2020 Senate Races To Watch

2020+Senate+Races+To+Watch.jpg

Topics Discussed:

  • Hurricane Laura

  • Portland Shooting & Escalating Political Tensions

  • Are We Still Bipartisan?

  • Covid-19 Wastewater Testing

  • 2020 Senate Races to Watch

  • Outside of Politics

Thank you for being a part of our community! We couldn't do what we do without you. To become a tangible supporter of the show, please visit our Patreon page, purchase a copy of our book, I Think You're Wrong (But I'm Listening), or share the word about our work in your own circles. Follow us on Instagram, Twitter, and Facebook for daily news briefs, GIF news threads, and our real time reactions to breaking news.

Episode Resources:

Covid at College:

Colleges are attempting to control partying by taking steep disciplinary measures against students who gather, Erica Pandey writes (Axios):

  • Northeastern sent warnings (NBC Boston) to 115 freshmen who said in an Instagram poll that they plan to party. The university went as far as to threaten to rescind admissions.

  • Purdue (Journal & Courier) and Syracuse (CNN) have both suspended students who have been caught partying, and UConn (Inside Higher Ed) has evicted them.

But universities that are reopening without substantive testing and tracing strategies can't just point fingers at the students, experts say.

  • "It’s irresponsible and the outcome is predictable, and blaming the students is just misplaced," says Joshua Salomon, a professor of medicine at Stanford.

Some plans do seem to be working:

  • Public health experts say the best way to prevent infections on campuses from turning into outbreaks is to test every student every few days.

  • The University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign is doing just that, and conducted 17,000 tests (Chicago Tribune) on the first day of classes alone. "Everybody's watching U of I right now," Salomon says.

Senate Races:

Transcript:

Beth: [00:00:00] Thank you all for joining us for another episode of Pantsuit Politics, we have a lot to talk about today and we will get through all of the news that unfolded over the weekend. In our first segment, we're going to spend the main segment on key Senate races to watch, and just the general state of the down-ballot Senate races on Patreon for our nightly nuance.

Folks, I am going to be going through some key congressional races in the house. So you'll get the Senate here, the house over on Patreon. And we'll continue to talk about down-ballot races. We want to make sure that not all of the oxygen is absorbed by the presidential race because there is a lot of important stuff on the ballot this year.

And we will end as we always do, with what's going on outside of politics for us. 

Sarah: [00:00:45] Before we get started, we wanted to mention, of course, our friends and neighbors and fellow citizens on the coast of Texas and Louisiana still suffering the aftermath of hurricane Laura, there are still hundreds of thousands of people without power.

I read in the news this morning that many people are dying from carbon monoxide poisoning because they're trying to put the generators in their homes. They're supposed to be outside. So it's just, you know, it creates all these complexities and risks. And if you want to help, we put a link in the show notes for how to donate time, food, money to help the people on the coast.

Beth: [00:01:29] The new cycle was absorbed over the weekend with Portland, Oregon, and this parade of Trump supporters coming into town, some kind of clash between demonstrators and counter-demonstrators that resulted in the death of a man. We don't know much at all about that death. And there are lots of things coming out like slowly.

People who have watched a video many times trying to identify where the shot came from. Some information as we're sitting down to record on Monday morning, that the person who is suspected of being the shooter identifies himself as part of Antifa and antifascist some information that the victim was part of a far, right.

So we know that there was a political clash that was in the death of a person in Portland. As we had a death of two people from political clashes in Kenosha, Wisconsin last week. In discussion about what to do about all of this, we have mayors and governors saying to the president, please don't come here. That won't be helpful. The president insisting on making a trip to Kenosha. Anyway, it is a mess right now. And I don't really know Sarah, how to observe this with an eye toward really solid factual reporting and how much that even matters versus just understanding the big picture of what's going on in the United States as escalating political tension that is resulting in violence. 

Sarah: [00:03:03] Well, there's a couple of things that really bothered me about this. First, the presence of the caravan itself to me, a caravan is an escalation. When you have peaceful protestors, on the ground, or let's just assume even that you do not believe these protestors to be peaceful, that you believe these protesters to be a threat.

These are still protesters on the ground, just as walkers, as human beings. So to me, to organize a caravan of vehicles since vehicles themselves can be weapons, as we saw in Charlottesville, that is an escalation. And that escalation is a clear reflection of the escalation and the president's rhetoric.

You know, you have the mayor of Portland saying we don't see violence like this until you call for it. We don't see this escalation. There's no condemnation of violence coming from the president. Like there is from Joe Biden. It's blame. It's tweeting law and order all caps. It's threats. I'm going to, it's not, how can I help this American city?

It's it's your fault. And I will threaten you with further action. If you don't do what I want you to do, I'm going to show up with federal troops, whether you want me there or not, like it's just this intensity of escalation that comes from him. You see it on the far right militias. And, you know, to me, it's this thing I've been thinking about that really bothers me post-convention. This idea of like, Oh, well, will his personality outweigh his policies? We really need to counter argument to his personality because the policies are what people really love. No, the personality is the policy. His personality is the policy. And nowhere, is that more clear than this scenario. His bullying, escalating violent tendencies. You saw it in 2016 with his rallies. Well, now he's president. And so the stakes are higher. It's not just encouraging his supporters to rough up. People in his rallies, Oh, well, I'll pay your lawyer bills. Or in my day, they got taken out on a stretcher. Now he's the president of the United States and we're in the middle of a pandemic and a racial reckoning.

