institutions that you see in the seventies and that lack of trust that we see today? And as an economist who, you know, has written about this lack of trust in this, the fear you have for the future of our democracy, looking at the economy as so much about data and measurement, and then you have these moments where you're like, we don't, we can't really measure exactly why this happened, how do you then connect the stuff that's hard to measure, like the lack of trust or the mood of the country, which I don't really think there's ever one mood, but those sort of [00:35:00] amorphous conditions that are just as essential, I think, as employment or inflation? 

Paul Krugman: [00:35:07] There was some connection between reality and people's  perception .So it's not as, as straightforward and linear as we'd like, but I certainly one thing that has changed. One thing that began to change in the seventies is that we became a much, much more unequal country and, you know, in the seventies, uh, circa 1970, the CEO of a major corporation was probably paid about 20 times as much as the average worker in that company. Now it's more like 200 times. That's a means that we're not a society in the same way we were, that probably contributes in a variety of, of indirect ways to lack of trust. It's also just true. I'd make it probably, I think one way that it contributes by the way, is that big moneycorrupts, not just literally corrupt politics through campaign contributions and all of that, but, [00:36:00] but also correct corrupts the, uh, the marketplace of ideas.

There's a, if you ask, why do the zombie ideas that I write about, uh, persist, many of them persist because people are basically being paid to keep those zombie ideas alive. I mean, if there, there is zero evidence that cutting tax rates on rich people does great things for the economy. So why are there so many people who are basically professional advocates of tax cuts for rich people? Well, that's not a hard question to answer, right? Uh it's uh, it's the old up in St. Claire line. It, it's difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on not understanding it and, um, so the, I think the rising of the quality contributes, but also who knows. Things happen. I mean, I think we have to admit that we don't fully understand where all of this rage and all of this, uh, hostility to, to the, to an open society is coming from, but it's there and it's clearly, it's, it's terrifying.

Beth: [00:36:57] I struggled to think about how as just a [00:37:00] citizen, not someone who's responsible for economic policy or for influencing people responsible for economic policy, how do I adopt that posture of humility, we don't understand some of this, listen to experts who hopefully also, you know, give us that caveat and know how to think about what policies to support or not support when I realized that much of my political preference until very recently was built on a, a pretty bad foundation in terms of taking in those messages that people are paid to disseminate. Um, so how would you counsel citizens to develop some understanding of economic policy sufficient to, to vote for good policies?

Paul Krugman: [00:37:45] Okay. I think, look, I can tell you what I do. I have opinions on lots of stuff where I'm not an expert and I try to do more than just say, okay, here's an authority figure. I'll listen to that person because they're an authority figure and of course, I'm [00:38:00] sort of professionally required as a columnist to occasionally on pine on things that are not especially my field of expertise but part of the answer is that you, you try to listen to people who sound like they're serious about trying to get at the truth. So I don't, you know, I don't know anything about epidemiology per se. I don't really have the time to become an expert on it, but I can certainly tell the difference between people who sound like they are looking at the evidence, trying to reach a conclusion or not predetermining their conclusion based upon their politics and people who are just spouting a party line. 

I don't think that's very hard to figure out just from, from reading the newspapers and so you really want to look and say, okay, who sounds like they are actually trying to get at the truth here? And if they disagree, well, that's going to be hard. There, if we want to ask a question, something like, [00:39:00] okay, yeah, there's a, there are some debates about the technical aspects of monetary policy and sometimes people debate those things in the pages of the newspapers and I have to say, guys, this is not helpful. Uh, they, they, the average reader of a good newspaper, even the elite readers with newspaper, can't tell which of you two guys who both sound serious as right on this issue. This is not the forum to have that argument, but on many things, on questions like should, should you wear a mask during a pandemic? It wasn't hard. The answers weren't necessarily right but it wasn't hard to figure out who was actually serious about this and he was just going with, with an ideology or, or a politically convenient proclamation. 

Sarah: [00:39:50] Well, I'm trying to do that myself. I listen to serious people, including including you on modern monetary theory and I'm stuck in [00:40:00] that spot. I'm stuck in when I listen to one serious expert explain it, I think, and who's in favor, I think yeah, I'm s-, I'm in and then I hear you. And I think, oh, I don't know. Now I'm confused again. 

