All the Prognostications

All+the+Prognostications+%281%29.jpg

Topics Discussed:

  • Final Presidential Debate

  • Disinformation and the NY Post Story

  • Governor Whitmer's Response to Threats

  • Moment of Hope: (dis)connected Short Film

  • Prognostications and Polls

  • Outside of Politics

Thank you for being a part of our community! We couldn't do what we do without you. To become a tangible supporter of the show, please visit our Patreon page, purchase a copy of our book, I Think You're Wrong (But I'm Listening), or share the word about our work in your own circles. Follow us on Instagram, Twitter, and Facebook for daily news briefs, GIF news threads, and our real time reactions to breaking news. To purchase Pantsuit Politics merchandise, check out our TeePublic store and our branded tumblers available in partnership with Stealth Steel Designs.

Episode Resources

Prognostications and Polling

Transcript

Beth: [00:00:00] Hello everyone. Thank you for joining us for this episode of Pantsuit Politics. Today is entitled All The Prognostications. Okay. We're just going to go through what people who analyze data are saying about all of the important races, not just the presidential election, but all of the important races coming up. Before that, we're going to do some headlines, things coming up this week to be watching for. We'll end as always with what's on our minds outside of politics.

Before we jump into all of that. We need to do some corrections. I hate getting things wrong so much so these have been like hanging over my head. Okay. The first thing is Sarah and I are older than we wish to be, which surfaces in multiple areas of our lives, but particularly surfaced in our conversation about Matthew Shepard.

This is completely my error. It has been 22 years, not 12 since he was murdered. And I am so sorry that I got that wrong. The second thing we want to correct came up in my conversation with my friend, Eric, about guns. Now you all had lots of feelings about that conversation and said all kinds of information.

We will return to talking about gun rights and the second amendment and the usefulness versus the danger of guns after the election. But for right now, many of you zeroed in on a statistic that Eric mentioned that there were more people killed by knives last year, then by guns. And that is incorrect.

And I think this is a good example of how conversations with people we care about come go sometimes because I didn't go back to Eric and say, Hey, everyone says you're wrong. I'm mad. I went back to him and said, Hey, a lot of people are saying that they disagree with this statistic. Do you have a site for the source?

And he gave me the site and we looked at it together and he said, no, I'm sorry. It is that more people are killed by like blunt force fists, things like that then by rifles. And then we had a conversation about why are you segmenting rifles from other firearms? And it led to a really interesting and fruitful discussion.

And so I want to be sure to correct that stat on the show. Um, and also tell you that that's going to happen all the time in your lives and I think it can be a door opener instead of a door closer in those discussions. So I really appreciate Eric for spending more time with me off the show on that issue and all of you for continuing that conversation.

Sarah: [00:02:18] Well, and I think it's a perfect example of giving grace, instead of assuming that he was purposely, either trying to mislead or twisting the statistics to make a point. You went at him and gave him total and complete benefit of the doubt. Hey, this is what I'm hearing, what do you think? Instead of you're lying.

You know, I think that that is a perfect example of when we posture in a way that assumes the worst and the other person that is not, in the biggest understatement of the year, the best way to conversation and connection.

Beth: [00:02:54] Right? And I trust Eric's integrity a hundred percent. I know that he hates that this happened and was, he said, you're going to be able to correct this, right?

Like he's such a good person. He would never deliberately mislead anyone. So we both want to issue that correction. Thank you for keeping us honest and accountable and for listening closely for those things. We hate to make errors here and we appreciate that you all keep coming back and giving us the opportunity to correct them.

Sarah: [00:03:18] Before we get started, we also wanted to invite you to our pre-election political therapy. This Friday night, we are going to be together and we are going to have, and general admission event that you can buy a ticket to link in the show notes where we're just gonna, we're just gonna process y'all.

 We're going to be together. We're going to answer some questions. We're going to just work through some of our feelings about this election. We're also going to have a virtual meet and greet, which I'm very excited about. We're going to have a quick screen time call with you on video so we can see you. You can see us, you can tell us what you're thinking about the election, or just share what the show means to you.

These were our favorite moments in the live tour. Obviously we're not doing a live event, so we're going to have this virtual live event and we can't wait to see you there. Again, the link is in the show notes and we're all gonna need that political therapy, because the night before Thursday is the final presidential debate in Nashville, where we will be watching former vice president, Joe Biden and current president Donald Trump debate one final time.

 We will be on Instastories with our immediate reactions. And then of course we'll share our more in depth thoughts, um, during the live event on Friday night. But Beth, are you girding your loins for this final presidential debate on Thursday? 

Beth: [00:04:33] I think it's really cute. How many news outlets are making predictions about how this debate will go because the idea that on Saturday or Sunday, what the Trump team says, they're prepping him to do will be what he actually does on Thursday. After he has spent lots of time doing rallies across the United States and getting in that zone, I just I think it's fun that we're still trying to do that. The reporting is all that we're going to see a kinder, gentler Donald Trump.

One who is really trying to appeal more to suburban women and, uh, who makes some jokes. And again, like I get why that is the strategy. I cannot imagine that that's where we're going to be by Thursday. 

Sarah: [00:05:14] It's so interesting. Right now I'm reading Tension City, Jim Lehrer's memoir about hosting. I mean, he hosted like half of the presidential debates over the past 30 years, 40 years.

And I'm reading that memoir, which is a part of our extra credit book club. You picked this one. I love the, yes. It's really interesting because in some ways it's always the paradox of history. Like in some ways you read his insights or I love that he like follows up in interviews most of the, the people involved in these debates.

And in some way you, you read through this history and you're like, there's nothing new under the sun. You know, there were debates where people felt like they were so contentious and they were not civil. You know, the vice presidential debate between vice president Cheney and senator John Edwards, like that one got really bad reviews and people felt like they were too contentious or there's the moment where Geraldine Ferraro went back at George H W Bush for basically trying to school her in foreign policy.