And so the stakes when somebody's policy is to stoke violence, to stoke emotion is what we're seeing happen in Portland. Our people are losing their lives. American citizens are losing their lives and it falls squarely at his feet. In my opinion, 

Beth: [00:05:45] I'm interested to see Joe Biden address the nation about this.

I'm interested to see him do it that less from the perspective that you just shared, which I agree with, but more just from the stature that he has by virtue of having been our vice president, having been in the United States Congress for so long. I want him to just do that. The thing that a leader does in this situation and tell us what America needs to hear right now.

We so badly need that. And I don't want to wait for the election to get it from someone because I do think it matters what is said from people of stature in this time. So many women, Sarah and I've texted and talked about this a lot. So many women who are Republican leaning or have historically been Republican leaning who are white, who live in the suburbs, this portrait of the voter that gets talked about ad nauseum and every election.

So many of those women. Absolutely love Atlanta mayor, Keisha Lance Bottoms, because of her ability to step up to a microphone and say, yes, indeed, there is a problem here. The problem needs to be addressed, but also we will not burn our house down, trying to save it. Go home. Be careful stop the violence.

We're going to keep working for positive change. Let's do it. And I think that's what we need to hear from Joe Biden. And I think Joe Biden is capable of delivering it, perhaps not as effectively as Mayor Bottoms, because she has a gift for that. Right. And Michelle Obama has a gift for that kind of speech.

I think Kamala Harris could do that, but I think Joe Biden is really capable of delivering that message. He's been trying to do it in every place he has the opportunity and it's not getting a lot of media coverage. So I just want like a big Biden major event addressing the nation as though he were the president right now.

Sarah: [00:07:38] Even the, what you just said, we, aren't not going to do this. It's not just the condemning of the violence. It's that posturing that this is, we. People in Portland are Americans. The mayor of Portland is an American citizen, but the only strategy he has, the emotionally emotional response he has is to divide us.

You are the problem. You, we are Patriots. You are the enemy. And that conflict, that division, instead of saying, Hey, we all think racial justice is an issue and we might disagree how to solve it, but we are Americans and it is a shared problem. This driving us apart, the sane, your fellow Americans are your enemies is how we get to this point. It's how we got here. It's incredibly dangerous. It was dangerous at the rallies in 2016, and it's even more dangerous now that he's president and this idea that this is what quote unquote Joe Biden's America will look like, keep walking. I lived through eight years of the Obama presidency.

And it wasn't your fellow Americans are your enemy. That's not what happened. This is Trump's America. This is what it looks like when you are leading the day when you are setting the emotional tone, when you're bullying and violence and tweets and just meanness is what people are hearing. It is a call to action and people are listening and they're following that call.

I'm not gonna lie to you. It is scary. It is scary, but it is not because the democratic mayors are letting America fall apart. Take responsibility. You are the president. 

Beth: [00:09:26] I'll be honest and admit to you that for most of my life, I would have read what's going on elsewhere and said, well, that's elsewhere. It couldn't be here. Scrolling my Facebook feed, I understand that it is here. Now it might not be in the streets, but it is here. This ideology of you are with me or against me, it's us versus them. I have always believed that most Americans truly resided somewhere in the middle that most of us, if we got around a table would agree on more than we would disagree on.

I think today here in 2020, I am wrong about that. When I look at what people are posting and sharing and talking about and I don't think, I've been trying to be really discerning about this, I don't think it is the loud mouths that I'm hearing that from. I am really disturbed by what I see on social media.

From a very broad swath of people from very different places in my life and when I say you see this morning, I got so upset because the wall street journal editorial board had this statement, encouraging the president to condemn the violence, whether it's perpetrated by people who like him or not.

And I get that a lot of people in conservative circles particularly have decided that their mission in life is to speak to the president through channels and in a voice that he can understand and relate to. And they believe that that is doing a public good. And I am sure that that is where the wall street journal editorial is coming from.

We believe we are doing a public good by encouraging the president to denounce that violence, but they framed it so much in his packaging that my head almost exploded because they were talking about how Democrats and his media opponents are eager to use this violence against him. Now, first of all, I need everybody to back up with the meta analysis of who this violence helps and hurts politically.

It breaks my heart. That that's what we do now. That the first thing is not, Oh my God, this is tragic. Oh my gosh, real people are getting hurt here, but whom wonder how people will react to this in the pivot counties. But anyway, we need to stop that. And when the wall street journal says, remember you have all these enemies.

It reads, not just as a message to the president, but to regular voters, you have all these enemies. The Democrats are the enemies. The media is the enemy. Nevermind that you're reading a newspaper. The media is the enemy and we have. Got to stop that if we don't like what's happening, if we truly want to denounce it, we have to stop talking about each other this way.

And that is the president and the governors and the mayors and me and you and everybody else, we have to stop it because this road only leads to more of what we are seeing right now. The trajectory is clear.  

Sarah: [00:12:33] I read an article this weekend about how. Ministers evangelical ministers are seeing their congregations turned to Q Anon because they're not in the pews. And so because everyone is home and they're away from other humans and they can follow their impulses through the rabbit hole of the internet without a leader who they trust in their ears, pretty consistently saying we are to be instruments of peace. We are to love our neighbors as ourselves. People are like leaving their congregations, accusing their ministers, to of being instruments of Kaball the enemy of the Q Anon conspiracy.