Paul Krugman: [00:40:13] The issue of modern monetary theory. I shouldn't say the problem. I had problems with it, but the issue you ask is where are the really substantive differences between someone like me and the proponents of this stuff about what we should be doing now? Am I, am I saying that we should be panicking about the deficit? Actually, no, I'm not, uh, no more than no more than the MMT people are they. Uh, the problem with MMT is not so much that they were saying outrageous things is that they're saying pretty much the same things that, that mainstream economists like me are saying, but claiming that it's still totally different and so you don't necessarily have to make a decision about whether you believe in their stuff. 

I mean, I will tell you, I don't, I don't [00:41:00] find that helpful, but that isn't really the question you should ask is what difference does it make? I think the nastiest thing I can say about the MMT people is that it sounds a lot like they're engaged in self promotion. It's not really about what it's not really about what, what we should do in terms of policy cause it's really hard to find any difference between me and I don;t know, Stephanie Kelton in terms of what our policy should be right now. It's more about than trying to say pay no attention to those guys with the, with the official credentials. We have the truth, except their truth appears to be the same thing that I'm saying.

Sarah: [00:41:31] Right. That's such a good point. Like if the, what we should do is the same, why we should do it, maybe isn't that not unimportant, but not as important

Paul Krugman: [00:41:39] Yeah, I mean, and, and so if there comes a real point where, where we're saying something, I, I it's a little. I mean, that, that has actually been an issue particularly on that front, because there just hasn't been a significant difference on policy for more than 10 years, uh, on, on, on that front. Now, [00:42:00] if you, if you wanted to have an argument between me and somebody from heritage foundation about whether we should, uh, keep corporate taxes low, uh, then there's a real policy difference and then you should, might want to ask yourself, you know, who's who seems to be serious about, about trying to, to get at the answer to that question but no, I think if someone is claiming that they have a really important theory, but the theory isn't really telling you anything different from what a lot of more conventional people are saying, then you don't necessarily have to think they're wrong, but the question is, why should you care? 

Beth: [00:42:34] So if I take the position of where I think a lot of the country is the, the debt is something serious to care about. It's also not an emergency and I'm evaluating several trillion dollars in government spending that seems like a good idea, but it also seems like an awful lot of money. What are the best questions to ask myself? 

Paul Krugman: [00:42:53] Well, first question you want to ask is, is there actually going to be any problem with [00:43:00] handling the interest on this debt? It's several trillion dollars. Sounds like a lot of money, but uh, okay what is this going to mean in terms of the government's ability to keep on paying its bills? And you look at the fact that the US government concurrently borrow long-term at an interest rate of around 1.6%, which is below the rate of inflation and say, I, why is this problem? Why, how is this supposed to be a burden on the country? And that, that is really, there really has been no, very good answer to that. People go into, into elaborate contortions to try and, and make it a problem even though, you know, if you do the math, it doesn't look like a problem. 

There is a different issue, which is one that is kind of worth taking seriously, which is that we are handing out a lot of money. It's a lot of purchasing power and the economy doesn't have infinite ability to produce stuff. So are we giving [00:44:00] people more purchasing power than the economy is capable of satisfying? So that's the overheating question and that's a, that's actually a tough one. I don't think, I don't think it's my arithmetic says we're probably okay on that front and there are easy ways to respond, but not everybody who is serious agrees and so there that's an actual debatable issue, but the actual burden of the debt. I mean, there's a lot of Dr. Evil, you know, $1 trillion, uh, sounds like a big sum of money, but it isn't really for an economy the size of the United States and especially when you can borrow it incredibly low interest rate.

Beth: [00:44:39] Is there something circular about that overheating question with infrastructure? If we're saying we don't want the economy to overheat to the point where people have money to spend, but we can't keep up with the demand to spend that money and infrastructure is the thing that gets us, perhaps to being able to meet that demand, it seems to me at some point we just have to make the leap. Am I thinking about that the right [00:45:00] way? 

Paul Krugman: [00:45:01] Mostly not, but not for a reason that maybe that's easy to miss, which is that the overheating issue, the whole thing of having a, you know, a reasonably serious argument about now is not about infrastructure. It's about, you know, there's three bills. There's the, uh, there's the American rescue plan, which is law already. There's the American jobs plan, which is the infrastructure and there's the American families plan there. I think you'll notice there's a kind of a naming convention here, but, uh, th the overheating stuff is all about the, the rescue plan, which is money that is, has already gone out the door or will be going out the door very soon and it's not infrastructure. It's, um, it's aid to families, it's aid to state and local governments. It's, uh, payments to help the unemployed, make it through the next few months, but that's going to be behind us pretty soon.