They talk about that and sort of like what it was like for her to be a female vice presidential nominee. And then in some other ways, it's just, we're in a total different universe. And because of the way he approaches, because of the way the president approaches everything, it's just themes are there, but they've been dialed up to like 15 and I, as I was reading all about these presidential debates, I kind of had this sadness because, you know, I remember as a little girl watching the debate between Clinton and Bush and Perot.

 I remember as a college student, do you remember the vice presidential debate between Joe Lieberman and Cheney was in Danville um at Center College near where we attended school in Kentuckey, my now husband, then boyfriend. And I went, and there were protests and it was like, such a fun environment.

It was fun. Presidential elections to a certain personality type used to be fun. It was like, we got to talk about things that were important and that we all cared about, and it's not that they weren't absent of conflict. There was such an like a civic energy, a really fun civic energy. I think about how we even felt earlier this year being an Iowa for the democratic primary.

And I'm just so sad that he has stripped that of the last two elections. I, uh, you know, my, my 11 year old does watch the debates with me, but it's not like we don't get to have conversations about some of the policy they're talking about because we're too busy talking about why we don't treat other people that way and why we don't, we speak with kindness and why we care about our fellow citizens, even if they disagree with us. 

And I'm not saying those aren't important civic lessons too, but there is a part of me as I, as I read this memoir, that's just sad. That it has become so traumatizing to experience presidential politics when Donald Trump is participating. That you know, I have to talk about governors who are being threatened with kidnapping, and it's just, you know, I know there's a lot of things to grieve right now, but I am grieving that a little bit. 

Beth: [00:08:26] I've always loved presidential elections. I have been a person who's been dialed in to every second of them as, as long as I can remember.

I agree with you that a huge component of what has sucked some of the joy away for me is just the brute force that Trump brings into the room and the way that it reminds you of every bully you've ever interacted with. I do think there are two other components this year that have really in my mind become much more pronounced. And one of those is just the money side. 

Sarah: [00:09:01] Yeah. 

Beth: [00:09:02] Even the races that I am most enthusiastic about, I have lost my enthusiasm for. Not that I'm going to change the way I vote, I'm still going to show up and vote. I'm ready to do this, but I just feel worn down by this process in a way I never have before because of the constant fundraising appeals and the juxtaposition of the constant fundraising appeals next to the article is about record shattering fundraising.

And the fact that anytime we turn on network Television, which is not super often in my house, but often enough for me to notice, it is just one political ad after another. And it's, it's just tiring. I don't look forward to getting my mail. Mail was like life for me for the past six months, because it was connection to the outside world as we've been here, you know, basically sheltering in place from COVID and now the mail is just all this ugliness and it's overwhelming.

I understand why people do it. I have compassion for the fact that that this is at this point, a race of just getting people out and all you know, to do is to just keep doing what you, what you have using the tools that are available to you. I understand that in some ways I've been thinking about this in relation to my mom's sickness, because I feel such a sense of urgency around my mom's health.

She's doing much better by the way, but still I feel a sense of urgency everyday. I want to know everything I can know, and I wish all the time, but there was something I could do about it because it would make me feel so much better. And so I understand on the campaign end that there is that same sense of intensity and urgency and personal responsibility, and you just want to do something.

And so that leads people to sending letters and postcards and texts and calls and all of it important. Thank you if you are participating in that. At the same time, I'm really tired. And I imagine everybody involved with that process is too. And so I think we have serious conversations that need to take place about campaign finance and just how we're doing all this.

And then I do think the third layer, which is brand new is the pandemic. And just that there are such limited ways to have conversations. I haven't talk to as much to real people about this election as I would have in years past I ask because I'm not hanging up around the hallway with real people, you know?

And, and I think that there's an element of grief in that for me too, because I used to have really interesting conversations with people about elections. Certainly it comes up when the people I'm most connected to, but you have to choose so carefully whom you can be connected to right now that it's, that it's hard. So I think there's a lot of sadness around this election. Some of it having to do with the president and some of it not 

Sarah: [00:11:48] Well and I think the other layer is our understanding of foreign intervention in our elections, our understanding of disinformation and the fact that it's not just a civic exercise between Americans anymore, if it ever was.

And we certainly are more aware of that. I think this New York Post story, I don't even know if story is the right word for it. I mean, story, as in story time, let's make something up, sounds relevant. But for those of you who have not been following this, the New York Post shared a story. Two sources, Rudy Giuliani, who confessed this weekend that no other outlet would take it.

Steve Bannon was the other name source. He's currently under indictment for fraud. Other third party news source has been able to confirm the story, the person who worked primarily on it refused to have his name on it. One of the people who name was on it is new to The Post is a former producer for Sean Hannity.

And didn't really work on the story. So, you know, it's fits the bill of sort of classic disinformation coming, particularly from Russia. Experts in Russian Disinformation  say like it checks all, checks all the important boxes for the types of stories they tried to disrupt elections with. Leaked emails, child pornography.

I mean, you name it, it's got all of it. And it's just, I think there's, you know, it's the paradox of everything in this election. In some ways it's so depressing that this is what we have to watch out for. And in some ways it's encouraging that we've gotten so much better at looking out for it. But I think this idea that like there are foreign actors in our elections in such a clear and present way is another thing that really affects my perception of this campaign. 

Beth: [00:13:35] You know, as we're having conversations about this stuff, uh, with friends and family members, I think it is important to note that mainstream news sources are reporting on this story. They are just not reporting on the underlying ideas that the New York Post communicated, but no one's hiding from it. I think there's this sense sometimes that every major outlet is being really protective of Joe Biden. 

These are still newspapers and television stations who need people to be engaged with them. If they had some blockbuster story, they could confirm about something that's bad, wrong in the Joe Biden campaign or with his family, you best believe it would run on the front page. Yeah. There's no way that stuff like that gets buried in this news environment so we put some links in the show notes, business insider CNN, New York Times, credible outlets are covering this. What they're covering is how it came to be that the New York Post published the story. That's really different from ducking it and hiding. 