See, and it just broke my heart and I thought. We are missing each other, like we're not connecting or not remembering our greater selves. We're not hearing that call to be better. We're letting our, truly our animal instincts thrive and I am worried and I think it is imperative. On all of us to do exactly what you're talking about to say, I don't care who was killed or who did the shooting as far as their political leanings, because that was a life that was lost and maybe their family is heartbroken and their family was attempting to pull them out of that political leaning or whatever the case may be.

You know, like there are people who are hope broken because that person is gone. And to remember that we are connected to one another. Seems so vital right 

Beth: [00:14:07] I read that article to you about Q Anon targeting evangelicals. We'll put a link to it in the show notes. And another thing I took away from it, in addition to what you said was that people don't want to hear their churches ask anything of them.

Some of these people were really distanced from their churches because their ministers were talking about matters of race and it seems to me that Q Anon doesn't ask anything of people. When church does, when society does, when a political party does, when the culture does, when you're being asked in every space of your life, re-examine things, Hey, maybe this actor or this movie, wasn't what you once thought.

We'd need to think about that. When school isn't there to fall back on and you're being asked for sacrifice every time you go to target in a tiny form, right, by wearing a mask and trying to stay away from people. I think that people are saturated. With that ask, let's be clear. The people who make up the white, suburban, people like me are saturated with sacrifice requests right now. And we've never been asked for it before. And we believe that we have. And so we're in this really weird space of groundlessness and I do think folks are grabbing onto the places that say, no, no, no, you don't need to sacrifice anything because this is all a trick.

And I don't know what to do about that, except what you said, which is to lean into each other more. And that again is a message to people like me, because I, I would never ask someone who is being active, actively oppressed by a group to help fix that group. I am convicted by Kat third piece piece on medium that we've shared a couple of times that there is no such thing as a white ally, that this is racism is our mess to clean up and we need to do it.

So, I don't know how we move forward, except by connecting to each other more. And what I see happening is the opposite everywhere. A really prominent, um, Instagram influencer writer, whatever language you want to use, posted a set of tweets that went viral and she shared it on Instagram too. And she talked about how, like, she's really ready to go.

Just cut people off because they are Trump supporters. And I read it several times because so much of what she said I thought was really important. And I also believe that she was setting a boundary that was important to her. And I am a big believer in boundary setting. And she was saying like, I make a lot of free stuff for the internet.

And what I want to tell you today is that if you are going to vote for Donald Trump, I am not making it for you. Don't roll up in here and tell me that you're just here for the design stuff. This is Gabrielle Blair. I want to be sure to credit her on this because I, there was so much good in what she shared.

And she said, I'm not making this stuff for you. If you are going to vote for Donald Trump, because I think you are making a fundamentally harmful decision. And I respected it so much. And then I also spent a lot of the weekend thinking like, how do I reconcile it? Well, my understanding of the need, especially she, as a public person, who's creating a lot of stuff for free for a lot of people and getting all of the input that comes with that.

How do I reconcile my genuine respect for this, with my genuine concern, that if. The people who follow Gabrielle Blair on Instagram, take that page into their own lives. That it continues this horrible cycle that we seem to be stuck in of disconnecting from each other and hardening and widening the gap.

Sarah: [00:17:55] We have gotten a lot of messages over the last few weeks. Basically saying, I thought you were bipartisan. I thought this was supposed to be both sides. We get pretty consistent reviews about that, but we got some really, I think, heartfelt, authentic messages on Instagram. And my answer is always, no, we changed our opening best change to party identification.

We were open and authentic about it. And there was a lot of, Oh, well, I really want to hear both sides. Which I can understand that instinct, but I was talking with a friend and along the lines of what Gabrielle Blair was saying, like, this is different. It's different. Now this is Trump and everybody from John Casick to AOC on the other side.

So the idea that we can orient ourselves and there's this, this equivalency is not true, but let me say this. You can love and set boundaries. You can be a peacemaker and call up in a moment that this moment is different and we can be uncomfortable and push people and share our values and share our no NGOs and still love and stuff.

It'll be a peacemaker. I believe that. I believe that you can be in relationship with people and lay down those boundaries like Gabrielle Blair was now the relationship between a content creator and her audience is very different between the relationship between family members. And so how you love and create boundaries is going to look very different based on that relationship.

But love. And peacemaking and political accountability and values can all coexist. Now. Sometimes they coexist inside very uncomfortable conversations, but that's okay. We can do it. We are called on to do it. And that's always true in human relationships. That's always true. Even between content creators and their audiences.

Because we're bumping up against each other. And sometimes it's only through Instagram direct messages, sometimes it's over a dinner table, but it is worth it. And it can be filled with love and accountability at the exact same time. 

Beth: [00:20:32] That's what I find. So heartbreaking about the Q Anon on church article, because church is a good place.

For that uncomfortable bumping up accountability within a relationship of love. I think that's what I struggled with in Gabrielle Blair's thread. Again, which I respected a lot is that we don't have a lot of conversations about the different kinds of relationships that exist in our lives and what we expect of each other and how we do set healthy boundaries inside those relationships.