 That that's a, that's a big slug of money. That's $1.9 trillion that is going out and even [00:46:00] $1.9 trillion over the course of a year, there's a lot of money, even for the United States but the other stuff, the, so the, the, the infrastructure, the American jobs plan, that's a 10 year project where the money will go out slowly because you don't, as my grandmother, who's, uh, uh, English idioms were a little bit strange. There used to say, Rome, wasn't built overnight. Uh it's you don't get a, we're not going to be building new tunnels and bridges. Uh, and we're not even going to be doing massive repairs to the existing infrastructure uh, In a few months.  That stuff is going to be spread over a long period of time and it's also, at least as the plan now starts, a lot of it is paid for with, with higher taxes. So that's actually really not overheating is not an issue for the infrastructure spending. 

It's just a, that's a, that's a largely paid for, I would say maybe even excessively well paid for plan that is something [00:47:00] about what will happen over the next decade. It's not about what will happen and then the next year. So those are really separate issues and I guess maybe people aren't clear on that. They, they think that when Biden says we're going to, we're going to make sure that everybody has broadband, that that's part of the same discussion as, uh, and we're going to give people a bunch of work to give people $1,400 checks right now. Those are, those are quite separate issues.

Sarah: [00:47:24] I wonder if some of the, the emotion and the anxiety surrounding overheating is linked to some pretty intense developments and certainly intense media coverage surrounding cryptocurrencies and NFTs and just the speculation going on, particularly with younger generations in the stock market. I try to think of a good, like if zombies or our ideas that won't die, would a cryptocurrency be. Like, I'm trying to think of like a high energy, high risk monster and I couldn't quite think of the right metaphor for this, but I wonder if that is what's contributing to people's concerns and I hate to join the long [00:48:00] list of people asking you about cryptocurrency, but I mean, it it's just, it's taken off, especially I think in just the zeitgeists and people's awareness of it and especially if there's this thing in the news, that's around all the time that you don't understand, but seems to be important, particularly when it comes to the economy. I mean, do you think that that's contributing to the concerns about overheating and how come it's not a concern for you, at least when it comes to that?

Paul Krugman: [00:48:25] I think it's not an overheating. It, there, there is a question I would kind of having a speculative fraud out there, not just cryptocurrencies, but you know, house prices. Uh, people that the flip side I said, you know, why we don't need to worry about debt is an important part because the interest rates are very low. There just don't seem to be, I mean, interest rates being low as it turned a symptom, it's basically saying that that business is not finding a lot of good things to invest in and so there's a lot of money out there looking for a home and having a hard time finding it. They're Uh, eager to lend it to the [00:49:00] government, which is good for infrastructure, but also eager to invest in anything that you think might produce a return at that has a lot to do with all kinds of stuff.

It is the reason that that housing, house prices have been shooting up even in small towns in the middle of America and now crypto stuff. Well, if you say you don't understand what it's all about, uh, join the club. I mean, and I have a professional interest in this and I've been part of a number of what would be, um, conferences and, and, uh, and, and dinner discussions and in a different world, what eventually ended up being, I've been in multiple zoom meetings, where everybody sits in front of a screen with an alcoholic beverage of their choice next to them but the, uh, uh, but then we get crypto people to try to explain, what is this, what function is this serving? What does it do? And [00:50:00] I have yet to hear a clear answer. I mean, it's not, it's not for lack of trying and that's, uh, so it is pretty wild stuff. Uh, and of course it, and there's, by the way, the generational stuff, a lot of that is okay, boomer but the fact of the matter is I, I know, I, I know people in their thirties who are just as baffled as I am about what all of this is supposed to do.

Sarah: [00:50:21] I think that's so good though. I think that's just not our instinct to ask sort of what's the point, especially when it comes to the economy, because it feels like the weather, right? Like, well, what's the point? I mean, we understand obviously like why it rains, but you know what I mean? Like, it just feels to a certain extent beyond our control and amorphous and so it's, it's hard to train yourself to ask like, well, what what's, what's the point? What's this, what's the purpose of this?