Sarah: [00:14:44] Yeah, no, I agree. And I was really disturbed by how, even in some of my more. Progressive circles the story was being. Shared as like, well, is this true? What do we think? And I'm like, no, no, no, no, no. Well, first of all, if something comes up and you're like, is this an October surprise what's going on?

And you can't find stories because when this story first broke, it was, it's not like it was on the cover of the New York times or the Washington post, which is your first signal. But the reason it wasn't there is because they were doing the time to report on it. It's not like they immediately came out and said, Oh, the New York Post is bullshit.

Don't believe this. They went and did their own reporting on the actual story. Um, and that took a few days. And I think that it's always important to be aware of that. Don't again, like you always say, there are no scoops in 2020. Like if you, if they're not reporting, then give them time because that's because they're doing actual reporting and checking sources and making sure that the story is true instead of running with it.

Like they did, honestly, in 2016, a lot of the times without confirming or without thinking, like what is going on here? So again, I mean, it's, it's, it's the same thing. It's like, It's depressing that this is still happening. But I do think the hopeful note here is that we are getting so much better, particularly the media, but I think citizens in general at recognizing for what it is, and at least pausing taking a beat and a breath and making sure that we know what we're talking about.

Beth: [00:16:06] I also think maintaining some sense of prioritization in this race as voters is really important because for me, I, I am enthusiastic classically voting for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, and I feel. 0% obligation to be defensive of anything relating to Hunter Biden's board service on a Ukrainian energy company.

I just don't, I'm not prioritizing that issue. I am not looking at my friends and family members who are supporting Donald Trump and saying, but really how do you not care about Ivanka's business dealings in China? Like that's just not the top issue. For me. And I think that's another way to approach these conversations. We have to slug it out over this report. Because it's just not what anyone's voting on this year. 

Sarah: [00:16:55] I think this is reflective of a pattern you will see in lots of if I'm being honest, conservative, conservative media outlets, which is to pull something extreme from the periphery and demand that everyone in the center of that spectrum take responsibility for it.

And I think it can be Hunter Biden. I think it can be, you know, over the weekend on Instagram, there was a lot of chatter about a video posted by pro reproductive rights group called shout your abortion. And all of a sudden, any woman who had been sharing that she was going to vote for Joe Biden, particularly in relationship to evolving views on abortion was then expected to be responsible for this video on this Instagram page, because what, because.

To a group and a citizen, both use the words pro choice or pro life. And then all of a sudden now you're responsible for that. Like, I think that that is such a distracting disconnecting, and honestly, like not in good faith strategy. And you see this on the, is this with celebrities too? Well, this, this progressive celebrity said this well, How do you feel about that?

I feel like that celebrity's not on my ballot and I'm not responsible for their behavior. You know, I think that there is this attempt to go all the way to the extremes, find something incendiary, and then demand anybody who's voting democratic or voting Republican, be responsible for that behavior. And I think that that is not, that's not a conversation, that's a trap.

Beth: [00:18:31] And here's the other thing I want to say. I'm also not saying people shouldn't report on those issues, that don't rise to the top of my priorities as a voter, there is a vetting process that the media is responsible for. If there's there, there about Hunter Biden, it will come out right and it should. Even if it's not the most important issue, whatever gets reported between now and election day about the Trump family and their business dealings.

I think it's relevant. It's still not the top issue for me. But it's important. I really hate hearing from people that they think Joe Biden has been like hiding and snoozing during this race, because he's not out doing everything Donald Trump is. This man has been reported on for decades. And so there has been a vetting process and there continues to be one.

The other thing I just want to say about that since it's, since I've brought it up, cause it's clearly bothering me, is that the button campaign is using surrogates very effectively. This is not a sleepy campaign. It's a disbursed campaign meaning the moment of the pandemic and the Biden campaign, I think is showing us a way of governing that is not centered on one personality.

And I like that. And I want it. I like having days where I honestly don't think about Joe Biden. I would like to have more days like that, where I honestly don't have to have a thought about that president, but maybe I'm thinking about someone in the cabinet today, or maybe I'm thinking about someone in Congress, who's leading an effort.

So yeah. I just think having conversations centered around the wrong questions, just like what you said about shout your abortion, like great report on that, understand that it's out there and also understand that it's one group in the midst of 50% of the world's population in terms of women and they're going to be a diversity of feelings about that.

Whether you're talking to pro-life or pro-choice women, there's going to be a diversity of feelings about that group. And. So, bring it up, be aware of it and then put it in its place and move on. 

Sarah: [00:20:31] So true. I think the, I love the addition of, I want to have days where I don't think about the president because I'm thinking are working on something else because I'm focused on my own school district because I cared deeply about climate change and I'm and I'm working on that, or I'm talking to my fellow citizens about that. Like often I worry that the language of, I want to not think about the president means I want to stop thinking about politics. And the truth is that our politics are so broken and the problems are so big, we can not have that luxury again.

And I know that's hard to hear, and I know that that's something we're going to have to work through and stay connected with each other to continue to face long past election day but the way that he functions at these rallies in particular saying things like lock her up, about governor Whitmer, who faced credible threats to her life and the lives of her children, is so disruptive and so harmful.

It not only creates problems like the growing power of domestic terrorist groups that we have to pay attention to, but it just sucks all the energy away, like real leadership is empowering people and open ended up energy for them in a democracy to solve these problems, not sucking up all the energy and creating new ones.

And like just watching the way he's behaved with these rallies the last few days, or the last four years is just so upsetting and so disheartening. And the thing that brings me the most hope is that I think it's becoming even more clear that that is his only approach. You know, I told myself and I said on this podcast, and I agree with the people who said the more desperate he gets, the more he will act out.

And I think, I thought the more desperate he gets, the more dangerous he gets. And I don't think that's untrue. I think there are aspects of the fact that he is president now, and that he has the power of the federal government within his grasp that makes him more dangerous with than 2016 without a doubt.

But I also think, I think that the more desperate he gets, the more ridiculous he gets and the more for a parent, it becomes that the emperor has no clothes and the way that he talks and the way chanting, lock her up about a governor who had a domestic terrorist plot against her, you know, it just. And maybe this is just me and maybe it's just me inside my bubble, but it feels so transparent and ridiculous at times, 

Beth: [00:23:09] contrast that to governor Whitmer who I find so much hope in because of the way she's handled all of this.

