How Do You Solve a Problem Like 2020?
Topics Discussed:
Our New Look! (01:48)
Australian Wildfires (03:40)
Iran & Qasem Soleimani (04:19)
Manda Bay Kenya Attack (23:39)
Venezuelan Politics (25:12)
Compliments: Michelle Williams and Those Involved in Harvey Weinstein's Trial (27:04)
The Challenges of 2020 (31:33)
Outside of Politics (56:12)
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Episode Resources:
Supporters Of Venezuela's Maduro Try To Seize Control Of Legislature (NPR)
All Bets Are Off as Harvey Weinstein’s Sexual Assault Trial Opens Today (The New York Times)
Conflict with Iran:
US-Iran tensions: Timeline of events leading to Soleimani killing (Al-Jazeera)
Qasem Soleimani: Timeline of events leading to US killing of Iranian general (Evening Standard)
In A Day Of Turmoil, Repercussions Of Soleimani Killing Grow More Widespread (NPR)
Iranians Close Ranks Behind Leaders After U.S. Kills Popular General (The New York Times)
American Foreign Policy Is Broken. Suleimani’s Killing Proves It. (The New York Times)
Iran announces it is suspending its commitments to the 2015 nuclear deal (The Washington Post)
Trump faces Iran crisis with fewer experienced advisers and strained relations with traditional allies (The Washington Post)
Dear Colleague on Introduction of War Powers Resolution (Nancy Pelosi)
Iran Timeline:
The US first imposed sanctions against Iran in 1979 after a group of students seized the American Embassy and held hostages. We froze $12 billion in Iranian assets and imposed a trade embargo. These sanctions were lifted in January 1981 as part of negotiating the hostages' release.
We imposed sanctions again in 1987 because of actions Iran took against US ships in the Persian Gulf and its support for terrorism. The sanctions were expanded in 1995.
We added sanctions in 2006 after Iran refused to halt its uranium enrichment program. We hit the oil, gas, and petroleum sectors, all business dealings with the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), banking, insurance, shipping, web-hosting, domain registration services.
The UN has expanded sanctions, too. All of these sanctions together seriously hurt Iran's economy, which brought it to the table for nuclear talks.
2015: JCPOA signed - an international agreement that lifted most sanctions. When Trump talks about giving Iran lots of cash in connection with the JCPOA, he's getting the facts wrong. Iran regained access to its own assets, which had been frozen under the previous sanctions. We did not gift Iran money from the US treasury. We did pay Iran to settle a dispute over military equipment Iran paid the US for that was never delivered in connection with the deal.
Jan. 2016: Iran determined to be in compliance with JCPOA; sanctions against Iran lifted
May 8, 2018: Trump withdrew the US from the JCPOA. Said US wanted Iran to abandon nuclear program and pull out of the war in Syria (Iran is a close ally of the Assad regime and is providing logistical, technical, financial, training support, and some combat troops
August 7, 2018: US reimposes first round of sanctions on Iran that had been lifted as part of the JCPOA. Hit everything from aviation and gold to carpet and pistachios
November 5, 2018: US announces a new round of sanctions targeting oil and banking because of its support for militant groups and development of ballistic missiles.
April 8, 2019: Trump designates the IRGC a foreign terrorist organization -- the first time the US has labeled another country's military a terrorist group. Came with wide-ranging economic and travel sanctions on the group. Iran then labeled the US a "state sponsor of terrorism" and said our troops in the Middle East were terrorist groups.
May 5, 2019: US sent an aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East
May 8, 2019: Iran said it was preparing to increase enriched uranium and heavy water production. Trump announced new sanctions against steel and mining sectors.
May 12, 2019: 4 ships in the Strait of Hormuz "were subjected to sabotage operations" according to the UAE
May 14, 2019: drone attack on Saudi Arabian, struck a major oil pipeline. US and Saudi Arabia blamed Iran for arming Houthi rebels (Yemen)
May 19, 2019: a rocket landed near the US embassy in Baghdad. Trump tweeted a threat to Iran.
Late May - early June: Japanese PM Shinzo Abe offers to broker talks between US and Iran.