Paul Krugman: [00:50:45] One of my basic principles you always want to think about in economics is to remember that economics, you know, there's all these numbers and data, but ultimately it's about people. If you have an economic idea, the question should always be okay, [00:51:00] what are you saying that people, what, what is your story about what people are going to do? What are people going to do with this new innovation that you're proposing? How is this going to affect how people go about their lives, how they do business and many times there is a very good answer for that. 

Um, as it happens in the cryptocurrency, what we keep on asking is, okay, so what will this thing let me do that I can't do with a credit card or with Venmo and, uh, I have yet again. I mean, it would be one thing if people were giving answers that were not persuasive, but I've never yet gotten an answer at all. So, um, so that's why, where I'm a skeptic here, but of course there it's, it's a faith. Also, the other thing is that it's one of these things that really has, even if you think it's right, there's no question a lot of the people involved in this stuff are behaving like cult members. 

Sarah: [00:51:53] Well, then I think the frothiness that makes me think it's the blob. I think that's our monster metaphor. Sort of hard to measure, [00:52:00] difficult to control and understands. I think we should go with the blob on crypto.

Paul Krugman: [00:52:05] Well, maybe, I mean, it's just, I mean, if you ask me why, why do price crashes, uh, always seem to reverse? And I think then if you want to read when prophecy fails, what happens when, when, uh, coax predictions fail to come true, they just double down. You know, where I am on that, on that stuff. 

Beth: [00:52:23] What do you think of a vision of investing more in American manufacturing? I've gotten really interested in semiconductor chips and the fact that America has, I think 12% of the global manufacturing of those chips now. Is that something that we should be making more of or has that time come and gone? 

Paul Krugman: [00:52:43] A little bit. I mean, that's me put it the is the strong economistic case is to say, look, you don't, you don't want to be, we don't want to go back to a world of national closed, national economies and [00:53:00] self-sufficiency where you produce everything for your yourself. Partly because that's inefficient, but particularly because it's really, that's a very bad world for small poor countries. I mean, if, uh, if, if, if we didn't have a world where  Bangladesh can, can sell a lot of apparel, uh, to the rest of the world, uh, Bangladesh would be in upheaven famine and catastrophe  right no .So you want to keep the world economy reasonably open. 

The question now is whether we have overstretch. I think we've seen to some extent we've seen this in the whole vaccine thing, as well as the current chip shortage that we've gotten to a world where to save a few pennies companies have had established these extremely these 10,000 mile long supply chains, uh, with many vulnerable links and so you've got to have a fire at a factory in Taiwan, and all of a sudden we're having trouble making cars here in [00:54:00] America and that's that's overreach and possibly, we, I think to some extent businesses already self-correcting on that. They're, they're, they're starting to invest more in a little bit of redundancy, a little bit more production facilities, closer to the demand, but also, uh, some, one of the, probably we're gonna have some problems with exiting from the Trump era because the Trump gave national security justifications for economic policy a really bad knee.

When you have a government that starts blocking imports of aluminum from Canada, because it threatens our national security, that makes it really hard to argue. Well, actually, but there might really be a national security argument for making sure we have a little bit more chip production than we did before. So there are, there are some real issues there, but, uh, one thing according they can remember is that even if the United States became completely self-sufficient and manufactured goods, even if we stopped improving and, uh, you know, we, if we eliminated the trade [00:55:00] deficit and manufacturers, we would not be at the manufacturing nationm we used to be, because the thing about manufacturing is it's, it's so efficient in the modern world that doesn't take a whole lot of, uh, manufacturing workers to satisfy world demand. Manufacturing employment has been declining everywhere, not just the United States. That's the, the reason we have so few manufacturing workers that basically the same reason there are so few farmers. They're just too good at what they do and we don't need that many of them.

Sarah: [00:55:29] I wonder when you said that if that's behind some of our other labor shortages and the anxiety surrounding that. Is what happened, you know, we talk about on the show all the time that COVID accelerated trends. Is that what we see now that COVID accelerated some trends with regards to other industries and employment? And that's, I know enough to know that the simplistic argument that the government [00:56:00] is putting out checks and that's why people aren't getting jobs, can't be the total story. But I wonder if you see trends there that are sort of flying under the radar that people aren't seeing when it's coming to this, the story, which is certainly provoking a lot more of that to tie back to our first question that distrust in the institution and the anger and frustration. That's certainly a narrative in my small town. 