I can't adequately express my level of appreciation for how governor Whitmer has said repeatedly this has been really hard and awful. We have a lot of political leaders who would never say that, who would interpret that as a sign of weakness, a lot of political leader leaders who would just say, well, it comes with the territory.

And governor Whitmer has said, this has really been hard. I've had to talk to my daughters about people with assault rifles, walking around our property to check it out. I've had to educate my children about these threats and that has been hard. And it, it has been discouraging and I'm worried that it will discourage other people from serving in public office.

Like, I really appreciate her saying those hard things while at the same time standing firm. In her approach to governance and saying, my focus this whole time has been on public safety and it is discouraging that I am having to worry about personal safety, because I have been worried about the safety of others.

I just appreciate she's calm. But she is honest about how this impact is impacting her and her family and I think that is extremely hopeful. As we say that we want more politicians who are honest and transparent and forthright and authentic I just, I really respect the way that she has responded to all this.

I respect, she calls him out too and says this isn't helping. I mean, it would be very easy to take a much more, more kind of focused grouped approach to this. Whether she, where, where she either completely ignores him, or she puts it all at his feet, but says it does, it's no skin off her back. And she has no doing either one of those things. And I really admire 

Sarah: [00:25:04] it. Well, and let me say something else about this particular campaign season that is different, but yeah, that is giving me hope. I love that people are starting to use the words election season instead of election day, because 28 million Americans have already voted. And I love this.

I thought that I really wanted to see everybody's election day stickers and post on election day just to really get a concentrated dose of that patriotic hope and civic engagement, Maya culpa. I was wrong, the steady stream of lines and citizens voting and posting their stickers. Also side note, people who are in charge of the state stickers have really stepped up their design game this year.

I see you. And I appreciate you. And I love it. Like seeing all that and seeing everybody just so joyful going out there and not letting anything stop them. The videos piece people are posting like, Oh my God, it's beautiful. I want to live here all the time. I know we can't vote in perpetuity, but I love election season.

I love having these several weeks of watching people just go out there, get it done. I think it is so energizing and so empowering. And I think that we are looking at historic turnout and that brings me so much joy and it gives me so much hope that we're not just going to say, okay, we got 'em out of here. We're done. I see in Americans across this country, the dedication and the belief that our work is just beginning and it feels amazing. 

Beth: [00:26:58] Big shout out here to Kentucky's Republican secretary of state Michael Adams, who's really embraced this, gotten a lot of criticism from within his party for it, but he's really embraced election season.

He tweets in a fun way about it. What's your election day going to be? This is great. Like, I really appreciate that he's worked with our democratic governor. We have this across the aisle, very legitimate approach to our LA Chin's this, we don't go backward from this. Right, this cannot be just pandemic way of voting.

When you see this many people respond I think we have to say, we want this. We want more of this in future elections, pandemic or not. And so I'm excited about the innovation that could come from this horrible time we've been through because you are seeing Americans want to vote when you make it where they can, they want to do it, and they will.

Sarah: [00:27:47] We have one more moment of hope for you before we move on to the main segment of the show. So Brynn Dyckman is a fan of the show, daughter of a listener. Y'all she made the most amazing short documentary film called Disconnected about what it's like to be a young adult in this social media environment.

I watched it, I cannot recommend it enough. So here's an audio clip of brand talking about disconnected, and the link is in the show notes so that you can watch it yourself. 

Brynne Dickman: [00:28:16] Hi, Sarah and Beth. My name is Brynn. I'm a high school senior in Colorado Springs. I have been making short, artistic travel videos and posting them on Instagram for about four years.

But two years ago, my interest in pursuing a bigger, more serious project grew. I applied for a summer documentary filmmaking program where teams learned to make short documentaries with the help of professionals. When my application was rejected, I realized that I had become really passionate and curious about the topic that I had selected for my documentary, the effects of screen time on teenagers. 

Screens are still relatively new and because my generation is the first to grow up with constant access to them, I wanted to dig deeper and learn more about how screens affect not only our everyday life, but our young minds. I decided, but that I didn't need to be a part of a program to make a film.

Instead, I relied on my local library for filmmaking equipment and resources, and I've made it on my own. The film, called Disconnected, explores the effects of screen time on teenagers through my 16 year old eyes. It features interviews from parents, teens, and experts discussing how today's teens juggle relationships with social media, video games and TV.

Teens share their experiences with screens ranging from teens who despise their phones to teens who admit to using their phones as an escape from reality, I would like Disconnected to be a resource for thriving in a digital age, a guide for parents and teens alike. You can view the film@disconnectedfilm.com, where there's more information about it, links to more information about managing screen time and a blog that follows my personal journey managing screen time during a pandemic. 

The film is just 16 minutes long and appropriate for all ages, making it a great discussion starter for families. Thank you so much for taking an interest in disconnected and sharing it with your audience.

Beth: [00:30:32] Okay, Sarah, we're going to do something that I'm surprised that we're doing take a minute and cruise through the polls. What I love about doing this is it's a good way to not only focus on the presidential election, but to remember what's going on state by state and in our house and Senate races as well.

So shall we start with governors? It's so easy to miss governors and boy, especially in a pandemic, your governor has an enormous amount of power and influence over what's going on, where you are. There are some gubernatorial seats on the ballot this time, lots of incumbents, 

Sarah: [00:31:10] so many incumbents, which I think is going to be really interesting because of the absence of federal leadership around COVID.

There has had to be a lot of state leadership. So we have about 11 governor's up for reelection and it's like almost all incumbents over reelection. Now in Montana, they have two new candidates cause Steve Bullock was term limited and he's running for Senate and in Utah, Gary Herbert, isn't running because he's, it's been their governor for 10 years.