And I think all of that is so critically important. And I will say about the, are you bi-partisan, which I. Look, I take it very personally because that's about me, right? People expect Sarah to say the things that Sarah says on the show for the most part, although she is certainly you get Sarah, you know, you're not progressive enough or whatever.

Sometimes what I will let people who listen to the show to know is that I am a human being, not a brand. And if that calculus ever changes for me, I don't deserve to do this anymore. I love everything about getting to make this podcast and getting to have a book out there in the world that shares a lot of what I believe about these important conversations.

And I would rather lose every bit of it than lie to you or make excuses for things that I find inexcusable. And I've addressed this in a lot of places in a lot of different ways. And I always try to be openhearted about it. But sometimes when I address it, I will hear back from someone who is aggravated about where I am.

Well, it sounds like you're just saying I should go somewhere else with love. I am. If what you want is to hear what the wall street journal did this morning, which is kind of, we don't like Trump's packaging, but we like what's inside it. You're not going to hear that for me because I do not like what's inside it.

I do not think that the Democrats and the media are so bad that what Trump is delivering to America is acceptable. And I do not believe that there is anything inside of the packaging of Trump that is worth everything that we are living through right now. I don't believe that. And I'm never going to come up to this microphone and lie to you, or even be unclear about that. And so that is where I stand. And again, I can say that with love and respect, I'm not mad at anybody about it, but like Gabrielle Blair, you know, I don't have the massive forum that she has, but I will say in as clear a voice as she did, like, I don't make this. So that people can tell me what they want for me.

I make it because I want to make a strong offer to the world. And I hope something good comes of it 

Sarah: [00:23:19] a long time. This last little moment, before we take a break and head into our main segment was what we called compliment the other side. It was a very popular part of the show. Obviously, because we are both registered Democrats, the wording got weird.

Not that there were never compliments to give out to people who we disagree with. Not that there might not be again, but it felt forced and it felt heavy. And so we've played around, we did suffrage moments last month and we might do that again, but we're just releasing ourselves to take a moment and share what's ever on our hearts.

Maybe even without a fancy name. I do. Feel very convicted that as we get closer to the presidential election, things are going to get heavy and. Scary and intense, and that it is essential to do what I've talked about on the podcast before what John Lewis talks about was a practice inside the civil rights movement, which is optimism, vision, looking into that, the future for what could be.

And so I thought I would share this week, a quote from vanity fair between an interview with Ava DuVernay and Angela Davis. And Ava did it for, and I asked her, how does it feel for a woman born into segregation to see this moment? What lessons have you gleaned about struggle? And Angela Davis answered.

That's a really big question. Perhaps I can answer it by saying that we have to have a kind of optimism. One way or another I've been involved in movements from time from the time I was very, very young and I can remember that my mother never failed to emphasize that is bad as things were in our segregated world, change was possible.

That the world would change. I learned how to live under those circumstances. Also inhabiting an imagined world. Recognizing that one day things would be different. 

Beth: [00:25:14] I think that quote plays out so much as you observe all of the commemorations of Chadwick Bozeman and how many kids, kids, and adults love black Panther so much and have also been impacted by his portrayal of major civil rights icons and to know that this person who was creating such innovative and beautiful art was suffering so deeply and so quietly. I spent a lot of the weekend, just watching videos about him and weeping in my kitchen. You know, that we've, that we've lost this person who was so intense and so clear on who he was in the world and I have such respect for that. So I love this practice. Can I add one thing that gives me a lot of hope right now on a very different note? I am so pumped about wastewater testing for COVID-19. I can't even handle it. I am so deep in the sanitation world right now. I just want to read about, but who's doing it, but you, you may have seen in the news reference to Arizona state university identifying COVID-19 in wastewater and being able to really quickly respond to that. And I just love this because it's the kind of innovation that we need. It is something that is not in a way it's very innovative and the way it's not at all right. How to do water testing. We've been doing water testing for a lot of reasons for a long time.

It does not depend on every human being, being on the same page about what this virus is. We don't need people to go stand in line for a test. We don't need people to voluntarily say, I might have symptoms or I've identified this contact myself. We can just test the water and act accordingly. And I think it is really exciting and I'm, I was super excited to learn from one of our listeners, Valerie, that Kentucky is really scaling this up.

It's happening in Northern Kentucky, where I live through sanitation district one. And I think it's awesome and exactly the kind of ingenuity that we need to be putting to work. And it gives me a lot of hope. 

Sarah: [00:27:14] Listen, Serving on our joint sewer board was one of my most favorite jobs as a city commissioner.

And I'm still close friends with the executive director of our joint SERE agency. I sent him that article immediately. And you know, the sewer is such a quiet hero. You know what I mean? Like it's such a good example of what government does the quiet impact of good government on our lives. Because let me tell you if the sewer ain't working, things get real, fast. And it's such a good reminder that like there are, there are always innovative solutions and often it's the part of the government that is, you know, running quietly and efficiently that can offer those innovations and can remind us that paying taxes and investing in infrastructure pays dividends in ways we don't always expect.

Beth: [00:28:05] We had people locally kind of throw a fit about rates, go showing up around sanitation. And I said to Chad, what is wrong with everyone? This is the thing to pay for. If you don't want to pay for anything else, I promise you want this working. So thank you to everyone who is part of that business in general, that service in general, I should say.