Paul Krugman: [00:56:20] Mostly, I think it's just that, that we're trying to go from zero to 60 in a couple of seconds here. I mean, we, uh, I've been looking it's, it's been in the ear of data sources you never did before, because you're looking for very, very current data and the government, you know, monthly statistics aren't good enough these days and, um, so I'm looking at open table, uh, parents out there online restaurant reservations are, you know, clearly where things are going and at the beginning of this year, see the diners and restaurants were down 60% from pre pandemic levels. Now they're basically back to where they were in 2019. [00:57:00] It can't fill that many slots in the, in the food service industry uh, in that in a couple of months. 

You're of course you're going to have probably people have made arrangements to get by, uh, because their former jobs in the service sector disappeared for a year and a half. They're, to expect them to all be ready to go back to work you know, and instantly it's just unrealistic so there's bound to be some issues there and it it's yeah. Maybe there are a few people who are saying, okay, I don't have to rush to work because I'm getting that $300 supplement to my unemployment benefits, but that will go in a couple of months. Uh, maybe there are probably more important. There are people who say, you know, schools are still closed where I can't go to work cause I have to take care of my kids. That's of course that will also be ending pretty soon.

 I, I think most of this stuff is just sort of short term issues. [00:58:00] Now, there, there is a broader issue, which is that we have a lot of the jobs that went away during COVID were really terrible jobs who will be paid unpleasant and then they became dangerous as well and not too surprising if a fair number of people having found some way of scraping by are not eager to return to what was really a pretty miserable work experience, a miserable, poorly paid work experience and that on top of all of that, do you need to have a little bit of when you hear claims about labor shortage asks, who is saying, and what are their motivations? 

So for me, the quote of the week was the, uh, the restaurantuer who was quoted, uh, saying, you know, these days when I offer a job, the first thing people ask is how much does it pay, gosh, that's how, in a tone of outrage, how dare people actually ask how much they're going to make in this job? So that's telling you something about, uh, people, I think to some extent, employers has gotten used to, uh, having no [00:59:00] questions asked. Um, hopefully we're not going back to that.

Beth: [00:59:03] As we wrap up our time with you, I'm thinking about all of the things in this conversation that I think you've released some pressure around. I don't need to be worried about this at least right now. I wonder what you think is the most important economic trend that no one is talking about. 

Paul Krugman: [00:59:18] I think that people have not really wrapped their minds around what it means to have, uh, uh, an economy with essentially no population growth which is kind of where we're heading, not just, not just. I mean, it's already happened in Japan sometime back then Europe, and it's kind of getting there here, and that's not necessarily a bad economy, but it's going to be a different economy and economy where you don't have to be constantly building new houses and new shopping malls and new office buildings is an economy that has to find other ways of spending money and we have not really a lot of our instincts about what, [01:00:00] what economic policy should be, or even in what we should be investing our money in are based around a world in which the, you know, a lot of this, actually, this is a generational thing. Most of us, most people in positions of authority grew up in an era when baby boomers were entering the workforce, largely because they are baby boomers themselves and, uh, we're long past that now, but I don't think we've our thinking has wrapped our minds around where we are in this very, very different kind of world.

Sarah: [01:00:30] Well, it feels like those two answers are connected. You know, sustainability costs more. Maybe we could spend some of our money there. 

Paul Krugman: [01:00:35] Of course. Yeah. If there's, I mean, it's not as if having, uh, a static or even declining number of people is not inherently a bad thing. It paints a less pressure on the planet, less pressure on resources, but it does mean that you have to have different policies to make sure that, that we have full employment.

Sarah: [01:00:52] Well, we cannot thank you enough for coming on our show and helping us sort through all of these stories, creating a lot of anxiety for [01:01:00] our listeners and other Americans. This is complicated stuff and you make it sound, you know, so comprehendable, and I mean, I already feel less anxious and I know our audience will too.

Paul Krugman: [01:01:10] Okay well, if I can do some anxiety reduction, that's an economics good dead, so thank you very much.

Sarah: [01:01:15] Thank you! 

Thrilled to have Paul on the show. Beth, I think he was our first Nobel prize winner.  

Beth: [01:01:30] It was really an honor to talk with him and he was really gracious with his time and observations and kind of teaching. I learned a lot from this discussion so thank you again to Paul.

 Sarah, I think to kick off our outside of politics segment, which again is lovingly titled people being jerks, we should let Chelsea share her experience in the restaurant industry. 