Holy mess. That's a long time to be governor. It looks like the Lieutenant governor Spencer Cox is polling way ahead. So they're going to have new leadership, but you're talking about the leadership of Jay Inslee in Washington state through the wildfires on the ballot. I'm Roy Cooper, the democratic governor of North Carolina on the ballot.

I'm really interested in the race in West Virginia with Jim Justice. Like you just have a lot of governors who were making really public health decisions and they're going to be on the ballot. And I think it's going to be really interesting to see how people respond. 

Beth: [00:32:10] Republicans are favored to win I think seven of these contests. Did you know that Vermont has a Republican governor. I just want to hover for a second on Vermont having a Republican governor and the fact that Vermont governor has to run every two years. 

Sarah: [00:32:26] Oh, that's awful two year terms are awful saying this is a person who lived in a two term. That doesn't surprise me at all, because I have learned not to be suppressed about anything with when it comes to Vermont and New Hampshire. If I'm being honest, like they're just the doing their own thing. They handle things differently. They're pretty independent. So, yeah, I don't know if I am surprised by that. 

Beth: [00:32:44] I think it shows you some of the longterm effects of having elections that don't require people to affiliate with a party. I just wonder psychologically, if you don't have to register as Republican or Democrat, if you are just more inclined. I mean, for Vermont would certainly bear out that state turns out heavily for Bernie Sanders in a statewide race, and then has a Republican governor it's.

Fascinating and it's important. And I think there's something really about it. Uh, Phil Scott, Republican, governor of Vermont, I became very interested in because I was surprised to see that state red on the news aerial map. And he is a pretty good moderate Republican. He is supportive of, um, LGBTQ rights, for example, he's never supported it, Donald Trump, and it's just it's the kind of Republican that most people think don't doesn't exist anymore.

 And the fact that he's the governor of a state gives me a lot of hope. So really interesting to see that. And, and I agree with you, Sarah, like Indiana's governor, I'm interested in how people vote, given that he's handled the COVID pandemic, uh, in ways that I find to be sporadic. Like he, he seems to like talk a better game than he's willing to regulate. So this is going to be really fascinating, especially in Montana where you have Steve Bullock now on the ballot again, but for Senate, how that's gonna impact that given tutorial seat I'm interested to see too 

Sarah: [00:34:07] well and I look forward. You know, decades from now, maybe it won't take that long to the political article science slash public health studies about that differing approaches of governors who were up for reelection in 2020, and those who are not like that will be super interesting. I'm super excited. Cause I'm do work about all that data and how that plays out.

You know, the, the, the governor of Vermont reminds me a lot of the governor of Massachusetts, and I think that moderate Republican governors and democratic States. I got no beef with them. I really don't have any beef with them. And I feel the same way about democratic governors and Republican stamps. Not adult.

I don't love it when they're, I think we have a narrative in America that you're seeing bubble up in some of the Senate races right now, because certain parties are getting desperate, which is what we have to, you have to have divided power. That's how you keep people in check. And I think if both parties are operating in good faith, that can be true.

And I think if I'm being honest, you see that more in democratic States with Republican governors than you see in Republican States with democratic governors, there's less good faith from the Republican legislators when it comes to democratic governors in red States, there's a lot of manipulation like you saw in North Carolina. There's a lot of midnight dealings like you see, like you've seen in Kentucky, even in Texas to a certain extent.

So I'm not, I'm down for divided government when both people are, when both parties are acting in good faith, which I do think you see in those blue States. And I think that's why you see good leadership. 

Beth: [00:35:30] So should we talk about the Senate? 

Sarah: [00:35:33] Oh, I'm super excited about the Senate. I can talk about the Senate all day long.

Beth: [00:35:38] Well, it's interesting because I think if you had asked me a year ago, Was, would there be any chance of Republicans losing control of the Senate? I would have said no, 

Sarah: [00:35:47] that you wouldn't have been the only one, sister. Everybody was saying, 

Beth: [00:35:50] and now I will be very surprised if Republicans don't lose control of the Senate. It's just amazing that the turn over the past year. 

Sarah: [00:35:57] Well, and let's talk about the turn in the last few weeks. Ben Sasse blessings, John Cornyn, blessings. Don't roll in here two weeks before election day. And say, well, listen, I've just been a disagreement with him the whole time. Yeah. Only people that get to hold that the only Senator truly, I believe that can hold up that mantle and say, I have criticized him openly and taken the heat that comes from it is Mitt Romney.

And the rest of y'all are talking some election day smack that I can't believe anybody would believe. And the fact that the Republican Senate leadership is acting surprised that there's a trickle down from the terrible presidency of Donald Trump to Republican senators, and then trying to shift their tone and abandon him at this point is outrageous and laughable. I feel very strongly about this. 

Beth: [00:36:51] It is the continuance of a theme where we have elected officials who do not exercise the power that we give them. There is so much lamenting in sort of inside baseball Capitol Hill journalism about how little power rank and file senators feel they have. I just want to pause on the term rank and file Senator that's outrageous.

That's outrageous, there are a hundred people in this country and you're one of them. And you feel like you're the rank and file stop that the Senate rules themselves do not vest as much power in Mitch McConnell and Chuck Schumer as Senate convention does, I'm going to put a real wonky look at how the Senate functions in the show notes.

If you would like to spend some time on this. Yes, it is easy. For McConnell to prevent legislation from coming into the Senate. Yes, it is easy for party leadership to steer the ship, but easy isn't getting it done. And the fact is our elected representatives have more power and authority than they choose to use.

And that's been true and it's been on a trajectory for at least 10 years. So I really want us to have a rowdier Senate. I can't believe I'm saying that this is not my personality, but we might a rowdier  Senate where some people we'll just say no, like we are going to vote on this. What do I have to do to get this to the floor?

The legislative graveyard is people like to talk about with Senator McConnell is a real thing. There are hundreds of bills, including 10, that are the kinds of things we talk about here all the time that if the American public were pulled on, when they are pulled on and have broad bipartisan support campaign, finance issues, voting rights issues, gerrymandering terms, there are so many things that the Senate could be taking up that the house has already passed and they refuse to.