June 13: Abe is still in Tehran. Japanese and Norwegian tankers were attacked in the Gulf of Oman (ambiguous details)
June 17: US sends 1000 troops to the Middle East and Iran says it's 10 days away from surpassing the limits set by the JCPOA on low-enriched uranium , asked European signatories to help with US sanctions
June 20: Iran shoots down a US military drone. Conflict over where it happened. (over international waters v Iranian airspace)
June 21: Trump says he called off a military strike in retailitation 10 minutes before it was scheduled because it wasn't proportionate to shooting down the drone
June 22: Iran ordered the execution of a defense ministry contractor convicted of spying for the CIA
June 25: Trump orders more sanctions, this time targeting Iran's supreme leader
(all kinds of trash talking by both countries on twitter during this period of time because we live in the worst timeline)
June 29: US deploys F-22 Raptor stealth fighters to the Middle East
July 1: Iran exceeded the limit on enriched uranium set by the JCPOA
July 4: British Royal Marines seized a supertanker accused of carrying Iranian oil to Syria (Iran later says the ship had 2.1 m barrels of its crude oil and the ship's new owner would decide on its destination; a court in Gibraltar allowed the ship to be released to sail over US objection)
July 8: Iran violated another uranium enrichment cap from the JCPOA
July 19: IRGC seized a British oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz
July 22: Iran arrests 17 of its citizens and charges them with spying for the US. There are reports that some were executed.
July 25: the UK announced that its Navy would escort all British ships through the Strait of Hormuz
August 1: US imposed sanctions on Javad Zarif, Iran's foreign minister
August 23: Iran's president shows off a new air-defense system at a ceremony
September 3: US imposes sanctions on Iran's civilian space agency and 2 research organizations it said were advancing Iran's ballistic missile program. The next day, the US blacklisted an oil shipping network we believe is directed by the IRGC and rejected a proposed from France that would provide some financial relief to Iran
September 5: US state department offered millions of dollars in cash to the Indian captain of that ship that had been seized and released in exchange for steering the ship to a country where it could be detained.
September 7: Iran started injecting gas into advanced centrifuges to increase its enriched uranium stockpile
September 10: Trump fired John Bolton, allegedly over a disagreement about Iranian sanctions
Then the attack on Saudi Aramco happens. On Sept. 14, Houthi rebels claimed responsibility. Mike Pompeo almost immediately blamed Iran.
September 24: Trump bashes Iran in a speech to the UN General Assembly.
November 4: More sanctions, this time on Supreme Leader's inner circle (a son, the head of the judiciary, senior military figures, the chief of staff)
November 6: Iran became to inject uranium gas into centrifuges at another facility
November 7: the US navy launches operations in Bahrain to protect shipping in the gulf
November 15: protests break out in Iran over a 300% increase in fuel prices. Amnesty International says about 300 people were killed in the protests. Iran's government shuts down internet access
November 22: the US imposes sanctions on Iran's communications minister for censorship
November 27: Iranian agents arrest 8 people they say are linked to the CIA
December 4: US Navy warship seized missile parts from a boat in the arabian Sea that it believed were linked to Iran
December 7: A brief moment of good news! Iran exchanges US citizen for an Iranian scientist that had been detained in the US
December 8: Iran's president announces what he calls a new "budget of resistance" to help reduce the hardship of sanctions on the Iranian people. Included a 15% wage increase for public-sector employees
December 11: US imposes sanctions on IRan's biggest airline and its shipping industry related to Yemen
December 19: US restricts visa for Iranian officials and sanctions 2 Iranian judges related to Iran's response to the fuel price protests
December 27: Rocket attack on an Iraqi military base kills a US contractor and wounds several service members. US blamed a militia backed by Iran
December 29: US hits sites in Iraq and Syria belonging to that militia. Al Jazeera says sources claim 25 fighters, including 4 commanders, were killed and 55 others were wounded.
December 31: Militia members adn supporters broke into the US embassy in Baghdad, smashing a main door and setting parts of the perimeter on fire. US troops and Iraqi security forces fired tear gas and stun grenades at the protestors. The Iraqi government asks Iranian PMF (umbrella group for Iran-backed militias) to end the protests and they do the next day. They say that the protestors achieved their aim: ""we rubbed America's nose in the dirt"
January 2: Mark Esper says there are some indications Iran might be planning attacks on US interests in the Middle East
January 3: US air raid at Iraq's Baghdad airport kills Qassem Soleimani, the head of the Quds Force, and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the deputy commander of Iran baked militias known as the Popular Mobilisation Forces or PMF. Axios: "In authorizing the targeted killing of top Iranian general Qasem Soleimani, President Trump chose his lifetime instinct for projecting strength over his vocal aversion to foreign intervention."
January 3-4: US government urges US citizens to leave Iraq immediately, sends 3000 more service members (adding to 5,200 troops already in Iraq); air strikes targeting the PMF north of Baghdad killed six people and wounded 3 critically. Trump tweets that the US will target 52 high level sites important to Iran and Iranian culture "very fast and very hard" if Iran retaliates. The 52 sites represent the 52 hostages taken in 1979. This would almost certainly violate domestic and international law.
January 5: thousands of mourners in the streets of Iran grieving Soleimani; Iraqi parliament holds emergency session and votes to oust thousands of US service members in Iraq; US military announces it will half fight against ISIS in Iraq; Iran state television reports that Iran will no longer abide by the JCPOA.