Chelsea: [01:01:51] Hi, y'all. My name is Chelsea. I started working at a chain restaurant after being furloughed from my job in October. My [01:02:00] wife is currently in her last semester in school doing her clinicals five days a week. That makes it really hard for her to work full-time and do school um, but that's a different rant. I made it my task to make up my income and hers so she wouldn't have to split her focus between work and school when she's so close to the finish line. 

In my early twenties, I'd worked in restaurants before and like different catering gigs and it was all well and good, but this time was different and not just because the world felt like it was going to hell in a hand basket. In Alabama, where I live, employers can pay as little as $2.13 an hour, as long as the employee earned enough in tips to add up to the federal minimum wage of 7.25 an hour but if you don't earn at least $5.12 cents an hour in tips, your employer must make up the difference. There is nothing worse than doing all that work running around to report your types of pain at night and realize you didn't even make $5 and 12 cents an hour.

[01:03:00] The last time I worked in a restaurant, I would not leave until I made at least a hundred dollars. This time around working at that restaurant, I had to adjust my goal to $50 a shift and it wasn't because people weren't coming to the restaurant because of the pandemic. People were there. They just weren't tipping. Our patrons were very bold and comfortable risking their lives and mine for spinach dip. It all began to feel really absurd. It was normal to have people rage quit in the middle of a shift. Um, I was out for two weeks because I got COVID and when I got back, most of the front of house staff was different.

Some of my coworkers sort of made a sport out of not caring and leaving without doing their side work. My friend and fellow surfer pregnant mother of four often would stay well past close to finish all the side work. I can't imagine being 22, getting drunk at work and leaving early so a pregnant [01:04:00] mother could pick up the slack. We all had to do sexual harassment training, but let me tell you that does not stop anyone from being sexually harassed. People at the bar would tell homophobic jokes and I had a customer touch me inappropriately on two separate occasions. He told me I should smile more and that he loves beautiful b words. I was wearing a mask. How could, how could he tell if I was smiling or not?

 The customer might always be right, but a regular customer, let me tell you. A regular customer can come in, sit at the bar, be loud and obnoxious with hot political takes and thinly veiled racism, and homophobic jokes and be welcomed back the next day. There was also another time a 16 year old host said a homophobic slur and I said don't say that. I heard this story recounted to other members of the staff and they made it seem like I had told them off. I don't think I've ever told off anyone in my entire life. [01:05:00] Still, it became abundantly clear that there is a disconnect between the way that I acted in the way that I was being perceived.

Even on good days, I had tables leave me nothing, or get very pressed about seven cent of change or act like they were going to leave me a tip, but then put the money back in there in their purse as they were leaving or just right on the tip line. God bless you or bye or just, no. I want once had a table of teenagers, run me around for extra ranch, drink refills, maybe who would like a dessert actually only to gleefully run out on their $130 check.

That night, I cried while sitting on the curb and thinking I have a master's degree. I felt like I was being assaulted from all angles. My womanhood, my sexuality, my blackness, my personhood. It's one thing to be exploited, but it's entirely different from choosing it. The second I had the ability, I got the hell out of there. [01:06:00] All that to say for $2.15, the work is not worth it.

Beth: [01:06:04] Here's my reaction to Chelsea's message. What? What is wrong with everyone? This is unacceptable. 

Sarah: [01:06:12] If I channel every bit of grace I've ever had in my entire life and I look around at the way people are behaving in restaurants. Running out, not tipping, the line about people just write no on the tip line made me want to crawl out of my skin. You hear these stories about airlines, that the complaints about the way people are behaving on airlines and like people getting fined for how their act on airlines is skyrocketing.

 If I channel every bit of grace, I have, I think people who do not transform their pain will transmit it and I don't care how you felt about the pandemic. I don't care if you didn't think the pandemic was real. Everybody was in a lot of pain during 2018. Arguably since 2016 and I [01:07:00] just feel like everyone is transmitting their pain and I don't know why they have to do it to the freaking wait staff and the people who are making the least amount of money, but they're not the truth is they're not just doing that.

They're acting ugly to their kids. They're acting ugly to their family. Like everybody's just one big, giant raw nerve, especially because of, I think what Paul Krugman talks about. Like we're squealing out. Like everything, you know, Julia Edelstein talked about this on our show a few weeks ago, everything opened up and took off way faster and it's like, everybody's acting like toddlers who the schedule got changed on and nobody asked them permission beforehand. 