And thank you, you particularly to the people who are using it in such a specific public health oriented way. 

Sarah: [00:28:33] Alright, we are going to move on and talk about the Senate races. You need to keep on your radar. As election day gets closer.

Every election year we have about one third of the Senate up for reelection. The class two is up in 2020 that's 33 senators. Plus the special elections in Georgia. Y'all. Georgia is bananas. We're gonna have to break it down cause it's heck of confusing and complicated. Thank you so much for that Georgia and a special election in Arizona for a total of 35 senators currently up for reelection and the election of 2020 we'll have 12 seats currently held by Democrats. 23 seats currently held by Republicans. 

Beth: [00:29:23] If Democrats want to have control of the Senate, they need to pick up three seats, assuming a Biden Harris win, because remember the Senate has a hundred people in the event of a 50 50 split, the vice president cast, the deciding vote. So if you had a vice-president Harris, you would need three additional Democrats in the Senate for control.

You need four i you have Trump Pence back in office. 

Sarah: [00:29:49] I think it's helpful, honestly, to just think about it as even if Biden Harris, when you're going to need four seats, because I think absolutely zero people think that Senator Doug Jones who won because he was running against Roy Moore is highly unlikely to win his reelection bid against Tommy Tuberville.

So let's just assume, unless Alabama is an outlier again, that the Democrats will need four seats to control the Senate if Biden and Harris win. One of the things I read as I was looking into the analysis is breaking down ticket, splitting and Brookings Institute had a really great article that between the presidential race.

And the Senate elections that ticket splitting. So let's say you vote for a Republican president and a democratic Senator has really declined. 2016 was the first year since the 17th amendment was ratified in 1913, in which every state with a Senate race elected a Senator from the same party as the presidential candidate who won the state. So one of the best ways to look at who's vulnerable, who may be where there might be a flip opportunity is to look at the likelihood of Trump or Biden winning in that state. 

Beth: [00:31:06] Well, how do you feel about that, Sarah? 

Sarah: [00:31:08] Yeah, I mean, I don't want it to be accurate and I think had it been when Bernie Sanders at the top of the democratic ticket, it might've looked very differently, but I think for the most part, except for States like Montana, who really take the ticket splitting more seriously, it's like a part of their state identity where I think you'll have Trump win the state, but most likely Steve Bullock, the current democratic governor, win the Senate race, it's likely that you will see alignment between the presidential candidate and the Senate candidate as far as party. 

Beth: [00:31:40] I just want to say, I think here in Kentucky, our ticket splitting has served us really well over the past couple of years. I think that governor Bashir and our Republican secretary of state Michael Adams, having to really tango. I don't, I can't think of a better verb over the way our elections are going to be conducted during the pandemic has created an unusually effective, not only set of policies, but also communications around those policies. I think Kentucky has done such a good job telling people this is what's going on with our elections.

And this is why you should have confidence in it. And to have people with major stakes in that from both of the major parties is so beneficial. I can't even get over it. As I'm watching it unfold. It's really healthy and good. And so I would love to see that become more a part of our state's identity, too.

There's something. Valuable about having good faith governance from both parties. I mean, we say this all the time. I'm saying it like it's profound. It's not, there's something really valuable about good faith governance from both parties and them having to wrestle with each other. So I wish this were not so 

Sarah: [00:32:58] well, you know, depending on the year, it kind of breaks for one side or the other, as far as who's going to have a tougher gig who has more vulnerable incumbents.

This year, the Republican party has more vulnerable incumbents. There's lots of safe, democratic seats. There's lots of safe, Republican seats. Nobody's worried about Tom Cotton or Ben Sasse winning their reelection campaigns. But when you get into the toss-up category and you start to look at more vulnerable incumbents, most of them are Republicans.

You have Cory Gardner. In Colorado, you have Susan Collins in Maine and they're running in States that Biden is expected to win. Then you have Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Martha McSally of Arizona who are running in swing States. Martha McSally looks particularly vulnerable. And then you have Joni Ernst of Iowa and Steve Daines of Montana that they go for Trump.

But like we said, Montana office splits its ticket more commonly than other States. And so you have a tougher map for Republicans as far as keeping the seats. So that's why you're hearing a lot of the fundraising prowess of Mark Kelley, former astronaut husband of Gabrielle Giffords in Arizona, because McSally soon as vulnerable Sara Gideon, who's running against Susan Collins in Maine, who people have really been targeting because of her vote for Supreme court, justice Kavanaugh.

So that's why you're hearing about those States because they're vulnerable pay over paying attention to how much their opponents can fundraise, how likely they are to win even people like, you know, Lindsey Graham in South Carolina are looking more vulnerable than people would have ever assumed. 

Beth: [00:34:35] It's really hard.

I think it's important to go back to our overarching election premise. No one knows anything here because this year is so unusual because in some place is people are already voting in these races. You know, the way that the elections themselves are being conducted is really strange because of COVID-19 what people care about day to day changes all the time.

You could say, Oh, this law and order as everyone is, and it's. Just wearing me out. There's this whole push right now of, Oh gosh, the violence in Kenosha and Portland is really going to swing. Some of these voters back to the Republican party will maybe, but I don't know when those people are voting, they might already have voted.

And who knows? What's going to matter two weeks from now. So it's really hard to tell. I'm also just not sure how many people are still trying to make up their minds about anything, but it's hard to know what's going to happen. I think that a lot of these races are interesting. I think Iowa is fascinating.