So when people like Senator Sasse and Senator Cornyn want to tell us that really they have been so discouraged this whole time, well do something about it. Friend, you got a lot more power to than the people that they're on that phone call with you. Pick it up and do something with it or hand it over to somebody who will, and that's really why even as.

The polling looks like such a hard climb for Amy McGrath, for MJ Hagar, for some of our favorites who are running. Those are the people we need in the Senate because they will not for a second, let a party leader tell them that a bill is not coming to the floor. They will do it 

Sarah: [00:39:17] again. I would like to see them try.

I would very much enjoy someone trying to tell Amy what to do. In fact, yeah. I want a video. I'd like some sort of TicTok summary. Thank you. Here's all I have to say about that. It's not allowed to say about this. I could talk about this for an hour. Cause it makes me so angry. They're full of it. It's really not even just about the legislative calendar.

They didn't criticize Donald Trump because they were worried about a primary challenge from his base. And they don't step to Mitch McConnell because they need his fundraising. Make no mistake, those were political. Calculuses about their own future and not. Their constituents, what their constituents want needed or were depending on.

And if you think that the fallout will just come from your support of Donald Trump, if you think that people will not remember that you rushed through the confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett in record time and let COVID relief sit there, then you guys are denser than I thought. 

Beth: [00:40:12] I agree with you.

Yeah, I 

Sarah: [00:40:17] agree. I mean, I. What do they, I, there's a part of me that thinks they're still living in 2000. I don't know, 10, 12. I don't know if they think if there's a little bit that the Republican leadership likes being in the minority because they can just be the party of no, because they have shown an inability or an unwillingness to present actual priorities beyond tax cuts, because that's the thing, like I was, I, my husband and I were talking about this and I thought like, Is this really going to be a generation wide fallout long plat past the Donald Trump presidency?

Or will they just pivot and go back to the, you know, tea party? Government's the problem, governments the problem. Government's the problem. See, we told you government's the problem. I just can't fathom that will work this time. Maybe I'm too overly optimistic, but what I see and our listeners, what I see when I read articles in the New York times, like they had this weekend about suburban women voters is a Pandora you can not put back in the box. 

When you have told a woman for decades, that she can't be a good Christian and vote Democrat and then she does and realizes her faith is intact and her life is fine. Like you can't go back. And so much to that opposition was saying, all that matters is this. And I think the problems facing our country are getting so large and so loud once a voter.

And I don't think they're just women voters, re-examining their beliefs on this or their approach to voting once a female voter turns and says, now I'm gonna try it this way. It's not like the next election. She's going to go back back to voting the exact same way. Like to me, this is like, I don't know if the, if the Republican leadership sees the writing on the wall as far as the future of the party, but it's going to go way past Senate control in 2020 and the white house in 2020.

Beth: [00:42:25] think a lot will depend on how power is exercised. If you have democratic Senate democratic house, democratic president, a lot of what happens from there will depend on how the power is exercised. And historically, in a situation like that, two years later, you would have a shift at least control of the house, right?

And I don't know what will happen. I do think that there is a reckoning that Republicans have been talking about since at least 2012, in terms of where the party is on race and where the party is on reproductive rights. And. And where the party is on, um, marriage equality. And non-discrimination, there are things that I think just culturally, we are moving past the backlash, which is probably why we have such an intense backlash right now.

That's not an original thought by any stretch. I do think in this election, a good night for Republicans is keeping the Senate close versus having lost a lot of seats. And I also think we should prepare for the fact that there are races that are getting a lot of publicity that are still toss up races.

I don't know if Jamie Harrison's going to beat Lindsey Graham. I think there's a real shot at him doing that. And that in and of itself, self is a big story and that will matter, even if he doesn't win, that will matter to make that much progress. Amy McGrath has given Mitch McConnell the run of his life, and if she doesn't win, which I sincerely hope she does, but I know it's a long shot.

If she doesn't win that, that will still have mattered. I get really frustrated with the people tweeting about the races that they think there is no shot in acting like we should just give up on them. No, you make a dent. You make progress because this isn't the only election and it's not the only time what people are doing in races all over the country is going to have a really long tail like you were talking about. And I also think there is a shot in some of those races that people are writing off. 

Sarah: [00:44:21] Will my husband ever, ever, ever let me live down that I bought airplane tickets to Hillary Clinton's inauguration? No. Does that mean you should trust my positive outlook on the current polling? Perhaps not, perhaps you should not, but I am frustrated with the idea that this positive polling is just like the positive polling from 2016 and Donald Trump could still win.

Donald Trump could still win, but this is not 2016. I don't think it's even comparable to 2016. I don't think Joe Biden is the same candidate is Hillary Clinton. I don't think the media or the citizen awareness of disinformation and foreign intervention is the same as 2016. I don't think social media is handling of disinformation is the same as 2016.

I don't think that the enthusiasm is anywhere near the gap we saw in 2016. I think there was this narrative that Donald, we're going to give Donald Trump a try. We'll just see how it goes. That is nonexistent. Obviously, when you have Donald Trump as an incumbent president, I just, that sort of storyline really bothers me.

Like I read the other day, despite the fact that Joe Biden has been up in the polling the entire time, the majority of Americans still think Donald Trump is gonna win. Y'all. We got to talk about that. 

Beth: [00:45:49] Well, I understand why you feel that way. And I don't disagree with anything that you've said. The piece that I just have to add in for myself mentally is all those things that are different from 2016 are different, but we don't have anything that tells us what that means.

Hmm, we don't have any reasonable modeling based on demonstrated past results to know how a pandemic is going to shift this election, to know how our understanding of disinformation to know how the shift in social media response to this information will shift. We like, I understand why news outlets and particularly why people who work on campaigns are hesitant to say, yeah, it's looking good because, or it's looking really bad. Cause there are still so many things that are just question marks. 

Sarah: [00:46:42] I think there's also this aspect of me that sees stuff and thought, and thanks. Of course, even with the pandemic, like, no, we don't have modeling for what happens in a pandemic, but anyone who has lived through this pandemic through March should not be surprised.