Beth: [01:07:40] And listen, I feel that way. I feel like a toddler that the schedule got changed on a no one asked me for permission beforehand. I also keep thinking about the fact that just in the United States, we are carrying on. We are a roaring out of the pandemic economy missing 600,000 people [01:08:00] and when you talk about a shortage of the labor supply, when you talk about people behaving badly, I don't think we can miss the fact that we're missing 600,000 people and that is going to be with us for a very long time.

We, we can't move beyond the deaths of 600,000 people. Even if we were able to conclusively say that the book on COVID-19 is closed, which it is not yet, we are not to that vaccination mark that we need to achieve. We have variants out there. There are still places in the United States where transmission is a concern, but even if we were able to really close that book, losing 600,000 people is culturally transformative in such a short period of time.

Sarah: [01:08:47] Yeah, I think everybody's suffering from that loss, whether they know it or not and look, I can sit in judgment. I tip very well. I tip at about twice the rate I did before the pandemic on [01:09:00] purpose, because I know the people doing these jobs, like didn't get income for a long time. I was assuming apparently rightly so that people, that a lot of people just weren't tipping because I told my husband this weekend, I bet some of that is they're telling themselves the prices are higher and so the wait staff are going to suffer because the prices are higher and the wait staff are suffering and I realized that and so I do my level best, but you know, where I see my jerkishness suffering, thought about this this morning, because one of the newsletters I read was talking about the difference in the infection rates now in vaccinated and not vaccinated areas.

And you know, people on my side of the aisle spent a year saying, how could you be so cold hearted? How could you not care enough to wear a mask? How could you not care that people are getting this disease and dying? What's wrong with you? I don't know how to teach you how to care. You know, all that whole entire narrative and much of it was true. There was a lot of cold hearted, selfish behavior coming [01:10:00] from people who didn't believe in COVID, who didn't want to respond appropriately to COVID, who felt like their freedoms and liberties were being limited. 

But now when I read about that community suffering from high infection rates because of low vaccination, I feel real cold hearted streak coming up in myself and I thought, oh man, you're doing it. Like I was reading it and I thought that's on you. You're not getting vaccinated. You know, like I could feel a very, like brushing off, turning away, closing my heart down, being like, I don't care. I don't care if you're getting COVID and dying because you didn't get the vaccine and I thought that's not who I want to be either. Like, isn't that just the, a different side of the same coin. 

Like I can get myself in those spaces and I just, I try to catch it right. Because I don't want to be like that and it's really, really hard, especially when some of those, you know, some of the people in your head, like sort of the, the composite character you've created in your head for that community are the [01:11:00] ones being ugly and are the ones acting selfishly or, you know, whatever and I'm just trying not to close my heart completely and turn away from their humanity because I know it will affect my own humanity. 

Beth: [01:11:14] I think it's really hard to avoid that judgment right now. I have it for people on the road. Like I see a lot of short-tempered driving habits, taking place around me right now, and I have no tolerance for that whatsoever. It is very important to me that we all try with a lot of consideration for each other and so when I see somebody, you know, someone like my husband who likes to teach other driver's lessons. I don't know. I don't like that at all. 

Sarah: [01:11:39] Did you show him that story in California where that child got shot and killed?

Beth: [01:11:42] I talk about those things a lot and I also it's kind of come from a place of, you know, car accidents have been very significant in my life and so I, uh, I have no patience for that, but I've really been trying to say like, Beth, you don't know what that person is carrying around as they drive. You don't know where they're going or why. [01:12:00] You don't know what's in their head. You don't know what story they're telling themselves while they're behind the wheel. I'm trying so hard to bring a little bit of extra kindness to everything, because I know that I feel not okay right now and my life was as okay as a pandemic life gets. Right. Um, short of being the kind of person who has access to a private island or something.

I had a very gentle run through COVID-19 compared to so many other people and I feel like a fragile mess and so I'm trying so hard to remember that about everybody around me and it feels to me like a moment, you know, you, Sarah, just read this book where you kept talking about the idea of our covenant with one another and then yesterday my pastor preached a whole sermon on covenants and how we watch over each other and how we respect boundaries between each other and so I keep thinking about like, what [01:13:00] is the civic covenant that would be helpful to a moment when people are writing no on the tip line and behaving so badly on an airplane that they get fined? I don't have good words for that yet, but that's the question that I keep marinating on my mind.