Joni Ernst seems to have a slight edge right now, but I will has four congressional districts. Three of those districts are represented by Democrats right now. How much is the house race going to influence the Senate race? How much is the presidential race going to influence either of those two? It's a really interesting puzzle in Iowa.

And I think we often kind of have oversize importance in Iowa because of the caucuses being held there. But it also, to me paints a picture. That is where a lot of America is that we voted for president Obama. We voted for president Trump. We've been represented by both Democrats and Republicans. What are we going to do next?

I don't know. I don't know where they're going to end up, but I think it's a fact place to study. 

Sarah: [00:36:21] Okay. Are we ready to talk about Georgia? Maybe everybody should get it and paper, it might help you to sketch it out. 

Beth: [00:36:28] So one of George's races looks. Like most Senate races looks. We have David Perdue and John  running against each other for the seat.

We had a question on Patrion about David Purdue. I think we should spend just a moment on just that David Purdue was one of the senators who had some very beneficial stock activity happening. Before the concerns about coronavirus became publicized. There was an investigation. It is very hard as we have discussed in detail on Patrion to actually make a case against people under the stock act, the law that governs members of Congress and their investment activity, Senator Perdue has denied any wrongdoing.

He said, Do you think I actually touch my own portfolio. People outside make decisions for me independently, but what we have determined is that they will not engage in individual transactions going forward to avoid any appearance of impropriety. So if you're asking me point blank, do I think he improperly used information that he had as a us Senator to build his own wealth?

No, I do not. Do I think he has paid too little attention to that aspect of his service and the transparency and ethics around it. Yes, I do. 

Sarah: [00:37:55] Okay. We have just a regular old Senate race, but then to be extra confusing there, other Senator Senator Johnny Isaacson. Resigned effective December last year. Okay.

So he resigned December 30, first, 2019, the Republican governor, Brian Kemp appointed Kelly Loffler to serve as his replacement. It was kind of controversial. She's a massive donor. She's very wealthy. She also had her own accusations of improper stock trading post COVID-19, but she's the current Senator.

So we have to have a special election. To fill Senator Isaacson's remaining term. And in Georgia, they have what they call jungle primaries, which I think are bananas. So basically everybody goes on the ballot and if no candidate Democrat or Republican receives more than 50% of the vote. The top two finishers will advance to a runoff election held on January 5th.

And this is where it gets interesting. We have Raphael Warnock, who is the senior pastor at Ebenezer Baptist church running on the democratic side. And then Doug Collins, everybody remember Doug Collins, challenging Senator Loffler for this seat. So he's kind of the Trump backed candidate. Then you have the establishment of fakes candidate and they're most certainly going to hurt each other in this jungle primary.

So who the heck knows what's going to happen? 

Beth: [00:39:29] I don't even know how to characterize them though, because. The RNC and the white house were super mad at Doug Collins for getting in this race. I mean, he is a huge Trump supporter, but they wanted Loffler to just sail through this one and to think of her. I mean, it's just, it's this whole race is bizarre to me.

It's totally bizarre. 

Sarah: [00:39:51] I mean, I guess in some crazy scenario, maybe somebody will get over 50%. I mean, maybe they'll hurt each other. And the. Democratic candidate, Reverend Warnock will get over 50% who knows it's 20, 20, anything could happen. What other races are you paying close attention to Beth? 

Beth: [00:40:10] I am definitely watching Maine.

I think that this could be the year that Senator Collins is retired by Maine voters. And that's another interesting data point because I really think that things started to change for her significantly because of her vote in favor of justice. Cavanaugh's confirmation. Which feels really silly to say so far away from it.

When I've just said, who knows what will matter in two weeks, but that really at least sitting in Kentucky observing main press and coverage of Maine, it really feels like people were surprised and unhappy about her position in those confirmation hearings. Do you think I'm reading that wrong? And if you are from Maine and see it, otherwise, please email me and tell me about it.

Sarah: [00:40:55] I mean, I just think it was the straw that broke the camel's back. She's constantly doing this. I'm independent, but then falling in line in Maine is not particularly conservative. It's not, not conservative, but I just think this idea that she built this independent brand, but it's usually just talk and never walk is wearing thin on people.

Rebecca Traister did an amazing article called why did Susan Collins gamble her legacy on Trump? That I highly recommend that we'll put in the show notes and I just think it's reflective of. She's been trying to do this dance. It's no longer connecting with the voters. Sarah getting is a really strong candidate.

And so, yeah, I think that's definitely one I'm watching. And, you know, speaking of what it's like on the ground, people have a lot of fascination with our Senate race where Amy McGrath has challenging Senate, majority leader, Mitch McConnell. I'm actually trying to wrap up this recording today because I'm, she's in my hometown of Paducah, Kentucky, and I want to go to the rally.

So, Beth, how does it feel? That Amy's doing up in Northern Kentucky. It feels good here in Paducah. She's making lots of visits. I see more yard sign than I've ever seen for a challenger for Mitch McConnell. Although I've only witnessed one challenge, one of his like reelection campaign since I've moved home, but it seems positive right now.