That senior citizens and women are falling away from Donald Trump's leadership during the pandemic in droves, because they have been the ones disproportionately affected. Senior citizens because they are, they are vulnerable to Coronavirus and women, because they're holding up the entire world right now.

Like I just, there's a part of me that's like, of course, of course, doesn't this make perfect sense. Doesn't it make sense that if this is a referendum on his handling of COVID and then he gets COVID before the election, his numbers are going to bottom out even more. Like, I think there's still a lot of unknowns, but then to me, every time, something we gain more information.

It fits into to what I know to be true. And that, that doesn't mean that I'm not still just as invested. Listen, I gave money to Doug Jones the other day. I'm here for that. I gave money to Carolyn Bordeaux who's running for Mark Meadows old seat. Like I think the other piece of data to come out of this, that will be fascinating.

I think the fundraising is through the roof, not just about enthusiasm, but because during a pandemic that something you can do, 

Beth: [00:48:06] I agree with that a hundred percent. 

Sarah: [00:48:08] So. There's just a part of it too, that like, I don't feel like I see anything that, that makes me go. Hmm. That's an outlier. Like, just to me, like things are that, that go in the column of like, this is what seems true to me and they're falling in place again.

Did I buy plane tickets last time? Yes, I did. It's just with me forever, but I don't know. It feels different this time in like every humanly way possible. 

Beth: [00:48:35] So let's talk about the house briefly. The headline for me, anytime I'm talking about the house, is that a 435 seats? There are 22 elections considered to be true tossups 

Sarah: [00:48:47] outrageous. That's outrageous. 

Beth: [00:48:49] None of us should feel good about it. That that completely deprives us of a responsive accountable government. And. To me, one of the big reasons that I would like Democrats to have control of the house and Senate is because I believe Democrats are likely to move forward HROone, which has been sitting around for forever about gerrymandering. We have got to do better than 22 out of 435 seats being competitive. 

Sarah: [00:49:17] We need more representatives y'all we don't need to just, I'm a, I'm going to reclaim pack as a positive verb. I want to pack the court. I want to pack the house of representatives. 435 people to represent 300 million is not math I'm comfortable with. That's got to change. 

Beth: [00:49:34] And look, I think that if your instinct is no, that's a problem. It's good to back away and ask why. And I say, this is a person whose instinct is no, let's keep it the way it is. Um, Sarah has really worked on me about this number. Aye. Tell my daughter, whenever we're talking about belief systems that I don't ever want to have a belief that makes me afraid of new information.

If I translate that to the civic sphere away from faith or something like that. And I translate that to the civics beer sphere. I don't want to have a political ideology that makes me afraid of more people voting or makes me afraid of more people being represented in government. That feels like the same kind of closed intellectual loop that would lead me, have a faith that prevents me from taking in new information.

I think that's a problem. I don't, I don't think we should look at so many people voting early and think anything other than, wow. That makes me proud. I'm so glad that's happening. And so when I blow that out to structural changes, like allowing Puerto Rico and Washington, DC to be adequately represented in our government.

I think what would we even be fearful of more people being democratically represented? I just think that cannot be a problem. And if it is, then we've really got to ask why. And I don't like any of the available answers to why they're, to me, when I dig into that, everything gets to something dark. And so, uh, dark and disrespectful and antithetical to what it means to live in it in a society where you're supposed to be democratically represented within your Republic.

So to me, the house we'll probably remain in democratic control. I've not seen one forecast that shows Republicans taking the house back. Right. Uh, but yeah. That's just like not the biggest problem in my mind, the setup of the house is fundamentally broken. 

Sarah: [00:51:37] I think when I look through all of this, like, listen, I've been a Democrat since I was 18.

I'm excited about the concept prospect of democratic control of the house and the Senate and the presidency. But I understand not everyone is there with me. I get that. It presents a very difficult challenge for democratic leadership because we did this before with Obamacare, we try to give, um, You know, the benefit of the doubt and assume good faith in the other side, I don't know if I would argue for that this time because of the, what the leadership has exhibited.

The Republican leadership has exhibited over the past four years and even the eight years during Obama, all that to say, um, if you are a person who is not excited by the process of democratic control in the house, in it and the president, I see, I think I would just point to. The other thing that gives me hope here, which is just there's energy for change.

And I can't imagine many Americans look at the state of our politics and the state of our government and think everything's perfect. Let's keep it the same. And even if you disagree with the type of change that the democratic party typically argues for, and that is completely and totally valid, what I hope comes from this election and from the down-ballot elections, from the, in the Senate and the house with your, with governors, with state reps and state house representatives with city commissions and city councils and board of education is energy for change. I want both sides at the table in good faith saying we don't like how things are and we want them to be different.

I hope that that's what comes out of this election. And I hope that that energy. Not only flows down the ballot, but out into elected officials and community boards and legislators in our States and in our Congress and in your conversations and everywhere because we need it. We need it desperately.

Beth: [00:53:54] Sarah what's on your mind outside of politics. 

Sarah: [00:53:56] Okay. So you had an issue with Beloved Jane and so YouTube viewing to the night and our inbox is filled up with people saying I'm struggling with the same thing. And I thought I would share my approach because it is very different than yours. Your approach is built around trust.

That is awesome. And it's not that I don't trust my kids, but I have a particular one son who struggles with ADHD and impulse control. So my approach to screens is very much built around setting him up to make a good choice for better, for worse with all of my boys. I can't just trust them to turn them off and follow the, the screen time limits without some processes. 

So I thought I would share some that have worked for us in the past for people out there struggling with this. Unfortunately, there is not one size fits all approach to this screen situation. I know I'm saying something that we all totally completely understand at this point.

So it's really changed in our house depending on what device my kids are like super into. So for a while, my two older sons had Nintendo DSS. Now the Nintendo switches have masterful parental controls that I don't understand why we can't Institute on everything, but that aside, the DS didn't have any controls.