Sarah: [01:13:14] Well, and I think pragmatically, let's be honest. What I think about is it's not just about our civic covenant, but it's also about our true safety, because the reality is that people aren't just acting ugly. The reality is that during the pandemic so many more guns were purchased. There are so many more guns on top of what was already a huge pile of guns and I think about that. I think about, I'm not going to confront somebody. I, you know, our fair came through and I thought, I'm not going to the fair this year. No, I think that everybody's just a little hyped up.

We've had several shootings in Paducah and I'm like, no, I'm not, that's not play some pool go to this year. You know, I just think that it's the heat. It's the summer. It's coming out of [01:14:00] the pandemic. It's the pain and the grief and the trauma from the pandemic and it's all this like sort of toxic stew and I think, the best we can do through the vision of a covenant is not add to it, right. You know, I saw this woman flipping out on an airport and somebody was filming her and then somebody was like taunting her and I'm like, why, why, you know, why, why add to her anger and frustrations? It's not a show. This is not a reality show. These are our fellow citizens. 

Even if you're just filming it from afar, you're, you're soaking up that energy and so in the, in any way possible in any way possible, even if it's just to silently close your eyes and meditate on peace and love and send it their way, not to like be woowoo, like, but to just to pile on or to treat it as some sort of entertainment, like it's just making it worse. We have to exhibit as much calm and peace and love for our own safety and [01:15:00] protection and for the good of this community that we all live in together. 

Beth: [01:15:03] And I think it's really important to resist sort of easy certainty about why things are happening as they are. I cannot pretend to understand why violent crime is up. I think it's a whole lot of things. I cannot pretend to understand why it is so common to see restaurants and stores with signs saying we don't have enough help so we've had to close during these hours or the dining room is closed. I think there is just a lot going on. I personally see so many people in my life taking new jobs that it tells me there is a current moving that people have spent a lot of time thinking about what's important to them, what they're willing to sacrifice, what they are not willing to sacrifice any longer.

I just think that we are sitting as a whole lot of transcendent forces are moving around us and our reaction to that [01:16:00] is probably going to be, to grab as much control as possible and I think that's the opposite of the reaction that we need to have and I don't know how to kind of abide with everyone through a lot of legitimate anger. I've been struggling with this in my parenting. I really want to teach my girls to have a healthy relationship with anger because I somehow, and I can't pinpoint why, learned to suppress it my entire life and I don't want that for them, but they also like hurt themselves when they're mad, you know? And I'm trying to figure out how to say you can be mad without hurting yourselves and it seems like that's the lesson that America needs right now. You can be mad without hurting yourself

Sarah: [01:16:39] or others

Beth: [01:16:40] and others and I don't, I don't know how we get there. 

Sarah: [01:16:43] Well, I at least feel better that there's some leadership, right? I at least feel better that there's not someone leading our government who lanes all the way into his eid. I'll be honest about that. It makes me feel a lot better to see someone going to church [01:17:00] regularly, to see somebody who's like clearly pondering their role in something greater than the next election cycle. That brings me a lot of peace and comfort and I think finding, you know, finding those people in your lives, being that person and other people's lives, who are saying, I just see a lot of pain out there right now, and I'm not trying to add to it. I mean, sometimes that's all we can do. 

Beth: [01:17:20] Well, we see a lot of pain out there right now and are not trying to add to it and we appreciate you being here with us as we try to think about that pain. Not turn away from it either. Just not add to it. We are so glad that you spent this time with us. We'll be back here with you on Friday. Until then have the best week available to you.

Beth: Pantsuit Politics is produced by Studio D Podcast Production.  

Alise Napp is our managing director.

Sarah: Megan Hart is our community engagement manager. Dante Lima is the composer and performer of our theme music. 

Beth: Our show is listener supported. Special thanks to our executive producers. 

Executive Producers (Read their own names):  Martha Bronitsky, Linda Daniel, Ali Edwards, Janice Elliot, Sarah Greepup, Julie Haller, Helen Handley, Tiffany Hassler, Barry Kaufman, Molly Kohrs.

The Kriebs, Laurie LaDow, Lilly McClure, David McWilliams, Jared Minson, Emily Neesley, Danny Ozment, The Pentons, Tawni Peterson, Tracy Puthoff, Sarah Ralph, Jeremy Sequoia, Karin True.

Beth: Amy Whited, Joshua Allen, Morgan McHugh, Nichole Berklas, Paula Bremer and Tim Miller

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