Beth: [00:42:14] We all have our bubbles. Right. And then my bubble, which is mostly women who have school age, children. Who are on fire about the inability to get those children back in school safely? I think Amy McGrath is our preferred candidate. I think she is largely preferred candidate. I think that McConnell is working harder than he has worked in previous elections.

I have never, until this past weekend had a McConnell person come to our door. 

Sarah: [00:42:45] Really, 

Beth: [00:42:47] they came to your door, came to our dorm. That's never happened to me before. And I live in a pretty highly trafficked neighborhood for political drop bys. I've 

Sarah: [00:42:59] never had a horrible neighborhood. 

Beth: [00:43:01] Yes. Our media market is saturated.

I mean, if you're going to watch something like survivor, just, you know, hypothetically it is going to be McGrath, McConnell, McGrath, McConnell, every commercial break. So ton of money being spent, you can see that she has the money to hang with him, which is also new. And I'm hopeful. I'm not certain, but I am hopeful because I do think the longer COVID-19 wears on and the fact that he's on vacation right now, basically, you know, I know that's not exactly the right framing, but I think her team is doing a good job of saying like he sent the Senate home.

Yup. Do you look at an America that you think our Senate needs to be off duty right now? I think they're doing a good job of talking about that and I hope that people can hear it. And listen, I have no confidence that Joe Biden wins Kentucky. I wish that were not true, but I just think that I think that's off the table, but I would love for us to think about this election, the way that we thought about our gubernatorial election and make the right call.

Sarah: [00:44:13] So if we're looking at these seats and we're trying to get to four, and let's just say five, in case Trump wins, we have Cory Gardner who I believe will most likely lose. We have Susan Collins who I also believe will most likely lose. I definitely think Martha McSally is going to lose. I think Steve Bullock will win that's four.

So that leaves, you know, Joni Ernst. Thom Tillis. If we're feeling really excited to pick ups in Georgia, even one pickup in Georgia, I don't know. I just feel like there are a lot of paths to either democratic consultants in it for Joe Biden or at least a star on. Trump's second term in the Senate. 

Beth: [00:45:00] These are important races that I hope you'll continue to pay attention to.

You will continue to talk about them. They are hard races to run because they do feel so nationalized, but a senator's duties also so deeply impact the States they represent. I think you can see an Amy McGrath's campaign and attempt to talk about that, that this is both a local and a national service. I think MJ Hagar talks about that a lot in her race against John Cornyn.

So I know many of you are volunteering and donating and thinking deeply about these races. Please keep that up because who controls? The Senate matters so much. If you outside of Kentucky and are always giving us the side eye about Mitch McConnell, I get that because looking at his record, he has just stopped so much work being done in the house of representatives from ever reaching the floor.

And I hope that whether you agree with some of that legislation or not, you can think that's wrong. Senators should have to take those votes. They should have to go on record. That's how Congress is supposed to work. So keep your eyes on the Senate, everybody

Sarah: [00:46:14] Beth what's on your mind outside of politics. 

Beth: [00:46:16] If you follow us on Instagram, you are acquainted with my daughter, Ellen, who is five because Ellen wants to be known. And she will not, she will not suffer you, not knowing who she is. And I just want to tell you about a little question I'm having about my own parenting around Ellen, because by day, Ellen is attending virtual kindergarten, which includes.

Videos. And I'm going to, I'm going to do a kindergarten teacher voice here out of love. I'm not making fun of anyone. I just want to paint the picture of the contrast here. So she'll turn on her little video and it will be like good morning, boys and girls let's get out our journals and our crayons. We use our crayons differently than our pencils and our markers.

So that's her day in the evening. And all weekend, all Ellen wants to do is listen to Hamilton songs. And watch Hamilton and Ellen has a lot of zeal in her. And so she cannot just listen without singing along and dancing and her whole body moves. And I do not have it in me to censor her. So there is a lot of profanity coming out of my five-year-old's mouth right now in that sort of Broadway rap style.

And I heard her in the shower the other night singing at the top of her lungs. And it was the Adams administration. So I look over just in time to see her little face peaking out from behind the shower curtain going sit down, John, you felt like so pleased with hers and I about fell out of my chair. I just don't know.

I'm a little bit worried that I'm one of these kindergarten calls. She's going to call someone a bastard like. I can't, I can't take this away from her because I know that if I were able to use my energy as Ellen does, I would work a lot of stuff out. So I'm happy for her that she's emotionally healthy in this way, but there are days when I think, should I be reigning this in more?

Sarah: [00:48:19] Well, I'm fairly in the no camp. I'm pretty conservative. And a lot of my family life, shockingly cussing is not one of those areas. I call it adult words cause I will not be censored by my children. I cuss in front of my children for the most part, you know, they all tried on a little bit in my experience, no matter how much you cut or don't cuss what they listen to or what they don't, they all right on.

As soon as they figure out the words, as long as you shut it down and say, ah, that's not appropriate. You're not allowed to say that word. It like, you know, it wears off. I just cussing is not, I don't have it in me to make that an area I give a lot of attention to. And there's no doubt in my mind that the benefits of Hamilton far outweigh the risk.

As far as the curse words. 

Beth: [00:48:58] That's what I think too. We have such good discussions, such interesting conversation. She is clearly learning a lot about U S history, both from watching it informative. The conversations that we have around it, the questions that she asks. And I saw with Jane a couple of years ago, this intense anxiety around her friends who were swearing at school that I felt like we needed to dial way back.