It doesn't it connect to the internet, blah, blah, blah. So a thing that worked really well for us for a while is we would just charge the DS's once a week, you want to run them down on Monday, run the battery down on Monday, but you're not going to get to charge it again. It's a very easy thing to control. I would keep the charters myself and I was the only one who could charge the chargers in.

That was a very good approach for awhile. We did not just stay on the Nintendo DSS. And so now we have a Disney circle, which we actually receive through sponsorship of the show. I love it. So the Disney circle controls through the router and not through the device so you can set screen time limits for iPads, phones, TVs.

Like I might, I don't know about you, but all our kids watch us basically Roku streaming. And so that's controlled through the internet. And so I can pause TVs. I can pause the internet and specific devices so that they can't continue to watch them. I can set screen time limits. I can filter limits. I love that approach.

Now, before we got the circle, I legitimately have a metal lock box that I lock remotes up at the end of the night, because I was having the middle of it situation. People sneaking out in the middle of the night and going and watching TV. So I would. Lock literally lock the remote's up cause you can't control the remote from the actual television box.

So these are all sort of strategies that I've used interchangeably either literally locking them up or setting filters and screen time limits through circles. Or like I said, through the switch, which has again, masterful, masterful everybody in the universe in control of screen time, limitations or filters, please go study the Nintendo switch in detail. 

That'd be great. Thank you so much. But I just want to share that because you know, it's so hard, it's constantly evolving. I wish we could just hit a moment and be like, dust it off. We're done. We figured it out the screen time thing, but it's something like I spend way too much of my life thinking about and working with and trying to figure out so that my kids have healthy limits in place.

I had a good system in place. And then of course it all got blown up with virtual schooling, but I just thought, you know, Because I have such, uh, an impulse problem that we're trying to like really work with our boys on dealing with. I just thought I would share our screen time approach. 

Beth: [00:57:22] And if you don't know the Genesis of this conversation, it's a good reason to go sign up for our newsletter right now, because I shared in our newsletter. Basically, I asked Jane to write a report after she had been inproperly using technology. And so I wrote one for her as well, that included links and assignments, and it has actually been really good. 

Sarah: [00:57:40] And you watched Social Dilemma together, which I'm definitely going to do. That was an excellent idea. 

Beth: [00:57:44] It blew her mind too. And it was interesting because I don't feel like there were ideas in it that I haven't communicated to her in some way before. But the part of it that annoyed me, that vignette with the family, kind of personifying algorithm's really worked for her. 

Sarah: [00:58:01] That makes so much sense to me. 

Beth: [00:58:03] She really got it. And we had a really interesting conversations about it. And so I was, I was happy with, with the approach that I took to this problem, but I, I think it's good. I mean, we have to parent, there's no one right way to parent and different kids are different, different families. So I'm so glad that you shared that.

The one thing that I just want to mention before we go outside of politics, but not really. Uh, my text messages this morning when I woke up were all friends who were just like, I'm done with everything. I'm so tired. You texted me, Sarah. I just need to announce that I hate this week.

And as you were texting that I had another long thread with friends where my last contribution before I went to bed had been, I don't really want to do anything. I don't want to eat. I don't want to watch TV. I don't want to leave my house. I don't want to stay here anymore. Like, there's nothing that I really want.

And so I just think it's healthy and important to. Say out loud that if that's what your text messages look like, you're not alone. If you don't even have the energy for those text messages or you feel disconnected from people you're not alone, either we are all struggling. I kept having moments over the weekend where I thought, why am I so tired?

But the answer is just because of course you are, of course you are like this, this just been an increase of incredibly difficult, exhausting gear in ways that we don't have good tools for I'm struggling. In addition to this podcasts, I do coaching of clients and I feel like my toolbox is empty because we just don't have tools to meet the demands of this year on our energy.

 The level of like, I don't know, atmospheric grief that we're experiencing. It's it's. Too much and it's a lot and so it makes me feel better to step back and say, this is not that I'm doing something wrong and there is not a fix to this that I can do. And so the gentlest way to go through it is to remember that I'm in a large boat with lots of other people. Nobody has a secret sauce to like hack this year. 

Sarah: [01:00:15] Yeah, this is, uh, my exact struggle this weekend. I didn't want to do anything. I felt completely en motivated and just tired. And my body is doing what my body often does.

You know, I, this is going to come a surprise to everyone who listens to this show. The inside of my brain is kind of intense. And so. I can convince myself of a lot of things. See previous conversation about Hillary Clinton's inauguration airplane tickets. And I do this with stress, right? I do the classic like, well, it's, I'm so blessed.

I have this. This is going well. I don't have anything to complain about. And then my body just keeps like, like knocking ever so gently on my door and being like, you're cute. Like, you're cute. You're real cute. And I love that you have this positive outlook and you're trying to keep perspective. And also I am holding all this tension and I'm going to politely remind you the first couple of times, and then I'm going to lock your jaw up and you're going to have a killer headache until because you're not listening to my polite reminders.

Like my, I feel like my body is just carrying so much tension. And, and I'm just not, I had a conversation with a girlfriend this weekend where we were both just like, it's just too much. So like, it's just, it's too much. And even in scenarios where you feel like you have it under control, or it's not that bad for you, it just doesn't matter.

It's just theirs, just so much tension and stress and anxiety in the air. Like I even think with the election, like I read those polls every day and I know they're positive and still I have to acknowledge just the, the unknown and how much anxiety revolves around this election. And that we're reliving the trauma of the last time we thought we knew things were going to go okay, then they didn't like, it's just, it is, it's so much.

And it's it's feels like the most intense weight on our shoulders and that are already scrunched up to our ear lobes with tension and anxiety. And is it, it is, it's helpful to just articulate it and to understand. You're not alone. 

Beth: [01:02:31] And we'll be with you all week in a variety of forms as we're all not alone together, you can check in with us on social media.

We'll have a new episode of The Nuanced Life out for you tomorrow. On Thursday, we'll be on Instagram reacting to the presidential debate. And on Friday, we can be here together in a big community for pre-election political therapy. Get your tickets in the show notes. Everybody have the best week available to you. Keep it nuanced, y'all.

Alise Napp1 Comment