I said to her, like these words are kind of lazy. They're kind of rude in a lot of settings, but they don't have any power. You know, let's not talk about them as though something is going to happen if someone uses them because it's not. So we care about our language that we use, but we're not afraid of these words.

And so now they're just, you know, throwing them around like crazy. But what's going on with you outside of politics, 

Sarah: [00:49:46] Beth, remember two weeks ago, I told you my bathroom floor was broken. And do you remember one week ago when I told you my bathroom floor was fixed? 

Beth: [00:49:59] I do. I've been taking careful notes before I walked 

Sarah: [00:50:03] out of my recording studio that day for my contractor to say, just kidding, it's broken for real this time, we're going to rip it up and redo it.

I'm still feeling very Zen about it. I just, I need us to decide to move on. I've been working very hard on my house. I have it the way I want it. I'm ready to settle into it and leave it alone for a while. So we're going to get this floor ripped out and redone, and then I should be done. I should not say that I am invoking the universe upon me.

But I think this is the final call. I do not anticipate. I, I definitely don't think I'm going to come back and be like, just JK it's fixed anymore. Cause I'm tired of hearing about it. I'm sure you're tired of hearing about it. I'm sure that the entire internet is tired of hearing about it. I'm feeling some real malaise when it comes to this project, I'm ready for it to be over.

But otherwise I spend a lot of time this weekend. Finishing like I'm legitimately running out of honeydew project. It's like hanging pictures. Oh, I need that paint. Like I was like a machine this weekend, I'm running out of things to do. I'm going to have to do just, I don't know, be with my own thoughts or, or do something purely for leisure and not DIY house productivity, 

Beth: [00:51:24] but 

Sarah: [00:51:25] it felt good to knock all that stuff off the list.

I told we had friends over for dinner and I said, I honestly think like deep cleaning and checking those things off my list is as good as like two solid months of therapy for me, I can feel every cell in my body like decompress when I can work through stuff like that. Cause especially this, my space is always important to me, but it's particularly important to me now, but I'm ready to.

Release some of my brain that's been occupied by that and move on to some other creative pursuits. 

Beth: [00:51:58] Well, I'm glad you're getting through your list in that way. I do not feel that I feel gosh, more squeezed for time than I ever have in a lot of ways because of schooling and all of the things. This to me is the hardest part of what we're living through right now that we're still in this shared experience of COVID-19, but we're all having such unique.

Ventures through it, you know, and the, the pressures are so different for everybody. There is pressure for everybody, but it's a unique form of pressure and it just makes it harder than that. Like first week or two in March, when everybody said, you know, cool, we'll make some bread can hang out. It's just really, 

Sarah: [00:52:39] well, let me ask you this.

Let's see if this is unique. Do you feel things in your house are breaking and wearing out because you're using them so much more? 

Beth: [00:52:47] Oh, for sure. Yes. 

Sarah: [00:52:48] Okay. For sure. I'm glad that it's not unique. Like Jeff is just, we're losing left and right. Hot water heaters, faucets leaks. I'm like, and Nicholas was like, well, think about it.

We're just using it constantly. Whereas they used to get breaks and I'm like, I guess that's a good point. But 

Beth: [00:53:04] dang. Things are wearing out and I'm just noticing, wear and tear more than I ever. Yes. Like a little Nick here, here, or a ding there, it feels like something is very wrong in the universe that it exists.

And I'm feeling that way about things that I'm certain I would not have noticed a year ago. 

Sarah: [00:53:23] Yeah. You're just noticing everything. Totally. Well, I have thought though. I don't know when we get to trigger this moment, but I would like to have a moment where I, I think about the positives that have come from this, I feel like I want like some sort of graduation ceremony from quarantine and I'm not really sure that's gonna happened, but I was thinking like, you know, We've had some real clarification about our work and travel.

I've had some real clarification with my kids as far as how has managing some of their behavior and things about my house too. Like, I do want a moment where we can just look around, should we put somebody at like, should we tell Oprah she's in charge of telling us when that moment is where we can all go?

Okay. It's time to assess what we've learned from them. 

Beth: [00:54:08] I don't know. I would like to have. Many moments like that. I think we have a long haul coming before. It's time for that. I'm really just personally preparing for a long fall and winter and for a holiday season that is unusual. And I'm okay with that.

I, I'm not gonna fight with reality. It just is. And I'm going to be here with it and I'm going to learn what I can from it. I do struggle with sort of here are the positives and always feeling as we've talked about many times that need to be like, that doesn't mean it's worth it. You know, it's still awful.

There's still so much going on. 

Sarah: [00:54:44] There's nothing bad about learning lessons through 

heart. 

Beth: [00:54:46] So many lessons learned through all of this. 

Sarah: [00:54:49] Well, let me tell you just quick, let me put this out to the universe before we wrap up. I'm not canceling Halloween y'all and the people who try are going to get angry letters from me.

There are infinite ways to socially distance and have contactless candy. And we can all start brainstorming now because I will not cancel Halloween. I just want to put that on the record before we wrap up. 

Beth: [00:55:09] Well, on that note, we hope that you all are having the best Tuesday you can have, or whenever you're listening to this, we'll be back in your ears, on The Nuanced Life on Wednesday and here again on Friday until then keep it nuanced ya'll.

Alise Napp3 Comments